1. 跳转至内容
  2. 跳转至主菜单
  3. 跳转到更多DW网站

朝鲜可能随时再次启动核试验?

2012年12月29日

根据专家估计,朝鲜已经修复了因洪水给核试验设施带来的损失,平壤一旦作出决定,即可在两周内再次开启核试验。

https://p.dw.com/p/17B8I
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) talks with officials at the General Satellite Control and Command Center before the launch of the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket carrying the second version of Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite at West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Cholsan county, North Pyongan province December 12, 2012, in this picture released by the North's KCNA news agency in Pyongyang December 13, 2012. REUTERS/KCNA (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY) THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS
图像来源: Reuters

(德国之声中文网)美国约翰霍金斯大学朝鲜问题研究所网站"北纬38"(38 North)的专家根据卫星采集的最新照片进行分析,并从结果推断,朝鲜已经修复了洪水对其核试验设施的破坏,一旦接到政治命令,即可在两周之内实施地下核试验。卫星最近一次采集照片记录是12月13日的情况,从当日的图片上来看,位于丰溪的核试验设施被认为已经达到"保持战备的状态"。

chi 2912 Nordkorea - MP3-Stereo

不过,该学术网站在本周四(12月27日)发表的一份报告中还表示,从试验设施一条隧道流淌出水流可以推测,该设施仍存在其他技术问题。另外在卫星图片上还可以看到"未能确认的结构设施",看起来似乎是为了应对不佳天气而特别制成的。

A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control centre in Cholsan county, North Pyongan province in this video released by KCNA in Pyongyang December 13, 2012. KCNA said the video was taken December 12, 2012. REUTERS/KCNA (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS
就在本月中旬,朝鲜在一片反对声中刚刚将"光明星3号"卫星送上太空。图像来源: Reuters

即使目前还没有任何迹象表明朝鲜即将进行核试验,美国和韩国对平壤随时都可以会下达命令进行试验表示担心。一些专家怀疑,朝鲜领导人金正恩会置国际社会的愤怒以及制裁于不顾而实施核试验,而这将特别会使中国大为恼火。

第三次核试验?平壤已经先后在2006年和2009进行过两次核武试验。美国军控协会(Arms Control Association)执行主席金柏尔(Daryl Kimball)说:"如果朝鲜进行第三次核试验,其核技术可能会发展到有能力在

South Korea's conservative President-elect Park Geun-hye speaks during a news conference at the main office of ruling Saenuri Party in Seoul December 20, 2012. Park won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday and will become the country's first female leader, saying she would work to heal a divided society. The words in the background read as "President Park Geun-hye". REUTERS/Woohae Cho (SOUTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)
朴槿惠当选韩国首位女总统,将于明年2月正式上任。图像来源: Reuters

远程导弹上安装核爆炸装置。"国际观察员根据12月12日的卫星照片结果认为,图片显示了一颗远程弹道导弹。联合国禁止朝鲜进行核试验。平壤一直坚持,研发火箭技术是为了太空探索之用。

美国现在担忧,平壤可以研制出体积足够小的爆炸装置,这种装置能够安装在远程弹道导弹并可达至美国。普遍认为,朝鲜拥有足够的钚可以制成多个技术简单的原子弹。在2010年,人们还发现了朝鲜研制铀浓缩的工厂。然而,要制成缩小弹头和一个全面的核武器计划需要进一步进行多个实验。

根据专家估计,美国总统奥巴马不久之前竞选成功得以连任,而韩国也选出新总统朴槿惠(Park Geun Hye),这两个事件可能会使金正恩强硬的态度产生微弱转变。首尔民营和平研究所的昌永锡(Chang Yong Seok)表示:"我认为,相比核试验,朝鲜在明年更又可能会把精力放在恢复经济上面。"

SOHUNG COUNTY, NORTH KOREA, OCTOBER 17: North Korean women queue to receive corn at a public distribution centre on October 17, 2005 in Sohung County, north Hwanghae province, North Korea. According to the WFP website North Korea has a 'lack of agricultural inputs such as fertilisers' and a 'limited capacity to access international capital markets and import food'. (Photo by Gerald Bourke/WFP via Getty Images)
在上个世纪90年代,朝鲜经历了灾难性的大饥荒,其经济至今没有恢复,根据联合国的估计,有三分之一的朝鲜人都营养不良。图像来源: Getty Images

资料来源:德国国际通讯社              编译:文木

责编:叶宣