What's behind India's uneasy silence on Bangladesh riots?

Student groups in Bangladesh have called for fresh street protests after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government failed to meet their demand for releasing detained leaders and apologizing for the recent violence. The government puts the death tally at 150 as of this week, while media speaks of over 200 deaths in the clashes that came to articulate displeasure with Hasina's 16-year rule.

India has been keeping a close eye on the unrest in Bangladesh, which is both a neighbouring country and one of New Delhi's closest allies. It is also a temporary home for thousands of Indian students.

But New Delhi was careful not to rock the boat.

"India considers the ongoing situation in the country to be an internal matter of Bangladesh. With the support and cooperation of the Bangladesh government, we were able to arrange for the safe return of our students," the foreign office spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in a weekly press briefing.

Around 6,700 Indian students have returned from Bangladesh amid the violent clashes in the country.

"Being a close neighbour with whom we share very warm and friendly ties, we are hopeful that the situation in the country would return to normal soon," Jaiswal added.

Bangladesh key to security, trade, diplomacy

For India, returning to normal means having Hasina firmly in power, partly for security reasons. The two countries share a 4,100-kilometer-long (2,500-mile) porous border, which can be exploited by human traffickers and terrorist groups.

Moreover, Bangladesh shares the border with the Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram which are vulnerable to violent insurgencies. 

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former India's high commissioner to Bangladesh, told DW that India has invested in the neighboring country to build public support and goodwill.

"Bangladesh's geographical position makes it a stakeholder in the development of the sub-region comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. This region includes Indian states to the north and east of Bangladesh. These states in the northeast of India were once integrated into the supply chain in undivided India," Chakravarty told DW.

Now, Bangladesh and India are working to boost transport links and "restore what existed in the pre-partition era," he added.

Billions in credit to Dhaka

India recognizes Bangladesh as a vital eastern buffer, and provides critical support through its ports and power grid access. New Delhi has so far extended almost $8 billion (€7.39 billion) in lines of credit to Dhaka which is used for development projects, building infrastructure and construction of a pipeline to supply diesel.

Major Indian companies that have invested in the country include Marico, Emami, Dabur, Asian Paints, and Tata Motors. Any escalation of the student protests could directly or indirectly affect these companies.

"The relations between India and Bangladesh are embedded in their shared history, complex socio-economic interdependency, and their geo-political positioning. Any confrontational politics and political instability in the region invite the problems of terrorism, fundamentalism, insurgency, and migration," Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University's Centre for South Asian Studies told DW.

"The violent protest and political instability will lead a circle of violence and people's migration to India," he said.

Locked between India and China

In recent years, both India and China have expanded their economic stakes in Bangladesh, which is being folded into the two countries' growing geopolitical rivalry.

Despite boasting close ties to Bangladesh, however, some analysts believe that Indian policymakers struggle to understand the anti-Indian sentiment prevalent among parts of the Bangladesh population. Some of it can be explained by New Delhi's support to the ruling Awami League.

"The 'uneasy quiet' is India's silent support for Hasina's government and its policies to deal with the ongoing unrest. Over the past decades, India has invested heavily in the Awami League as a pro-India entity in Bangladesh," Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, the founder of independent research forum Mantraya, told DW.

Regime critics in Bangladesh accuse Hasina of trying to turn Bangladesh into a one-party state and are especially enraged by her crackdown on political opponents and civil society groups.

"The Indian government has shielded her government from American pressure to yield to the opposition's demand to make the polls more democratic and transparent. The present silence is a continuation of the policy," D'Souza added.

India looks at bigger picture

According to D'Souza, India sees Bangladesh as crucial for several strategic reasons — including the development of the northeast, curtailing migration into India, and dealing with Islamist radicalization.

"Despite significant Chinese investments in that country, New Delhi still considers Hasina as someone who will prevent Bangladesh from transforming into a stooge of Beijing. As a result, supporting her becomes New Delhi's only strategic option, even while her policies have often bordered on autocracy," she said.

Seen from that angle, the recent failings of the Hasina government and strengthening of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, as well local Islamist parties, is not good news for India.

Even so, professor Sreeradha Datta from the India-based Jindal School of International Affairs believes that the extreme response of the Hasina government to the student protests cannot be justified.

She criticized the Bangladeshi officials over their attempt to place all blame for the violence on opposition parties and Islamist students. The protests turned violent as a reaction to the government's "non-response and rather derogatory remarks," Datta said.

"The mindless violence and deaths cannot be ignored or excused. The government turned the peaceful protests to the darkest phase in Bangladesh's recent history," she told DW.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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