Why the populist BSW is gaining ground in eastern Germany

Sahra Wagenknecht, one of Germany's most divisive political figures, is soaring in the polls with two state elections just a week away, even though she is not on the ballot. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) — which the former Left Party parliamentary leader founded in January — is currently well ahead of the parties that make up Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government: The Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

Espousing an unusual mix of left-wing economic policy and anti-migration rhetoric, the BSW is likely to play a part in government building in the eastern German states, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the polls at over 30%. All the established parties want to make sure it stays out of government.

Wagenknecht the disruptor

The emergence of the BSW underlines the disruption in eastern German politics that has taken place over the last decade. Disruption is also a good way to describe the BSW's influence on German politics.

In July, Wagenknecht described her own party's position in these terms to Geramyn's daily taz newspaper: "I believe that we simply represent and embody what many parties no longer stand for: enlightened conservatism in the sense of preserving traditions, security — on the streets and in public places, but also jobs, healthcare and pensions. The need for security, peace and justice has found a new political home with us."

The party presented a manifesto that political analysts say has not existed in Germany in quite this way before.

"The BSW program is aimed at people who on the one hand have economically more left-wing positions but have more conservative cultural attitudes," said Daniel Seikel, researcher at the Hans Böckler Foundation, which published an analysis of BSW supporters in June. "That explains to some extent why the BSW is so popular among people who voted for the AfD and the Left Party before."

Opinion polls in eastern Germany have shown that support for Wagenknecht's former party, the Left, has been decimated by the emergence of the BSW, while the AfD does not seem to have been overly affected by it — maintaining its 30% vote share in polls in Thuringia and Saxony and 20% nationally.

That might be considered surprising, given that the AfD and BSW appear to be fishing for similar voters. A recent study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) found that BSW and AfD policies overlap in several areas. Both are in favor of limiting migration, increasing deportations of rejected asylum-seekers and creating more controls at Germany's borders, for example.

Where they differ is on issues like social welfare: The AfD wants to limit benefits, and the BSW wants to maintain or expand some.

Nevertheless, though accurate data on voter shifts can only be put together after the elections, Seikel's research suggests that though the BSW is taking some support from the AfD and the Left Party, the biggest group among BSW supporters in eastern Germany was people who voted for the center-left SPD at the last election.

Populist, but not extremist

For Ursula Münch, director of the Tutzing Academy for Political Education, an independent institute, the BSW simply represents yet another threat to the traditional parties.

"The other parties are being put through the wringer by both the BSW and the AfD," she told DW.

Münch thinks that immigration remains the key issue for German voters, and she believes that the BSW has successfully managed to present itself to voters as a non-extremist alternative to the AfD.

"The BSW can at the moment claim not to be an extremist party," she said. "It avoids racist rhetoric and has relatively decent main candidates, who have local political experience and federal political experience. I do see a difference with the AfD there."

The BSW has ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD, but it has called for a less dogmatic approach to the far-right party.

The BSW appears to be winning over an above-average number of voters of immigrant background, a demographic that has traditionally voted for center-left parties.

"It's important to note that the vast majority of immigrants do not vote BSW," according to Seikel. "But it could be the case that relatively large numbers of people with an immigrant background have economic worries, low incomes and that these factors are more important for how they vote, and not so much their immigration status."

That could mean that many people of immigrant background live and work in areas where they fear more competition from rising immigration, said Seikel.

Russia-friendly and anti-NATO

The BSW also seems to be taking away SPD voters who are skeptical about Germany's support for Ukraine — another position that the BSW shares with the AfD and the Left Party.

The Left Party, which leads the state government in Thuringia, is the successor to the Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED), the communist party that once led the East German dictatorship. East Germany was part of the USSR-friendly eastern bloc, and there is still some residual hostility to the United States and NATO to this day.

Wagenknecht has sought to capitalize on anti-American sentiment in the former East.

She suggested that opposing the stationing of US long-range weapons in Germany — a plan supported by the Christian Democrats (CDU), Germany's largest opposition party as well as the SPD, Greens and FDP — would be a condition for any coalition negotiations with the BSW.

"These weapons do not close a defense gap but are offensive weapons that would make Germany a prime target for Russian nuclear missiles. There are reasons why no other European country has stationed such missiles on its territory," Wagenknecht told the RND news network in early August.

"It's a relatively cheap demand to make because everyone knows very well that that can't be decided at the state level anyway," said Münch. "I'd say that's just electioneering, but also a clever chess move, because she touches certain fears — that Germany might be making itself a target — while knowing she doesn't necessarily have to stick to it."

Experts say making headline-grabbing statements is Wagenknecht's strength.

"I think she was always a populist, even when she was in the Left Party," said Münch. "She's someone who is very good at picking up the mood among the population. She is good at stirring the mood of anti-elitism, even though from her education and language, she is part of the establishment."

Nevertheless, the BSW appears to have established itself as a significant force, at least in eastern Germany, by filling in gaps and finding voters left behind by the other parties.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

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