What comes next for Iran after strike on Israel?

Israel has vowed to retaliate after Iranian forces launched a missile attack on Israeli territory Tuesday evening in a major escalation that risks a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attack was in response to the July killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, along with the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the IRCG's deputy commander of operations, Abbas Nilforoushan, in an Israeli strike on Beirut last week.

The IRGC has warned that if Israel retaliates, Iranwill respond with more attacks.

This aggressive move from Tehran comes after weeks of inaction following repeated Israeli strikes that severely degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran's most important regional proxy.

Israel has said its attacks on Hezbollah are to eliminate the threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.  After the October 7 terror attacks, an estimated 60,000 people living up to 5 kilometers (about 3 miles) from the border were ordered to evacuate. 

The Israeli military confirmed that approximately 180 missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel during the attack Tuesday night. According to a high-ranking Israeli security official, most of the missiles were intercepted and neutralized by the Israeli Air Force in cooperation with US forces.

Strength or symbolism?

The scale of the assault raises questions about whether the attack was merely symbolic, or if it serves as a credible demonstration of Iran's strike capability.

According to Mojtaba Dehghani, a senior political analyst and journalist at Independent Persian, Iran's main goal in this escalation is to restore the balance of power in its confrontation with Israel.

The attacks were not just for show or to appease supporters, they are part of a broader strategy that Iran has pursued for years, Dehghani told DW.

Iran has built a security umbrella based on two pillars: a comprehensive missile and nuclear program, inching close to the development of a nuclear bomb, and its network of allied militias across the Middle East, dubbed the "Axis of Resistance" by Iran supporters.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is the largest Iranian proxy in this grouping, which also includes Hamas in Gaza and Houthi fighters in Yemen.

Tehran's primary concern is that failing to respond to recent Israeli strikes against its so-called "Axis of Resistance" could lead to the collapse of one of its core security strategies.

The assassinations of Haniyeh in Tehran, along with the deaths of senior Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, have put Iran in a precarious position. Until October 7, there was an unspoken respect for "red lines" that prevented direct confrontation between Iran and Israel.

But these lines have since blurred.

Israel now views the continuous, albeit limited, attacks by Hezbollah on northern Israel and the actions of the Houthis, including missile strikes on Israel and attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea, as direct acts of war instigated by Tehran.

The regime in Iran has made no effort to distance itself from this perception, allowing the tensions to escalate.

Crucially, for years, Iran has relied on the threat posed by its allied militias and their capability to target US bases and Israeli territory as a deterrent to protect its nuclear and missile programs. The weakening or destruction of these proxy forces across the Middle East would represent a major security disaster for the Islamic Republic.

What capabilities does Iran have?

Tuesday's missile attack also prompts speculation about what other tools Iran possesses and whether it intends to use them in its ongoing standoff with Israel.

Dehghani says that although Iran has invested heavily in developing missile capabilities, long-standing sanctions and restrictions on arms imports have had a degrading effect.

Iran's air and naval forces have not undergone significant modernization, leading to a weakened "conventional" military presence.

Consequently, Iran's available security tools are somewhat "unconventional," comprising both missile arsenals and allied militia groups that can disrupt regional dynamics and achieve Tehran's strategic goals.

In scenarios of "controlled confrontation," these tools allow Iran to inflict painful, short-term damage on its adversaries, Dehghani added.

However, this strategy is limited to "painful yet inconclusive" strikes on an adversary, that would not be nearly as effective in the case of a full-scale war, he said.

Iran braces for response

During the attacks on Tuesday, video footage broadcast from Tehran showed government supporters cheering in the streets, waving Iranian, Lebanese and Hezbollah flags, chanting "death to Israel."

However, contrary to the extensive government propaganda in Iran, not everyone in the country supports the regime's continued confrontation with Israel, which the Islamic Republic refers to as the "Zionist regime" while denying Israel's right to exist.

A glance at social media after the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah revealed that many Iranians took risks to openly express support for Israel and praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A growing segment of the Iranian population believes that the regime has squandered the nation's financial resources by funding proxy terrorist groups and wars across the Middle East, and they wish for an end to this policy.

After Tuesday's attack, DW spoke with Iranians under condition of anonymity who said that Iranian social media accounts are being monitored by authorities for comments criticizing the regime. Unverified video footage also showed long lines at gas stations.

This recent Iranian attack has increased the likelihood that Israel might respond more forcefully than it did during a similar confrontation in April.

At that time, Iran launched 300 missiles and drones in response to an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus.

However, a coordinated international diplomatic effort restrained Israel from launching a large-scale retaliation.

Ultimately, Israel conducted a limited but symbolic strike near an Iranian nuclear facility, causing minimal damage but signaling its capability to strike. However, it is unclear whether Israel will show restraint in its response this time.

Potential targets for Israel could range from Iran's nuclear facilities and IRGC bases to the missile launch platforms and ammunition depots from which the latest missile attacks were orchestrated.

An unnamed Israeli source told the Channel 12 broadcaster in Israel that any response to Iran's actions would be considerably more severe and that the Islamic Republic has not yet faced even "one percent" of what Israel could unleash in the near future.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn