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French election: Far-right RN projected to win first round

Published June 30, 2024last updated July 1, 2024

Early projections indicate Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) has won most votes in the first round of the parliamentary election in France, beating the leftist NFP alliance and Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hgPd
Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, reacts on stage after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024
Le Pen told supporters that Macron's centrist bloc, which finished third, had been 'almost wiped out'Image: Yves Herman/REUTERS
Skip next section What you need to know

What you need to know

  • Far-right National Rally set to win some 34% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections, exit polls show
  • Final outcome to be decided in runoff round on July 7
  • Emmanuel Macron calls for 'democratic and republican alliance' against RN
  • The left-wing NFP alliance is also set to outperform the president's bloc
  • Macron has said he plans to see out his term, until 2027, whatever the outcome
Skip next section Tentative projections put RN close to absolute majority in parliament
July 1, 2024

Tentative projections put RN close to absolute majority in parliament

As France starts preparing for the decisive second round of the parliamentary vote next weekend, centrist and left-wing parties have already started speculating on a joint election strategy, including presenting a united front to counter RN.

Details of that strategy, however, remain unclear.

Using the numbers available from today's vote, French broadcasters project that RN could take between 240 and 270 parliamentary seats next Sunday.

This is still short of 289 seats needed for absolute majority in parliament.  However, RN could look for allies among smaller parties that are projected to take 21 seats, or the conservative Republican party, which is expected to take between 30 and 50 seats.

All projections are intentionally left with a large margin of error since the outcome of the vote is highly uncertain at this stage. 

A meaningful representation of the future National Assembly will only be possible after the second round, following runoff elections in the constituencies that have not yet been decided.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhon
Skip next section Thousands rally in Paris to protest against the French far right
June 30, 2024

Thousands rally in Paris to protest against the French far right

Thousands of people are gathering at the Republique plaza in Paris to protest against the far-right National Rally's (RN) lead in the first round of French parliamentary election.

One of the protesters told the AP news agency that France was "going towards the extreme."

"People don't understand that this will impact us for years and years," 19-year-old political science student Cynthia Fefoheio said. "This is a France of hate that is growing, not a France of solidarity and union."

Another protester, 23-year-old public worker Daniel Gwendal, said he was hoping for a wide-reaching front against RN. "I hope for a union between the right and the left," he said.

Soon after the vote results were announced, both Emmanuel Macron and the head of the leftist NFP bloc, Jean-Luc Melenchon, signaled they were open to a non-aggression pact in order to deny seats to Marine Le Pen's RN. 

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhnh
Skip next section PM Attal urges against voting for RN, says 'not a single vote must go' to them
June 30, 2024

PM Attal urges against voting for RN, says 'not a single vote must go' to them

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that the far right was "at the gates of power" following the first round of the parliamentary election.

"Our objective is clear: to prevent the RN from getting elected in the second round. Not a single vote must go to the National Rally."

"France does not deserve that," he added.

The 35-year-old prime minister was appointed by centrist Emmanuel Macron in January. He, like leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, also called for strategic withdrawals of candidates in the second round of voting on July 7 to prevent RN from securing an absolute majority. He said around 60 pro-government candidates would be dropping out of the second and decisive round of voting. 

Earlier this evening, Macron also called for a "democratic and republican alliance" against RN.

A clear wish for change: Jordan Bardella, National Rally

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhmw
Skip next section Embattled conservative leader Eric Ciotti wants alliance with RN
June 30, 2024

Embattled conservative leader Eric Ciotti wants alliance with RN

Eric Ciotti, the chief of the Republicans party, has described the first round of the French parliamentary election as a "great success."

Ciotti has held on to his post as head of the conservative Les Republicains (LR), despite facing a mutiny from inside the party due to his friendly stance towards RN. Senior members of the party voted to boot Ciotti earlier this month, but the veteran politician has disputed the legality of the vote.

On Sunday, LR won around 10% of the vote, far behind the top three parties.

But Ciotti praised the "historic union" with RN's Jordan Bardella.

"Victory is in sight tonight,"  Ciotti said, adding that the French people expressed their "desire for change and transformation."

