African Union leadership race: Who will succeed Mahamat?

The candidates in the forthcoming election for African Union Commission chair (AUC) are Raila Odinga of Kenya, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. 

On December 13, the three discussed their visions for the continent in a first-ever election debate broadcast from the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

All of them addressed the issues of security in Africa, the economic integration of the continent, and AU reforms.

Raila Odinga wants two UN permanent seats for Africa

The Kenyan opposition leader and former prime minister has pledged to work with African leaders to secure two permanent seats for the continent at the UN Security Council.

Odinga argues that African representation, complete with veto powers, is long overdue and critical for fairness on the global stage.

"If the heads of state see it fit that I should head [the AUC], I will work with all the leadership of the continent to ensure that we get a fair treatment on the international scene," he said during the AU's Mjadala Afrika Debate.

Odinga attributed Africa's underrpresentation to the timing of the UN Security Council's formation, when much of the continent was under colonial rule. It is unacceptable that the continent of 1.4 billion people is excluded while Europe holds three permanent seats, he said.

He also pledged to prioritize education, healthcare, infrastructure development, and intra-Africa trade. Africa, he added, must fund its own peace and end its reliance on foreign powers.

"What remains is action, and what I want to promise the African people is that I will lead from the front to ensure we achieve the visions of the founding fathers of our continent," Odinga said.

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf wants a unified Africa responsible for peace

The long-serving foreign minister of Djibouti has pledged to strengthen regional security and foster unity across linguistic and cultural divides in Africa.

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf argues that African must take charge of the peace and security agenda in Africa because foreign support has hindered sustainable progress.

"We have to be outspoken and frank. We make decisions at the [AU] Peace and Security Council level, but these resolutions are not implemented," Youssouf said in the debate.

A lack of political will is a major obstacle to achieving lasting peace, he added. "Our Peace and Security Council is not proactive. It reacts to crises when they occur and happen. This has to change."

Africa's standby forces are underutilized and, for lack of resources, forced to rely on the European Union and other foreign partners. The UN has financed the AU Mission in Somalia since 2007, he added.

Richard Randriamandrato wants Africa's economic potential unlocked

The one time Malagasy foreign minister has pledged to take gradual steps toward full trade liberalization to ensure inclusive economic growth.

Richard Randriamandrato says intra-African trade is low at just 12.6%, lagging significantly behind regions like the EU.

"I'm an economist and a finance person. First of all, to develop the economy at the continental level, we need to develop trade through liberalization. In theory, trade can effectively become a source of economic dynamism," Randriamandrato said in the Mjadala Afrika Debate.

"We need to start moderately so that, slowly by slowly, we shall, at the end, see the youth and women have opportunities to participate in the large continental market."

Randriamandrato also sees a need to empower regional economic blocs and reduce foreign influence in Africa's security affairs.

What analysts make of the candidates

The AUC election process requires candidates to secure a two-thirds majority from the AU's 55 member states, a feat that often demands regional alliances and strategic negotiations.

Diplomacy expert Edgar Githua told DW that in the election debate, Youssouf and Odinga came up as frontrunners in the race to lead Africa's most important grouping. 

"He [Raila Odinga] tried to give a good account of himself, but granted of course the Djibouti candidate came out very strong, came out very persuasive," Githau told DW.

And then of course, don't forget his [Youssouf] command and mastery of three foreign languages — three official languages that Africa uses. That was also very impressive."

Githua believes that cultural and religious factors could favor Youssouf too. "Everything so far, going by those dynamics everything is tilted in the favor of the Djibouti candidate."

There is little debate among social media users in Africa about the three candidates. But in a statement during the leadership debate, Konjit SineGiorgis, the chairperson of the AU Panel of Eminent Africans expressed some disappointment.

"I regret that the fact that our continent could not also have a female candidate and place the the AU Commission on the right side of history. This is a serious homework we have to take into consideration," she said.

Edited by Benita van Eyssen