Will Donald Trump be able to save TikTok in the US?

Despite TikTok's looming ban in the United States, demand for the Chinese social video app remains strong, says Sven Oechler. The 25-year-old leads Pro & Me, a Berlin-based agency developing strategies for major companies on the platform. "I believe serious concerns will arise only after a final decision is made and implemented in the US," Oechler told DW

By January 19, TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance must sell its American TikTok subsidiary, or the app will be banned from US app stores. This was decided by the US Congress in April 2024 on grounds that ByteDance is allegedly under the influence of China's government and could potentially share sensitive data about US citizens with Beijing.

How Chinese is TikTok?

ByteDance, however, cites freedom of expression and has appealed against the law in the US Supreme Court, which starts hearing the case on January 10. It also denies direct Chinese government influence over its US subsidiary saying on its website that while the Chinese state owns 1% of a Chinese ByteDance subsidiary, Douyin Information Service, this is "standard" under Chinese law and has "no impact on ByteDance's global operations outside of China, including TikTok."

ByteDance did not respond to a DW request for clarification. But reports from the Financial Times in mid-2024 suggest that ties between Beijing and TikTok's US operations have grown stronger. The newspaper quotes a former employee as saying that claims that the two units are separate are wrong. "In truth, they're one and the same," they said.

Founded in Beijing in 2012 by IT students Zhang Yiming and Liang Rubo, ByteDance grew rapidly. In 2021, Yiming unexpectedly stepped down as CEO, and Shou Chew from Singapore took over.

During a US congressional hearing in March 2023, Chew evaded questions about ByteDance's origins, merely stating that ByteDance is a company founded in China that now considers itself global.

John Strand, founder of digital consultancy Strand Consult, sees little room for doubt: "TikTok is a Chinese platform using Chinese software and algorithms. Essentially any data anywhere produced on Chinese software or hardware is available to the Chinese government at any time for any reason," he told DW.

Political influence via algorithms?

TikTok has become a politically influential medium worldwide, especially among younger voters. The US is not the first country in the world to seek a ban. In India, TikTok was banned in 2020 over security concerns.

In Romania, TikTok is believed to have significantly influenced last year's presidential election. The results were annulled following reports that Russia may have used TikTok to support pro-Russian, far-right politician Calin Georgescu. The European Union has launched an investigation in response to the allegations.

In Albania, a one-year ban on TikTok was imposed at the end of 2024, not due to political interference but for youth protection reasons, after teenagers organized a knife fight on the platform.

"It would be naive to think Europe won't see more TikTok bans," said Oechler, who is closely monitoring recent developments regarding the social video app.

For some time now, TikTok has also been banned on work devices used by EU staff, and German politicians are similarly restricted from installing the app on their work phones.

John Strand believes that the stance on TikTok taken by US President-elect Donald Trump will impact future EU policy. "Whatever the decision Trump takes on TikTok, he will likely want the EU to follow."

Trump prefers political solution over ban

Last month, Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to pause implementation of the law that would ban TikTok in the US if the app is not sold by its Chinese parent company. 

"President Trump takes no position on the underlying merits of this dispute," wrote D. John Sauer, Trump's lawyer, who is also his pick for US solicitor general, in a filing for the court.

"Instead, he respectfully requests that the Court consider staying the Act's deadline for divestment … thus permitting the incoming Administration the opportunity to pursue a political resolution of the questions at issue in the case."

The law at the heart of the suit is the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, a bipartisan measure passed by Congress and subsequently signed into law by President Joe Biden in April.

While the US Justice Department, has urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump's request, the President-elect is reportedly already in talks for a political solution.

Strand believes Trump will have significant influence over the outcome of the issue. "I don't think, as some media write, that Trump has changed his attitude towards TikTok. It was during his first administration that they went to war against TikTok and he wants to get the credit and attention for the solution reached. He doesn't think it's the current one [the Biden administration] that should get the credit," he said.

How important is the US market for TikTok?

TikTok enjoys immense popularity in the US, with around 170 million users — roughly half the population — using the app, including for news consumption.

ByteDance did not respond to DW's inquiries about the US market's importance for the company, but Strand said US sales accounted for only 15% of ByteDance's total revenue.

"The bigger issue for ByteDance is likely the loss of face of being forced to sell off a crown jewel, a Chinese creation which has become a global brand," he told DW. He added that that US investors would, however, be affected by a ban, since about 60% of the company is owned by investment firms, many of which are based in the US and Japan. Among them is Jeff Yass, a major TikTok investor and prominent donor to the US Republican Party.

Oechler believes a potential ban on TikTok's US operations could "initially benefit" some of his German clients. As they often compete with US influencers on TikTok's recommendation algorithm, he said, any removal of their US rivals from the platform could create more visibility for German posts.

This article was originally written in German.