What does the suspension of US aid mean for Afghanistan?

Moves by US President Donald Trump suspending US foreign development assistance while curtailing the operations of USAID threaten to have a major impact on Afghanistan, which is dependent on outside help for essential services.

Despite withdrawing from Afghanistan in August 2021, the US has remained the country's largest donor.

According to a report by the Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), Washington has "appropriated or otherwise made available more than $21 billion in assistance to Afghanistan and to Afghan refugees" since the Taliban seized full control of the country.

The US maintains that aid funds are directed toward the Afghan people, with safeguards in place to prevent the Taliban from accessing them.

Taliban facing 'chaos'

However, the Taliban have indirectly benefited from the flow of US dollars, which has helped stabilize the Afghan currency and mitigate the risk of rapid inflation. The suspension of US aid threatens to upend this fragile balance.

"Stopping US foreign aid, including USAID funding, has caused chaos among the Taliban," Ghaus Janbaz, a former Afghan diplomat, told DW.

Many experts argue that foreign aid to Afghanistan, including the hundreds of millions provided annually by the US, has inadvertently helped the Taliban maintain control over the country.

With the flow of funds drying up, they believe the Taliban could either succumb to international demands or face stronger opposition from within Afghanistan.

"In the past three years, the Taliban have failed to establish a self-sustaining economy, making them heavily dependent on such aid," Janbaz added.

'Afghan people will pay the price'

Since regaining control of Afghanistan, the Taliban have systematically denied women basic rights, including education and work outside the home.

Under Taliban rule, Afghan women are prohibited from showing their faces in public. The issue of women's rights has remained a major barrier to any country establishing official relations with the Taliban.

As a result, no country in the world has formally recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

The Taliban have also failed to establish an inclusive government or introduce a process for Afghan citizens to participate in public life.

While calls to increase pressure on the Taliban have grown, some caution that cutting vital aid will only lead to greater suffering for the Afghan people.

"According to UN reports, 26 million people in Afghanistan depend on foreign aid for survival," said Wazhma Frogh, an Afghan women's rights activist based outside the country who works with aid organizations still operating in Afghanistan.

"If humanitarian organizations lose access to funds, they will be unable to provide even the most basic assistance," she told DW.

"The Taliban do not have any agenda for support or development of the Afghan people. The only assistance comes from the UN, international agencies, and Afghan aid organizations," she added, warning that Trump's decision to cut aid will significantly worsen conditions for ordinary Afghans.

No Trump plan for Afghanistan?

The reduction in aid to Afghanistan is a result of President Trump's sweeping executive orders, which were not specifically targeted at Afghanistan, but on development aid as a whole.

Afghanistan appears to be on the sidelines right now of Trump's foreign policy agenda, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine taking focus.

During a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4, Trump was asked about his plans for Afghanistan by an Afghan journalist.

He responded that he could not understand "her beautiful accent," leaving it unclear whether he genuinely failed to comprehend the question or was avoiding it altogether.

"I don't think the Trump administration has a plan for Afghanistan yet," said Frogh.

However, Trump has been vocal about his demands from the Taliban — namely the return of military equipment left behind by the US and control over Bagram Airbase, which he claims is now under Chinese influence, a claim the Taliban deny.

According to Janbaz, these remarks do not reflect a concrete US strategy toward Afghanistan but rather serve as part of Trump's campaign rhetoric.

"Time will reveal how Trump handles Afghanistan, but what is clear is that his approach will not mirror that of the previous administration," Janbaz concluded.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn