Will Israeli bombs undo Yemen's peace process?

After their jets hit what the Israeli military described as "Houthi targets" in Yemen last weekend, advocacy organizations and Yemeni locals were quick to push back.

"What happened today in Hodeida is a disaster that will only harm civilians," Basem Ganani, a Yemeni journalist, wrote on social media. Israeli bombs had hit cranes in the northern port city, fuel depots and a power station, he said. 

It was completely dark and extremely hot, said Nahla al-Qudsi, a Hodeida journalist in her 30s. The power was cut off and all communications were also down. "That really made us scared," she told DW. "As if the fires and the extreme heat were not enough."

The Israeli military was retaliating against the Houthi rebel group, which controls this part of Yemen. Early on Friday morning, the Houthis had managed to fly a drone into central Tel Aviv for the first time. The resulting explosion caused one death and injured eight.

The ensuing Israeli airstrikes on Saturday killed six and injured as many as 80 others in Hodeida.

"The Israeli airstrikes on Hodeida caused significant damage, targeting essential infrastructure such as fuel storage facilities and power plants," Fatima Abo Alasrar, a Yemen expert at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, or MEI, told DW. "This has led to severe shortages [...] The people of Hodeida are living in fear and anxiety, unsure of what might happen next."

"Already, fuel lines throughout the country have hourslong wait, with people anticipating shortages," added Arwa Mokdad, an independent Yemen researcher based in the UK. "Hodeida is also the main port in Yemen. This will make it even more difficult for aid to enter the country."

The Houthi rebel group has been fighting Yemen's internationally recognized government for more than nine years. As a result of the ongoing civil war, over half of Yemen's population, an estimated 21 million people, is dependent on humanitarian assistance, the United Nations has said.

Houthis more popular than ever

Besides the negative impact on civilians in the city, another of the main criticisms of the Israeli attack is how it benefits the Houthi group itself.

Most recently the Houthis have been disrupting maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen because, the Iran-allied rebel group says, it is opposed to the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.

"They [the Houthis] now feel that their narrative of animosity toward Israel was justified," explained Abo Alasrar. "Their engagement with Israel appears to be more of a strategic move to strengthen their narrative and rally internal support, rather than a genuine effort to support the Palestinians."

Polls regularly show that almost all Yemenis staunchly support the Palestinian desire for statehood and equal rights. But not everyone agrees with the Houthis.

A lot of ordinary people in Yemen are unhappy with the way they run things, said Abo Alasrar. The Houthis have also increased recruitment and have even tried to draft children into their ranks. "That is deeply alarming and frightening for the local population," she noted.

However, bombing the Houthis tends to make them better liked.

"When faced with an external threat, people will turn towards their own countrypeople," said independent researcher Mokdad. "The bombings have skyrocketed Houthi popularity and will allow them to pursue more extreme political actions."

This may not be the last time Israel bombs Yemen, either. The Israeli military "is preparing for the possibility that it will have to launch another attack on Houthi targets," Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Monday. 

There might even be assassinations of Houthi leaders outside Yemen, said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the UK-based think tank Chatham House. 

Yemen 'stuck in a stalemate'

There could also be destablilizing, domestic political repercussions.

After nine years of civil war, the Houthi rebel group controls large parts of Yemen. Houthi opponents include the internationally recognized government, with close ties to Saudi Arabia, and separatist groups in the south of Yemen backed by the United Arab Emirates.

Lately, fighting between the Houthis and a Saudi-led military coalition has largely subsided and, despite slow progress, there are still hopes for a negotiated resolution.

Mokdad explained the current situation in Yemen: "In the Houthis' eyes, they have won the war and see no point in ceding to the internationally recognized government, which has been based in Riyadh for years now. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government does not want to cede power either. They can't win," she pointed out. "But they can't lose either. This leaves us stuck in a stalemate."

Could Israeli bombs tip the balance?

Al-Muslimi fears the moribund peace process could be damaged if the Houthis take revenge on targets closer than Israel, and resume firing on Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates.

Mokdad notes that the more popular the Houthis get, the more they will ask for when negotiating. 

Meanwhile, MEI's Abo Alasrar thinks the recent Israeli raid on Yemen could be something of a "game changer" because it will bring more international attention to efforts to cut off Houthi funding and supplies and their access to infrastructure like ports.

However, none of the experts that DW spoke with believe further Israeli strikes can have any kind of positive effect, nor will it make the Houthis — who have been fighting the Saudis, and recently the UK and the US — back down. 

The Houthis have said they would stop attacking maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Israel if the conflict in Gaza stopped. There's no reason not to believe them, analysts say. As Timothy Lenderking, the US' special envoy to Yemen, said in March on US political channel, C-Span, "the first step that is going to help us get [a settlement in Yemen] is a cease-fire in Gaza."

Peace in Yemen could still be on the table, said Mokdad. "But it will require external actors to stop escalating an already tense political situation. It is time to sit down and talk, even with those we disagree with. War created our problems," she said, "but diplomacy can end them." 

Edited by: Martin Kuebler