How could results of 2024 US election influence Germany?

When Joe Biden won the 2020 US presidential election against the incumbent Donald Trump, there was a huge sigh of relief in Berlin. Unlike Trump, Biden was seen as a good old-fashioned transatlanticist, while Trump was seen as a major source of instability and disruption.

Now Trump is aiming for another term, this time hoping to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris. There is no doubt that the German government favors Harris, who it expects will ensure the continuation of close trans-Atlantic relations and multilateralism.

In early October, two-thirds of German voters surveyed by the opinion research institute Ipsos said they would like to see Harris become president, while only 12% were in favor of Donald Trump. The results of the ARD public broadcaster's Deutschlandtrend poll in early October were even more stark: 78% were in favor of Harris, and only 8% for Trump.

In what areas could the outcome of the election be particularly relevant for Germany?

Support for Ukraine

One of the most pressing issues for the German government is what will happen to support for Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. The US is by far Ukraine's most important arms supplier and financial backer, followed by Germany.

Harris has left no doubt about her continued support for Ukraine. As she has put it, in the face of Russian aggression, the US would stand firmly by Ukraine and our NATO allies for as long as necessary — an expression German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also used repeatedly.

Trump, on the other hand, wants to bring about a quick end to the war, which would presumably mean that Ukraine would be forced to give up large parts of the territories occupied by Russia.

But what the US' Ukraine policy would really look like under Trump, "we don't know," security expert Nico Lange told DW. "We can't say that if Donald Trump wins, he'll sell out Ukraine. The thing about Donald Trump is that he's not really predictable," he said.

Lange has also been critical of the Biden administration, which he said has been too slow and too hesitant when it comes to helping Ukraine.

"I hope Harris will take a positive step away from this and that she won't get into the kind of mental trap that we've seen recently in the Biden administration with regard to long-range precision weapons and inviting Ukraine to join NATO," he said. "Because these things will be needed to really solve the problem, and it would be a shame if Harris doesn't manage to change course."

NATO and international security

The vice president has also spoken out as a strong supporter of multilateral cooperation and NATO. "In these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat," she said. She does not want to compromise the US' global alliances.

Trump, on the other hand, has repeatedly questioned the very purpose of NATO itself. Most notably, he has called on NATO allies to spend more money on their own defense — even calling the NATO collective defense clause into question. At times during his presidency from 2017 to 2021, Trump even threatened to withdraw US soldiers from Germany.

But on this point, Lange also warned against adopting a black-and-white approach.

"If you look not just at Ukraine, but at European security as a whole, then there is of course reason to believe that things would be a little easier and more predictable for Europeans if Harris wins the presidency," he said. "But it has to be said that the need for Europeans to do more for their own security is a reality in either case, and there is no getting around that."

Economy and trade

The US is one of Germany's most important trading partners. Every economic policy decision in Washington has a direct impact on the German economy.

Trump has announced that if he wins the election, he will impose a 60% tariff on US imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from the rest of the world. This would make German products significantly more expensive in the US. The automotive and pharmaceutical industries would be hit particularly hard.

As a result, many German manufacturing companies are worried about a Trump victory. In a survey conducted by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in mid-October, 44% of the German companies surveyed feared that a Trump presidency would have adverse effects. Only 5% anticipate positive consequences, while 51% do not expect any difference. An earlier Ifo study predicted that the tariffs announced by Trump alone would reduce German exports to the US by almost 15%.

Andreas Baur from the Ifo Institute believes tariff barriers could also have indirect consequences for Germany. "You can, of course, assume that there will be a response from trading partners, from China," Baur told DW, "and that is perhaps the biggest concern, that this could escalate into a trade war at the global level."

But no matter who wins on November 5, the German business community does not expect the US to liberalize its trade policies. Both candidates "are focusing on strengthening domestic industry and want to bring manufacturing jobs back into the country," Siegfried Russwurm, the president of the Federation of German Industries, said recently.

Baur agreed. "Of course, there have been continuities from Trump to Biden, and this applies above all to trade policy toward China. Biden has maintained all of the high tariffs that Trump imposed on Chinese imports, and recently increased tariffs on Chinese e-cars to over 100%, for example," he said.

"The big difference between Trump and Harris is their approach to US allies. Trump's rhetoric is clear: it's about the US against the rest. With a future Harris administration, at least my impression is that they realize the United States needs allies."

Climate protection and energy

Harris sees climate change as an "existential threat" to humanity. As vice president, she supported the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022, the Biden administration's multibillion-euro package on climate action and social welfare.

If Trump wins the election, on the other hand, the US will likely turn away from climate action and withdraw from international climate agreements. This would make it even more difficult for the German government, which is particularly committed to climate protection, to push through internationally binding rules to limit CO2 emissions.

During the election campaign, Trump has specifically attacked Germany's energy policy, claiming that after a failed phaseout of fossil fuels, Germany had begun building one coal-fired power plant every week — which has absolutely no basis in truth.

Trump made the comments during his televised debate against Harris in September, prompting the German Foreign Ministry to responded to this on the platform X: "Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables." Coal and nuclear power plants are being shut down, not built. It added, "Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest."

In mid-October, outgoing President Biden paid a short visit to Germany and was showered with honors and praise. What the next visit by a US president will look like depends very much on who moves into the White House.

This article was originally written in German.

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