WEBVTT

1
00:00:01.080 --> 00:00:04.720
This eco-city aims to be completely carbon-neutral.

2
00:00:04.720 --> 00:00:07.840
Internet-famous 'The Line' wants to house 9 million people

3
00:00:07.840 --> 00:00:11.480
in a 170-kilometer-long strip of skyscrapers

4
00:00:11.480 --> 00:00:14.200
towering 500 meters above sea-level.

5
00:00:14.200 --> 00:00:17.240
And that's just one small part of a much bigger plan

6
00:00:17.240 --> 00:00:18.280
called NEOM.

7
00:00:19.080 --> 00:00:21.440
No roads, no cars, zero emissions

8
00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:23.560
and run completely on renewable energy,

9
00:00:23.840 --> 00:00:27.840
this is the glitzy face of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 –

10
00:00:27.840 --> 00:00:31.160
an ambitious roadmap to move the world's largest oil power

11
00:00:31.160 --> 00:00:32.960
away from fossil fuels.

12
00:00:34.080 --> 00:00:37.840
"The world needs NEOM, because the world needs change."

13
00:00:38.080 --> 00:00:41.080
It all sounds great on paper, but there's skepticism about

14
00:00:41.080 --> 00:00:43.920
whether Saudi Arabia can actually pull it off.

15
00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:45.400
"You know, the Saudis have been

16
00:00:46.040 --> 00:00:49.480
making a lot of wildly over-ambitious goals."

17
00:00:49.840 --> 00:00:52.120
The Kingdom is looking to massively expand

18
00:00:52.120 --> 00:00:53.440
its green energy production

19
00:00:53.440 --> 00:00:57.680
to help diversify its economy and reduce dependency on oil.

20
00:00:57.680 --> 00:01:00.040
It could be a huge step in the world's quest

21
00:01:00.040 --> 00:01:01.520
to halt climate change.

22
00:01:02.360 --> 00:01:05.440
But is Saudi Arabia really quitting oil?

23
00:01:10.600 --> 00:01:14.640
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was only founded in 1932.

24
00:01:14.640 --> 00:01:17.800
As a young nation, its infrastructure was fairly basic

25
00:01:17.800 --> 00:01:20.400
and the new monarchy had to rely on outside help

26
00:01:20.400 --> 00:01:23.160
in order to tap into its massive oil reserves.

27
00:01:23.440 --> 00:01:27.200
Which is why a US-owned company, later renamed Aramco,

28
00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:31.880
was the one that first struck oil on Saudi-Arabian land in 1938.

29
00:01:32.040 --> 00:01:33.760
But it wasn't long before the Saudis

30
00:01:33.760 --> 00:01:35.680
wrested away control of the company.

31
00:01:35.800 --> 00:01:38.600
In 1950, Aramco was convinced to split profits

32
00:01:38.600 --> 00:01:39.440
down the middle

33
00:01:39.600 --> 00:01:41.360
rather than risk King Ibn Saud

34
00:01:41.360 --> 00:01:43.600
nationalizing the Kingdom's oil industry.

35
00:01:43.960 --> 00:01:46.600
A blossoming diplomatic relationship developed.

36
00:01:46.600 --> 00:01:49.640
In return for fossil fuels, the US offered Saudi Arabia

37
00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:52.200
crucial political and security support.

38
00:01:52.520 --> 00:01:54.240
From there, Saudi Arabia succeeded

39
00:01:54.240 --> 00:01:57.000
where many other developing countries have failed –

40
00:01:57.000 --> 00:01:59.400
it capitalized on its natural resources.

41
00:01:59.880 --> 00:02:02.840
Aramco is now 98% Saudi-owned

42
00:02:02.840 --> 00:02:05.520
and valued at about $2 trillion.

43
00:02:05.720 --> 00:02:10.720
It posted a record profit of $161 billion in 2022.

44
00:02:11.320 --> 00:02:15.440
And this war chest is now driving the Kingdom's Vision 2030.

45
00:02:15.560 --> 00:02:19.120
It's a plan that sounds as ambitious as it is paradoxical:

46
00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:20.960
a country built on oil...

47
00:02:20.960 --> 00:02:23.240
wants to move away from oil.

48
00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:24.280
But why?

49
00:02:28.040 --> 00:02:31.280
"Today I announce that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

50
00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:34.800
aims to reach net zero by 2060."

51
00:02:35.080 --> 00:02:37.960
De facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

52
00:02:37.960 --> 00:02:40.280
is the face of Vision 2030.