Ciotti holds a folder while walking between journalists
Ciotti has previously called for dropping the taboo against working with far-right partiesImage: Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt/AFP/Getty Images
https://p.dw.com/p/4hhmD
Skip next section Infographic — How French voters are split between top parties
June 30, 2024

Infographic — How French voters are split between top parties

DW presents a visualization and a recap of the popular vote standings after the first round of voting in France. The projections and exit polls of the major broadcasters vary slightly, but only by tiny margins. All point to the same trends.

Broadcaster TF1 anticipates 34.2% support for National Rally (RN), 29.1% for the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), and 21.5% for Macron's "Together" alliance (Ensemble or ENS). 

Center-right party Les Republicains, once a powerhouse in French politics with past presidents like Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, was a distant fourth with 10%. 

 

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhhu
Skip next section Melenchon: Vote dealt 'heavy and indisputable' defeat to Macron
June 30, 2024

Melenchon: Vote dealt 'heavy and indisputable' defeat to Macron

Centrist President Emmanuel Macron tried to set up a "suffocating choice" between himself and the RN, leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon said on Sunday evening.

Melenchon is the head of La France Insoumise which is a part of the New Popular Front (NFP), a broad alliance of left-wing parties. The bloc is projected to win 28.5% of the vote and place second after the far-right RN, but ahead of Macron's Ensemble.

Commenting on the voting outcome, Melenchon said it was clear that the current head of government Gabriel Attal "will no longer be prime minister."

He said the vote "inflicted a heavy and indisputable defeat on the president."

At the same time, the 72-year-old leftist signaled he was ready to work with Macron to keep RN from winning runoff races.

Jean-Luc Melenchon points during a speech following the French vote
Jean-Luc Melenchon (c) is considered far-left, which could make any pact with centrist Macron difficultImage: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
https://p.dw.com/p/4hhfv
Skip next section Bardella ready to be PM if National Rally wins absolute majority
June 30, 2024

Bardella ready to be PM if National Rally wins absolute majority

The leader of France's far-right National Rally party, Jordan Bardella, said he was ready to be the "prime minister of all French people" if his party wins an absolute majority in the second round of elections.

"I will be a 'cohabitation' Prime Minister, respectful of the constitution and of the office of President of the Republic, but uncompromising about the policies we will implement," Bardella said.

"The French people have handed down a clear verdict," Bardella said after his party appeared to have won the first round of the early parliamentary elections.

Bardella walks to the stage to give a speech
The 28-year-old Bardella took the reins of RN in 2022 from Marine Le PenImage: Julien de Rosa/AFP/Getty Images
https://p.dw.com/p/4hhWs
Skip next section Le Pen wants 'absolute majority' in parliament for National Rally
June 30, 2024

Le Pen wants 'absolute majority' in parliament for National Rally

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is urging voters to give her National Rally an "absolute majority" in parliament after estimates showed her party won 34% of the vote.

“Nothing has been won yet and the second round will be decisive, to avoid the country falling into the hands of the [NPF] alliance, from an extreme left with a tendency to violence," Le Pen said, using the alliance's former name in her direct quote. 

The second round will be decisive in giving Jordan [Bardella, her candidate for prime minister] an absolute majority in the National Assembly, to next week begin reestablishing unity and national consensus in France.

Le Pen said her party "needs" an absolute majority "for Jordan Bardella to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days."

She also said President Emmanuel Macron's camp was "almost wiped out" in the first round of French legislative elections.

If the National Rally does not command an absolute majority, the likelihood does seem high that Macron would seek a unity government involving other forces in parliament.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhPj
Skip next section Firebrand leftist Melenchon ready to pull out his candidates to defeat RN
June 30, 2024

Firebrand leftist Melenchon ready to pull out his candidates to defeat RN

With France's next parliament set to be decided in the runoff vote next Sunday, leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon said his New Popular Front (NFP) is ready to tactically drop election races if it helps beat far-right RN.

"In the event of a three-way fight, if the National Rally is in the lead and we are third, we will withdraw our candidacies," he said after the first round of voting concluded on Sunday evening.

Under French election rules, any candidate with at least 12.5% of the total number of registered voters is qualified to run in the second round, where the candidate with the highest number of votes wins. However, those candidates are free to give up the race.

While signaling his willingness to help other parties against RN, Melenchon also noted that his NFP is also a force to be reckoned with as it is facing many races "with no real competition."

