Will Guinea-Bissau's president rethink second term bid?

Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Cissoko Embalo last week announced that he would not run for a second term in the country's November elections — despite being eligible for another term in office.

Embalo added that none of his political rivals — Domingos Simoes Pereira, Braima Camara, or Nuno Nabiam — would succeed him as president, declaring that "Guinea-Bissau deserves better politicians." 

Political rivals and conflicts

Domingos Simoes Pereira, leader of the main opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), is Embalo's main opponent.

The PAIGC led a Marxist one-party regime in Guinea-Bissau after the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974.

Embalo himself was once a member of the PAIGC and even served as prime minister in a PAIGC-led government from 2016 to 2018. He later joined a group of dissidents who founded the Movement for Democratic Alternation, Group of 15 (Madem G15) party.

Despite PAIGC winning the most seats in the last parliamentary elections, Embalo refused to appoint Simoes Pereira as prime minister. Consequently, he dissolved the parliament and has ruled the country by decree since December 2023.

Simoes Pereira, who considers himself politically persecuted, fled to Portugal. Guinea-Bissau's prosecutor's office has demanded his return to face questioning over a corruption case. Simoes Pereira denies the allegations, accusing Embalo of controlling the judiciary to weaken his political opponents. A court had already dismissed the case in 2018.

On Sunday, Simoes Pereira returned to Guinea-Bissau, having received assurances that his parliamentary immunity would remain intact, even though the parliament has been dissolved for nine months. He refused to comment on Embalo's decision not to run again, calling it a personal decision.

Braima Camara, another prominent opponent, is the president of Madem G15, of which Embalo is also a member. However, the two have been at odds, with Camara accusing Embalo of disregarding democratic institutions. In response, Embalo attempted to isolate Camara within the party, leading to a split. Now, two factions vie for control of Madem G15: one loyal to Embalo and the other to Camara.

Nuno Nabiam, leader of the small APU-PDGB party, served as prime minister under Embalo from 2020 to 2023 and is also a political adversary. Like the others, Nabiam was previously a PAIGC member. He accused Embalo of authoritarianism, claiming that as prime minister, he had no real power, with Embalo controlling all decisions. Their falling out led to Nabiam leaving Guinea-Bissau for Portugal.

Nabiam recently claimed that the president's statements about not seeking a second term are an attempt to "divert attention from the real issue facing the country: drugs," referring to the recent drug seizure at the airport.

On September 7, the country's Judicial Police, in cooperation with various international anti-narcotics agencies, seized an aircraft carrying over 2.6 tons of cocaine, which had just landed at Bissau airport. The police stated that the plane came from Venezuela, although Venezuelan authorities denied this.

A politically motivated announcement?

Luis Petit, an independent political analyst, views Embalo's announcement not to run again as a tactical maneuver. "Sissoco Embalo is a master of political intrigue. He seizes every opportunity to weaken his opponents and manipulate the political situation to his advantage," Petit said. One example is the alleged coup attempt in February 2022, after which Embalo conducted a "witch hunt" against his political enemies, imprisoning over 50 people, many of whom are still in prison.

Petit suspects that Embalo is still planning to seek reelection behind the scenes.

"He has a tendency to say one thing and then do the opposite. It is likely that he is trying to buy time or strengthen his support base," Petit suggested.

Indeed, Embalo has already started backtracking. During a meeting with supporters of the Madem G15 faction on September 15, he said, "If the people still want me as their president, I probably won't be able to refuse," suggesting that he may backtrack on his earlier announcement.

Guinea-Bissau faces an uncertain future

Guinea-Bissau is facing major political challenges. Although parliamentary elections are scheduled for November, there is no set date for the presidential election. According to the law, the presidential vote must also take place this year, but Embalo has hinted that it may be delayed until 2025.

The political situation in the former Portuguese colony of about 2 million people remains tense, and it is unclear how events will unfold.

Embalo's contradictory statements and ongoing conflicts with his political rivals raise questions about whether Guinea-Bissau is on the path to greater stability — or if further political unrest lies ahead.

Braima Darame contributed reporting

This article was originally published in German