53
00:02:40.280 --> 00:02:42.240
"It's an attempt to diversify the economy,

54
00:02:42.240 --> 00:02:44.280
reduce its dependance on oil,

55
00:02:44.560 --> 00:02:48.880
and turn it into a more vibrant society

56
00:02:48.880 --> 00:02:50.120
that also reaps the benefits."

57
00:02:50.720 --> 00:02:52.360
This is Karim Elgendy,

58
00:02:52.360 --> 00:02:54.280
a climate consultant based in London,

59
00:02:54.280 --> 00:02:56.120
who focuses on the Middle East.

60
00:02:56.760 --> 00:02:58.560
"As the world moves away,

61
00:02:58.560 --> 00:03:01.400
or signals that it wants to move away,

62
00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:03.840
from buying this oil and gas,

63
00:03:03.840 --> 00:03:07.360
there's limited time before

64
00:03:08.160 --> 00:03:10.400
that becomes a risk to the Saudi economy.

65
00:03:10.400 --> 00:03:12.960
So in a way, it's in a race against time."

66
00:03:12.960 --> 00:03:14.960
That requires a major overhaul.

67
00:03:15.080 --> 00:03:17.480
When Saudi Arabia announced Vision 2030,

68
00:03:17.480 --> 00:03:20.880
oil and gas accounted for 50% of Saudi's GDP,

69
00:03:20.880 --> 00:03:22.600
70% of government revenue,

70
00:03:22.600 --> 00:03:24.840
and 90% of export earnings.

71
00:03:25.440 --> 00:03:29.120
The diversification plans include eye-catching 'giga projects'

72
00:03:29.120 --> 00:03:30.600
such as NEOM,

73
00:03:30.960 --> 00:03:33.720
entertainment, sports and culture hub Qiddiya,

74
00:03:33.720 --> 00:03:36.720
which aims to host millions of visitors each year,

75
00:03:37.400 --> 00:03:39.400
and the Red Sea Project,

76
00:03:39.400 --> 00:03:42.880
a string of luxury eco-tourism destinations.

77
00:03:42.880 --> 00:03:47.360
NEOM alone is expected to cost more than $500 billion.

78
00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:51.320
As for green energy, the Saudis are also going big:

79
00:03:51.560 --> 00:03:53.760
they want to get 50% of their energy

80
00:03:53.760 --> 00:03:56.600
from renewable sources by 2030.

81
00:03:56.800 --> 00:04:00.320
Currently they're powered by 99% fossil fuels.

82
00:04:00.800 --> 00:04:03.240
"As everybody knows, Saudi Arabia's economy has been

83
00:04:03.240 --> 00:04:06.000
kind of a one-trick pony for a long time."

84
00:04:06.200 --> 00:04:10.440
This is Jim Crane, who specializes in energy geopolitics.

85
00:04:10.440 --> 00:04:11.720
"International organizations,

86
00:04:11.720 --> 00:04:13.640
the IMF, the World Bank etc.,

87
00:04:13.640 --> 00:04:16.920
have been urging the Saudis to diversify their economy

88
00:04:16.920 --> 00:04:18.320
for a long time.

89
00:04:18.320 --> 00:04:22.360
Finally those warnings have been taking hold."

90
00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:23.840
The initial target?

91
00:04:23.840 --> 00:04:27.400
About 54 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity.

92
00:04:27.400 --> 00:04:31.160
Saudi recently said they're sitting at just 2.8 gigawatts,

93
00:04:31.160 --> 00:04:34.880
while there's about 21-24 gigawatts under development.

94
00:04:35.040 --> 00:04:38.120
"I'm not a betting man, but if you had asked me whether

95
00:04:38.320 --> 00:04:40.360
a 50% target can be achieved...

96
00:04:40.360 --> 00:04:43.000
I would say that looks very difficult."

97
00:04:43.240 --> 00:04:44.840
Yet according to Saudi media,

98
00:04:44.840 --> 00:04:48.800
Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently targeted

99
00:04:48.800 --> 00:04:52.120
130 gigawatts of renewable energy –

100
00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:54.320
more than double the former target.

101
00:04:54.320 --> 00:04:57.440
Planet A's interview requests have fallen on deaf ears.

102
00:04:57.440 --> 00:04:59.400
But either someone's math doesn't add up,

103
00:04:59.400 --> 00:05:02.680
or there is indeed cause for such optimism.

104
00:05:05.480 --> 00:05:08.160
Saudi Arabia has a hell of a lot going for it

105
00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:09.760
when it comes to clean energy.

