DR Congo: 'Diplomacy has failed'

The M23 rebels backed by Rwanda have expanded their control over the provincial capital of Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo following their invasion on Monday.

After the early-morning incursion, chaotic conditions prevailed in the city of almost 2 million people. The United Nations said it was "deeply concerned," and humanitarian organizations have spoken of an immense need for aid.

"It's a predictable escalation given the failure of all previous peace initiatives," Jona Thiel of the German international relations and security policy think tank KFIBS told DW.

Hardened fronts

The region faces deeply rooted, primarily ethnically motivated tensions. According to Thiel, these conflicts cannot be resolved through negotiations in the short- or medium- term. He further explained that a negotiated peace deal would not automatically lead to pacification.

"One should not delude oneself into thinking that the conflict potential between the various militias would cease overnight with the signing of an agreement, if such an agreement ever materializes," he said

The main antagonists in the political conflict are Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame, Rwanda's president whose government in Kigali has increasingly supported the M23. Thiel says both failed to deviate from their maximalist positions. 

"For Kigali, the M23 is a group that would represent Rwandan interests in any future negotiations. Kigali, therefore, wants to recognize the M23 as a negotiating partner. [The government in] Kinshasa, on the other hand, views the M23 as a terrorist group and refuses to recognize them as a legitimate negotiating partner."

A rapprochement between the two sides seems unlikely under these circumstances, agreed Jakob Kerstan, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Kinshasa, which is affiliated with Germany's conservative CDU party. Kerstan told DW that Tshisekedi has completely failed to ensure security in the east of the country. 

"Félix Tshisekedi has replaced the army chief multiple times, changed the defense minister, hired Romanian mercenaries, brought in East African Community troops and then SADC (Southern African Development Community) forces, initiated military cooperation with Burundi and Uganda, and the UN mission Monusco is also still present," Kerstan said.

"And despite all this, he has been unable to maintain control over the heart of the region, the city of Goma." As a result, the president is increasingly under pressure.

All peace initiatives have failed

Mediations have repeatedly failed or led to only short-lived agreements. For instance, the government of DR Congo and the M23 signed a peace treaty in Nairobi, Kenya, and the group vanished from the scene. But at the end of 2021, it returned with new attacks.

In recent years, there have been two other major African peace initiatives: Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta brought the conflicting parties together again in Nairobi in 2022 — but without the M23. This process failed.

Recently, the international community placed its hopes in Angola's mediation efforts. The "Luanda Roadmap," under President João Lourenço, was supported by the SADC, the African Union, the US and the European Union. However, the troubled negotiations eventually collapsed in December 2024 when Kagame canceled a last-minute meeting with Tshisekedi.

International support for Angola's peace process

The so-called "International Contact Group for the Great Lakes Region" politically — and indirectly financially — supported the Luanda process. Its members include representatives from Germany, Denmark, Belgium, the European Union, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the US and the UK.

This group has stated that the Luanda process must continue. It also demands that the M23 and Rwanda's armed forces cease their offensive, grant humanitarian workers access to Goma, and withdraw. Additionally, Western countries aim to assist in economically rebuilding the resource-rich area.

The goal is to transport the region's resources via new trade routes, such as the Lobito Corridor through DR Congo, Zambia and Angola, funded by Europe and the US. According to the International Contact Group's plan, the proceeds from the mineral trade should eventually foster prosperity and peace in the region.

What's next?

In February, Angola will take over the presidency of the African Union. President Lourenco and his Foreign Minister Tete Antonio have already announced plans to use this position to launch a new diplomatic offensive for peace in eastern DR Congo.

"Despite the failure of previous negotiations, there is no way forward without further peace efforts under Angola's mediation. This is about the security of the people, and of course also about resources and lucrative business opportunities," Nkikinamo Tussamba, an Angolan expert on eastern DR Congo, told DW.

Tussamba added that, naturally, Rwanda is also interested in the region's resources. "Rwanda wants peace in the region, but peace on its terms, a peace that considers its economic interests. That's why the Kagame regime has sabotaged the peace process driven by Angola with the support of the US."

According to Tussamba, a diplomatic solution through the Luanda process will have to be reached sooner or later.

Kerstan from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation shares a similar view. "Western countries, including Germany, insist the Luanda process must continue."

Now, with the M23 militias increasingly gaining military ground, the Congolese side will apply more pressure internationally, especially on the Western countries, to exert pressure on Rwanda.

Germany and Europe's Role

What can the German government do? "The German government could, for example, immediately stop development aid to Rwanda. This happened back in 2012 and 2013," Kerstan suggested.

"The [Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development] has only issued a rather weak statement so far, but it could also say: 'We are stopping development aid to Rwanda until the support for the M23 ends.'"

Kerstan added that the Rwandan state budget still largely depends on Western donors. "If Western countries unite and say they will no longer provide funding, it would impact Rwanda. [Germany] should adjust [its] view of the Rwandan government."

The prospects for genuine peace in the Great Lakes region are overall very poor. "As long as no trust base even remotely exists, there will be no pacification," Thiel, the KFIBS expert, said.

Sandrine Blanchard contributed to this report.

Edited by: Sarah Hucal