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北韓可能隨時再次啟動核試驗?

2012年12月29日

根據專家估計,北韓已經修復了因洪水給核試驗設施帶來的損失,平壤一旦作出決定,即可在兩周內再次開啟核試驗。

https://p.dw.com/p/17B8I
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) talks with officials at the General Satellite Control and Command Center before the launch of the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket carrying the second version of Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite at West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Cholsan county, North Pyongan province December 12, 2012, in this picture released by the North's KCNA news agency in Pyongyang December 13, 2012. REUTERS/KCNA (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY) THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS
圖片來源: Reuters

(德國之聲中文網)美國約翰霍金斯大學北韓問題研究所網站"北緯38"(38 North)的專家根據衛星採集的最新照片進行分析,並從結果推斷,北韓已經修復了洪水對其核試驗設施的破壞,一旦接到政治命令,即可在兩周之內實施地下核試驗。衛星最近一次採集照片記錄是12月13日的情況,從當日的圖片上來看,位於豐溪的核試驗設施被認為已經達到"保持戰備的狀態"。

chi 2912 Nordkorea - MP3-Stereo

不過,該學術網站在本周四(12月27日)發表的一份報告中還表示,從試驗設施一條隧道流淌出水流可以推測,該設施仍存在其他技術問題。另外在衛星圖片上還可以看到"未能確認的結構設施",看起來似乎是為了應對不佳天氣而特別製成的。

A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control centre in Cholsan county, North Pyongan province in this video released by KCNA in Pyongyang December 13, 2012. KCNA said the video was taken December 12, 2012. REUTERS/KCNA (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS
就在本月中旬,北韓在一片反對聲中剛剛將"光明星3號"衛星送上太空。圖片來源: Reuters

即使目前還沒有任何跡象表明北韓即將進行核試驗,美國和韓國對平壤隨時都可以會下達命令進行試驗表示擔心。一些專家懷疑,北韓領導人金正恩會置國際社會的憤怒以及制裁於不顧而實施核試驗,而這將特別會使中國大為惱火。

第三次核試驗?平壤已經先後在2006年和2009進行過兩次核武試驗。美國軍控協會(Arms Control Association)執行主席金柏爾(Daryl Kimball)說:"如果北韓進行第三次核試驗,其核技術可能會發展到有能力在

South Korea's conservative President-elect Park Geun-hye speaks during a news conference at the main office of ruling Saenuri Party in Seoul December 20, 2012. Park won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday and will become the country's first female leader, saying she would work to heal a divided society. The words in the background read as "President Park Geun-hye". REUTERS/Woohae Cho (SOUTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)
朴槿惠當選韓國首位女總統,將於明年2月正式上任。圖片來源: Reuters

遠程導彈上安裝核爆炸裝置。"國際觀察員根據12月12日的衛星照片結果認為,圖片顯示了一顆遠程彈道導彈。聯合國禁止北韓進行核試驗。平壤一直堅持,研發火箭技術是為了太空探索之用。

美國現在擔憂,平壤可以研製出體積足夠小的爆炸裝置,這種裝置能夠安裝在遠程彈道導彈並可達至美國。普遍認為,北韓擁有足夠的鈈可以製成多個技術簡單的原子彈。在2010年,人們還發現了北韓研製鈾濃縮的工廠。然而,要製成縮小彈頭和一個全面的核武器計劃需要進一步進行多個實驗。

根據專家估計,美國總统歐巴馬不久之前競選成功得以連任,而韓國也選出新總統朴槿惠(Park Geun Hye),這兩個事件可能會使金正恩強硬的態度產生微弱轉變。首爾民營和平研究所的昌永錫(Chang Yong Seok)表示:"我認為,相比核試驗,北韓在明年更又可能會把精力放在恢復經濟上面。"

SOHUNG COUNTY, NORTH KOREA, OCTOBER 17: North Korean women queue to receive corn at a public distribution centre on October 17, 2005 in Sohung County, north Hwanghae province, North Korea. According to the WFP website North Korea has a 'lack of agricultural inputs such as fertilisers' and a 'limited capacity to access international capital markets and import food'. (Photo by Gerald Bourke/WFP via Getty Images)
在上個世紀90年代,北韓經歷了災難性的大飢荒,其經濟至今沒有恢復,根據聯合國的估計,有三分之一的北韓人都營養不良。圖片來源: Getty Images

資料來源:德國國際通訊社              編譯:文木

責編:葉宣