106
00:05:10.040 --> 00:05:12.400
While data analytics company Global Data

107
00:05:12.400 --> 00:05:16.360
ranks them just 45th in the world for solar-power capacity,

108
00:05:16.360 --> 00:05:19.800
the World Bank places them 7th in terms of potential.

109
00:05:20.360 --> 00:05:22.320
Arid and mountainous geography,

110
00:05:22.320 --> 00:05:23.920
as well as a long coastline,

111
00:05:23.920 --> 00:05:27.080
means large parts of the country are very windy –

112
00:05:27.080 --> 00:05:29.360
ideal conditions for power generation.

113
00:05:29.640 --> 00:05:32.760
They really couldn't be better placed to turn green.

114
00:05:32.760 --> 00:05:36.920
"Net zero in the Kingdom actually makes a lot of sense.

115
00:05:37.880 --> 00:05:41.040
They've got great geography and great geology

116
00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:42.560
to reach net zero.

117
00:05:42.760 --> 00:05:45.560
They've got a lot of vacant land right outside their cities

118
00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:47.200
that gets a lot of sunshine.

119
00:05:48.440 --> 00:05:53.480
It's a country that has spare cash laying around, right?

120
00:05:53.480 --> 00:05:56.480
In the central bank and in investment funds.

121
00:05:57.320 --> 00:05:59.640
So they are able to build,

122
00:05:59.640 --> 00:06:02.200
especially solar-power-generation projects,

123
00:06:02.200 --> 00:06:04.240
at a really, really low cost."

124
00:06:04.760 --> 00:06:08.240
But building up large-scale infrastructure takes time,

125
00:06:08.240 --> 00:06:11.320
and more cash than the Kingdom itself is willing to spend –

126
00:06:11.640 --> 00:06:15.000
which is why Saudi Arabia has been courting foreign investors.

127
00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:17.800
So far, however, they haven't exactly been banging

128
00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:19.360
on the gates of the Kingdom.

129
00:06:20.680 --> 00:06:22.840
Saudi Arabia had expected to boost

130
00:06:22.840 --> 00:06:24.640
annual Foreign Direct Investment

131
00:06:24.640 --> 00:06:27.360
to $19 billion by 2020.

132
00:06:27.840 --> 00:06:32.640
As of 2021, they'd only pulled in $5.5 billion.

133
00:06:33.440 --> 00:06:35.560
Investors were spooked after the murder

134
00:06:35.560 --> 00:06:38.640
of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018,

135
00:06:38.760 --> 00:06:42.000
when Saudi Arabia's reputation took a nosedive.

136
00:06:42.640 --> 00:06:44.640
While there has also been concern

137
00:06:44.640 --> 00:06:48.640
that some of these ambitions are quite simply, a bit loopy.

138
00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:53.800
"There's some skepticism around some of these giga projects.

139
00:06:53.800 --> 00:06:55.760
Whether they're financially viable

140
00:06:55.760 --> 00:06:58.240
or if there's going to be much of a return from them.

141
00:06:58.240 --> 00:06:59.960
But even speaking to some Saudis

142
00:06:59.960 --> 00:07:02.000
about some of the giga projects,

143
00:07:02.000 --> 00:07:05.240
there are doubts and skepticism."

144
00:07:05.880 --> 00:07:07.080
Another question mark is

145
00:07:07.080 --> 00:07:10.120
Saudi Arabia's many desalination plants.

146
00:07:10.320 --> 00:07:12.480
The population heavily depends on them

147
00:07:12.480 --> 00:07:13.960
for fresh drinking water.

148
00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:15.960
But removing brine from saltwater

149
00:07:15.960 --> 00:07:17.960
is extremely energy-intensive,

150
00:07:18.040 --> 00:07:22.080
and transforming these oil-run plants won't be an easy task.

151
00:07:22.840 --> 00:07:26.760
"That means that for every gigawatt that you transition

152
00:07:26.760 --> 00:07:28.960
from fossil-fuel electricity generation

153
00:07:28.960 --> 00:07:31.520
into renewables electricity generation,

154
00:07:31.520 --> 00:07:34.360
you have to find a solution for desalination."

155
00:07:34.880 --> 00:07:37.200
Mohammed bin Salman nevertheless appears

156
00:07:37.200 --> 00:07:39.640
to be giving it a very decent crack.

157
00:07:39.960 --> 00:07:42.520
His success as Saudi ruler could be judged

158
00:07:42.520 --> 00:07:44.280
on this green energy hill.

159
00:07:44.400 --> 00:07:47.560
And the Saudis are indeed talking a big game.

