Will Uzbekistan's election give Mirziyoyev unlimited power?

Whenever he's asked why Uzbekistan is heading back to the ballot boxes on July 9, Shavkat Mirziyoyev always has a good explanation lined up. According to the president of the Central Asian republic, nothing less than urgent political, social and economic reforms in light of complex global and regional challenges are at stake.

A tightly controlled plebiscite in April, which officially had the support of 90% of voters, brought decisive changes to the country's constitution. That included extending the presidential term of office from five to seven years and enabling Mirziyoyev to not count his time in office to date. Should Mirziyoyev be reelected on Sunday, that would mean he could stay in power until 2037, or two further consecutive terms.

Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told DW that he believes Mirziyoyev is using the snap election to try to consolidate power. "The president's administration was alarmed by the protests in Karakalpakstan during his second term. As long as he still enjoy a certain amount of popularity, they want to legally shore up this support," he said.

In July 2022, massive protests rocked Nukus, the capital of the autonomous Karakalpakstan region in northwestern Uzbekistan, after the central government attempted to do away with the region's autonomy in a constitutional amendment.

Eighteen people died and 243 were injured during the unrest. In response, Mirziyoyev promised he would not change any of the constitutional articles concerning the region's autonomy — with the exception of article 73 on the territory and boundaries of Karakalpakstan.

Who are the presidential candidates?

The parties of Uzbekistan's parliament have nominated four presidential candidates for the vote on July 9. The Liberal Democratic Party will continue backing Mirziyoyev, just as it did in the 2016 snap election when the 65-year-old succeeded the late Islam Karimov as president. Official numbers gave Mirziyoyev 88.6% of the vote in 2016, and 80.1% in the following election in October 2021.

The center-left People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan has nominated Ulugbek Inoyatov, the deputy speaker of the legislative chamber. The Social Democratic Party Adolat is backing Robakhon Makhmudova, the first deputy chair of Uzbekistan's Supreme Court. The Ecological Party has thrown its support behind Abdushukur Khamzaev, chair of the executive committee of the party's central council.

Rafael Sattarov, an independent political scientist, told DW he didn't expect to see any surprises in Sunday's election. "This is the saddest election in the country's history. People don't even known about any other candidate other than Mirziyoyev. Everybody will immediately forget their names again. Any kind of meaningful opposition is completely out of the question," he said.

Umarov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center pointed out that Mirziyoyev already had a considerable advantage over his challengers. "The people and political parties support him. All parliamentary parties have openly declared that their views completely match Mirziyoyev's politics," he said.

Mirziyoyev distanced himself from Karimov

Mirziyoyev began implementing social and economic reforms directly after taking office in 2016, careful to distance himself from the hard-line regime of his predecessor, for whom he had served as prime minister for 13 years.

Once he became president, one of Mirziyoyev's most important reforms was the liberalization of Uzbekistan's currency regulations, which removed substantial barriers to foreign investment and trade.

Following a September 2017 decree, the central bank began to set the exchange rate of the Uzbek currency based on results of foreign exchange trading. This created a market with open competition and more opportunities for trade and currency exchange, as well as open monetary transactions with foreign countries. Previously, exporters had been required to sell proceeds from foreign exchange to the state, and corporations with foreign investment were often unable to transfer their money abroad for months at a time.

Mirziyoyev has also been able to partially overcome Uzbekistan's political isolation that had developed under Karimov's leadership. In particular, he has successfully improved ties with neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

And, unlike his predecessor, Mirziyoyev has made it a point to stay in touch with his people.

"Addressing the president on personal social networks pages such as Facebook or Telegram is very popular," said Umarov.

Uzbek society longing for change

However, Sattarov said Uzbekistan was still facing several challenges, the most serious of which include corruption and abuse of power. But in an article published for Carnegie Politika in May, he said this was nothing new in Uzbekistan.

"What's different now is the atmosphere of greater openness and reformist pathos that Mirziyoyev cultivated in the early years of his rule," he said.

Sattarov went on to argue that people had a harder life under Karimov, and that they hadn't been able to complain. In contrast, Mirziyoyev had employed reformist rhetoric to boost his popularity, which had raised societal expectations.

"Now he is paying the price," Sattarov wrote, adding that society expected the state to pass reforms based on the previously announced goals. He pointed out that society's longing for change was in opposition to Mirziyoyev's own ambitions, "since overtures to democracy and openness are obstacles to the consolidation of power.

"The authorities understand that this divergence between the aspirations of society and the president will only grow, threatening stability. This is why they were in such a hurry to reset the clock on Mirziyoyev's presidential terms and reelect him as soon as possible: this time for seven years instead of five," Sattarov said.

This article was previously published in German.