美国希望与塔利班签署和平协议

美国政府正在寻求与阿富汗塔利班达成一项和平协议。尽管谈判步履维艰，但达成协议是可能的。然而，塔利班坚持要求美国释放5名关塔纳摩囚犯作为先决条件。

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A picture made available on 09 October 2008 shows Taliban militants standing guard as their spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid (not in picture) talks with a journalist in the mountains of Afghanistan volatile Helmand province a hotbed of Taliban militants, 07 October 2008. The Taliban spokesman said that the ongoing mediation of Saudi Arabia for resolving the conflicts between Taliban and Afghan government is being done without the consent of Taliban's supreme leader Mullah Omar and they will not support the talks until 70,000 international forces withdraw from the country. Following two years of strategic stalemate in the military fronts, and mounting public opinion pressure in western countries which have soldiers in Afghanistan, to end the war, Afghan and western officials have joined a chorus to call for peace with militants. EPA/STRINGER +++(c) dpa - Report+++ — 塔利班成员图像来源: picture-alliance/dpa

(德国之声中文网)现在，就连美国政府也不再相信，阿富汗战争只能通过军事手段来解决。美国国务院一位发言人说："政治对话是实现持久和平与持久稳定的最可靠途径"。近两年来，华盛顿政府一直在寻求通过谈判找到解决方案。但是去年三月份，塔利班中断了谈判，原因是他们提出的释放关塔那摩监狱五名高级成员的要求没有迅速得到满足。

可满足的要求？

双方的要求早已经明确：美国要求塔利班停止战斗，尊重阿富汗宪法，断绝与"基地"恐怖组织的联络。塔利班要求所有外国军队撤离阿富汗，释放被监禁的盟友和承认塔利班运动。

联合国基地组织和塔利班观察员小组负责人理查德·巴雷特（Richard Barrett）认为，所有这些要求原则上来说都是可以实现的。而且，2014年阿富汗国际安全援助部队撤离阿富汗之后，美国仍在阿富汗留下一些部队估计也不会有障碍。"巴雷特说，务实的塔利班会认为，"国际部队的存在将能够对协议起到一种担保作用，将有助于他们真正地参与政府工作。"巴雷特还认为，塔利班承认"宪法"也不是不可能的 - 但条件必须是承认宪法并不意味着承认他们所痛恨的卡尔扎伊政府，而是由各方谈判制定一部新的宪法。

ADVANCE FOR RELEASE MONDAY, SEPT. 3, 2012, AT 12:01 A.M. EDT - FILE - In this Sunday, Aug. 5, 2012 file photo, Pakistani Taliban patrol in their stronghold of Shawal in the Pakistani tribal region of South Waziristan. In the Pakistani tribal regions that harbor al-Qaida and a cauldron of other jihadist groups, militants from Central Asia, China, Turkey and even Germany are growing in number, eclipsing Arabs and possibly raising new challenges not just for the U.S. but for Europe, Russia and China, say intelligence officials, analysts and residents of the area. (Foto: Ishtiaq Mahsud, File/AP/dapd) — 塔利班成员图像来源: AP

塔利班内部意见不一

然而最大的问题是，塔利班领导层内部是否能够就与美国签署协议统一立场。部分塔利班成员断然拒绝与美国谈判，另一部分人则认为与美国谈判只是作为一种战术。作为实用主义者的塔利班成员列举了阿迦岩·穆塔西姆（ Agha Jan Motasim）事件。这位前塔利班政府的财政部长在呼吁政治解决阿富汗冲突以及反对"基地"恐怖组织的声明后，于两年前在巴基斯坦城市卡拉奇遭到枪击，能够死里逃生简直是个奇迹。

尚未解决的囚犯问题

在开始谈判之前，必须首先澄清被关押的囚犯问题。塔利班已经非常清楚地表明，只要美国政府拒绝将5名被关押在关塔那摩监狱的塔利班囚犯与自2009年被俘以来被他们关押的5名美国士兵进行交换，他们就绝不会继续进行谈判。美国国务院的一位发言人说，"美国政府还没有决定移交关塔纳摩的塔利班囚犯"。

此外，美国总统奥巴马目前正在进行竞选活动。"国际危机小组"智囊团的专家龙德勒（Candace Rondeaux）认为在11月大选前释放包括前塔利班政权国防部副部长在内的5名塔利班成员是不可能的事情。况且这位副部长对成千上万的什叶派穆斯林的死亡负有责任。

epa03306252 A group of twenty one former Taliban militants after surrendering their weapons during a reconciliation ceremony in Herat, Afghanistan, 14 July 2012. Afghan President Hamid Karzai challenged the supreme leader of the Taliban insurgents, Mullah Omar, on 12 July to take part in elections. "Come to Afghanistan, lay down strangers' arms and establish a political party here with your followers. Run for election and if you get people's votes, then enjoy it," Karzai said at a press conference in his fortified palace The president has repeatedly appealed to Taliban militants to lay down their arms and join the political process but the rebels have rejected his appeals. Earlier this year, the rebels agreed to open a liaison office in the Gulf state of Qatar to talk with US officials, but they suspended the talks soon after, referring to "unacceptable conditions" for them to continue. EPA/JALIL REZAYEE +++(c) dpa - Bildfunk+++ — 塔利班成员图像来源: picture-alliance/dpa

作者：Dennis Stute 编译：李京慧

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