160
00:07:48.160 --> 00:07:50.600
"We need to attend to climate change,

161
00:07:50.600 --> 00:07:53.720
it's an admission from the Saudi Government

162
00:07:53.720 --> 00:07:56.160
that we are up to the challenge."

163
00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:57.440
"Climate change is real

164
00:07:57.440 --> 00:07:59.560
and if we want to leave the world in a better place

165
00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:01.680
than we found it, we have to do something about it.

166
00:08:01.680 --> 00:08:03.680
And we have to do it now."

167
00:08:05.320 --> 00:08:07.000
But... here's the thing:

168
00:08:07.480 --> 00:08:09.280
irrespective of this green vision,

169
00:08:09.280 --> 00:08:13.760
Saudi Arabia isn't exactly plotting a course to quit fossil fuels.

170
00:08:13.760 --> 00:08:15.320
It's quite the opposite.

171
00:08:15.320 --> 00:08:17.880
It still plans to pump out as much oil

172
00:08:17.880 --> 00:08:19.400
as is humanly possible.

173
00:08:19.400 --> 00:08:21.240
And fill its coffers to the brim.

174
00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:25.320
In fact, Saudi Arabia also wants to increase

175
00:08:25.320 --> 00:08:28.200
natural gas production by 50%.

176
00:08:28.200 --> 00:08:30.320
And it's actively searching for new markets

177
00:08:30.320 --> 00:08:32.520
to export its fossil fuels.

178
00:08:32.960 --> 00:08:36.880
"The Saudis have been not just diversifying,

179
00:08:36.880 --> 00:08:40.680
but they're also doubling down on oil as well.

180
00:08:40.680 --> 00:08:43.920
They've been buying a lot of refining capacity

181
00:08:43.920 --> 00:08:45.880
in developing countries.

182
00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:48.920
Their targets lie mainly in Asia...

183
00:08:49.560 --> 00:08:50.800
and Africa.

184
00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:54.160
An investigation involving Britain's Channel 4 recently found

185
00:08:54.160 --> 00:08:56.560
that the Saudis were aiming to "artificially raise"

186
00:08:56.560 --> 00:08:59.480
oil demand in developing African nations,

187
00:08:59.480 --> 00:09:02.560
through cheap cars, supersonic commercial aviation

188
00:09:02.560 --> 00:09:04.120
and floating power plants.

189
00:09:05.040 --> 00:09:08.080
A director for an African climate and energy think tank

190
00:09:08.080 --> 00:09:09.760
described Saudi Arabia as a

191
00:09:09.760 --> 00:09:13.520
"drug dealer trying to get Africa hooked" on oil.

192
00:09:13.520 --> 00:09:16.400
And on the global stage, Saudi Arabia is doing its best

193
00:09:16.400 --> 00:09:18.040
to ensure it's in the driver's seat

194
00:09:18.040 --> 00:09:20.480
when it comes to climate change talks.

195
00:09:20.920 --> 00:09:22.840
"Rather than becoming an obstructionist

196
00:09:22.840 --> 00:09:25.880
and trying to slow down the process at every turn,

197
00:09:25.880 --> 00:09:29.440
it's decided in recent years that it's in its best interest

198
00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:31.440
to jump on the bandwagon,

199
00:09:31.440 --> 00:09:32.960
take part in the negotiations,

200
00:09:32.960 --> 00:09:34.680
become more active participants,

201
00:09:34.680 --> 00:09:39.000
but also try and steer the direction of this negotiation

202
00:09:39.000 --> 00:09:41.400
in a way that serves its own national interest."

203
00:09:41.760 --> 00:09:45.640
That was highlighted most recently at the UN's COP28.

204
00:09:46.360 --> 00:09:48.360
While scientists screamed at the top of their lungs

205
00:09:48.360 --> 00:09:50.520
for an end to fossil fuel production,

206
00:09:50.880 --> 00:09:54.120
Politico uncovered that Saudi Arabia had claimed emissions

207
00:09:54.120 --> 00:09:56.080
from the manufacture and transport

208
00:09:56.080 --> 00:09:58.040
of wind turbines and solar panels

209
00:09:58.040 --> 00:09:59.480
were just as problematic.

210
00:09:59.680 --> 00:10:01.600
They're just a fraction, by the way.

211
00:10:02.240 --> 00:10:04.600
Instead, it wants to divert the world's attention

212
00:10:04.600 --> 00:10:06.760
towards a different solution.

213
00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:09.480
"It argues that the problem, the enemy is the emissions

214
00:10:09.480 --> 00:10:10.840
and not fossil fuels.

215
00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:15.280
And if we manage the carbon in a way by recycling it,

216
00:10:15.280 --> 00:10:18.920
reusing and ultimately capturing and storing it,

217
00:10:18.920 --> 00:10:22.080
then there will be no problem with having some emissions."

218
00:10:22.400 --> 00:10:24.320
There's just one tiny problem:

219
00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:27.240
the tech to do that isn't anywhere near advanced enough.

220
00:10:27.240 --> 00:10:29.000
Skeptics say it's merely a distraction

221
00:10:29.000 --> 00:10:31.040
by fossil-fuel-producing nations

222
00:10:31.040 --> 00:10:34.080
and will funnel investment away from renewable energy.

223
00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:36.200
Karim Elgendy estimates that the tech –

224
00:10:36.200 --> 00:10:37.320
if it works at all –

225
00:10:37.320 --> 00:10:40.600
won't be available at scale until potentially 2040.

226
00:10:41.080 --> 00:10:43.880
"I think 2040 is too far and we don't have enough time.

227
00:10:43.880 --> 00:10:46.680
I accept the technology agnostic approach

228
00:10:46.680 --> 00:10:49.440
that we shouldn't be wedded to one technology

229
00:10:49.440 --> 00:10:51.480
in our drive towards decarbonization.

230
00:10:51.480 --> 00:10:53.120
But to depend on a technology

231
00:10:53.120 --> 00:10:57.880
that isn't available until 2040 at scale is a great risk."

232
00:11:00.680 --> 00:11:02.800
So while Saudi Arabia marches on

233
00:11:02.800 --> 00:11:05.360
into its brave new green energy world,

234
00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:07.920
they're still looking to convince developing countries

235
00:11:07.920 --> 00:11:09.280
to take their oil,

236
00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:12.440
and persuade the world's leaders that managing carbon

237
00:11:12.440 --> 00:11:15.040
is the solution to the climate crisis.

238
00:11:15.040 --> 00:11:17.000
So far, the plan is on track.

239
00:11:17.160 --> 00:11:19.880
Aramco predicts oil demand will actually increase

240
00:11:19.880 --> 00:11:24.280
to 105 million barrels per day in 2025.

241
00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:27.160
"You could argue that if the demand is there,

242
00:11:27.160 --> 00:11:28.520
that they're only satisfying demand.

243
00:11:28.520 --> 00:11:30.840
But that's a completely different conversation

244
00:11:30.840 --> 00:11:34.720
as to whose responsibility does emissions,

245
00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:37.360
whose shoulders does it lie upon,

246
00:11:37.360 --> 00:11:39.440
is it the producers or the consumers."

247
00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:41.520
Saudi's domestic green energy targets

248
00:11:41.520 --> 00:11:44.280
may be cause for lavish announcements such as these.

249
00:11:44.280 --> 00:11:47.480
It could help develop new and more efficient technology.

250
00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:50.000
But don't be fooled, it doesn't look like there's a plan

251
00:11:50.000 --> 00:11:53.440
to help developing countries move in a similar direction.

252
00:11:53.720 --> 00:11:55.520
"The Saudis are going to be able to outcompete

253
00:11:55.520 --> 00:11:58.720
anybody on crude prices.

254
00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:02.200
That's their strategy, to be the last man standing."

255
00:12:02.520 --> 00:12:04.720
For all their talk about fighting climate change

256
00:12:04.720 --> 00:12:07.880
and building a better world in flashy promo videos,

257
00:12:07.880 --> 00:12:10.760
this Arabian leopard hasn't changed its spots.

258
00:12:11.040 --> 00:12:13.920
Quitting oil just isn't a consideration.

259
00:12:13.920 --> 00:12:15.800
Instead they'll just sell it elsewhere,

260
00:12:15.800 --> 00:12:17.680
while cleaning up their own energy system

261
00:12:17.680 --> 00:12:20.400
to meet the world's carbon-reduction targets.

262
00:12:20.520 --> 00:12:22.880
It's a win-win for Saudi Arabia.

263
00:12:23.040 --> 00:12:24.800
And if the Kingdom pulls it off,

264
00:12:24.800 --> 00:12:26.480
it could be in a more powerful

265
00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:29.640
and lucrative position than ever before.

266
00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:32.320
What do you think of Saudi Arabia's plans?

267
00:12:32.600 --> 00:12:34.840
Let us know in the comments and don't forget to subscribe

268
00:12:34.840 --> 00:12:37.169
and give us a thumbs up if you like this video!