"Our instructions are simple, direct and clear: not one vote, not one more seat for the RN," he said.

Melenchon may be hoping that Macron displays a similar willingness to cooperate, given Macron's calls for a broad alliance against RN.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhRv
Skip next section Macron calls for 'broad' democratic alliance against the far-right
June 30, 2024

Macron calls for 'broad' democratic alliance against the far-right

French President Emmanuel Macron is urging voters to block the far-right in the crucial second round of parliamentary elections after the National Rally party won the first round, according to estimates.

"Faced with National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round," he said in a statement.

Macron also said that the high turnout in the first round illustrated "the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation."

The second round is scheduled for next Sunday, July 7.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhOX
Skip next section Far-right RN the largest party in 1st round vote — early projection
June 30, 2024

Far-right RN the largest party in 1st round vote — early projection

The far-right National Rally (RN) party made gains in the first round of France's legislative elections, according to early projections released after polls closed.

According to Ipsos Talan projections, RN is set to win the largest share of the national vote, at 34%. 

The left-wing and center-left NPF bloc was second, with 28.1%. 

And President Emmanuel Macron's "Together" alliance was in third, on 20.3%.

However, only a small number of seats are likely to be decided outright in tonight's first round. Voting habits may change in the second round when voters have more limited choices. Historically, this system has made it difficult for RN to cash in on its superiority in the first round.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhBs
Skip next section Polls close in most of the country, first projections momentarily
June 30, 2024

Polls close in most of the country, first projections momentarily

It's 8 p.m. in France and most voting stations have either closed or are in the process of closing. 

The first television projections and exit polls should follow very shortly. Stay tuned.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhEB
Skip next section DW correspondent: Unclear who will benefit from bumper turnout
June 30, 2024

DW correspondent: Unclear who will benefit from bumper turnout

As French voters flock to the polls in greater numbers, DW correspondent Lisa Louis says it is difficult to say who will benefit from the high turnout.

"You think that when more and more people turn out, the turnout may block the far right from coming to power. That was the case in the past with the so-called 'vote barrage' [meant] to create a dam against the far right coming to power," Louis said.

But she said a recent poll suggested that this increased turnout was no longer primarily against the far right — with firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon also apparently a turnoff for many less committed French voters.

"People now try to block the far left from coming to power, then they want to block Macron from staying in power, and in the third place comes the National Rally," Louis explained.

"It remains to be seen what the final result will be," she added.

First polling stations in France have closed: DW’s Lisa Louis

https://p.dw.com/p/4hhEv
Skip next section Turnout estimated to be highest since 1986
June 30, 2024

Turnout estimated to be highest since 1986

Voter turnout in the first round of the French legislative elections reached 59.39% at 5 p.m. local time, compared to 39.4% at the same time in 2022.

"This is the highest level since the 1986 legislative elections and already higher than the 2012, 2017, and 2022 elections," Mathieu Gallard, research director at the Ipsos polling institute, said on X, formerly Twitter.

Polling stations in mainland France are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. local time.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hh3X
Skip next section What to expect this evening as France decides
June 30, 2024

What to expect this evening as France decides

Polling stations on the mainland are due to close by 8 p.m. local time (1800 UTC) on Sunday.

Immediately after polling ends, French media outlets will publish their projections from the first round of the legislative election, which normally have a high degree of accuracy.

Early official results are expected later on Sunday night.

The office of French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that he would make a statement about the outcome of the first round on Sunday evening.

Under election rules in France, any lawmaker who receives more than half of the votes cast in their district wins a seat in the National Assembly outright in the first round. But this must also correspond to at least a quarter of the registered voters in the constituency.

Voting underway in French parliamentary elections

In practice, very few candidates will manage this feat in round one, so it may be difficult to draw any conclusions from Sunday's results.

After the first round, several candidates in each district are then expected to drop out of the race to help other more popular contenders in the runoff and block victories by far-right candidates.

The runoff next Sunday, July 7, will be where most seats will be allocated. After those results are in, President Emmanuel Macron should then, in theory, choose the country's next prime minister from the strongest party in the Assembly.

If, as is expected, either the leftist coalition or the far-right RN takes the most seats, Macron would be forced into a period of cohabitation, which would see his power limited to foreign policy, the military and EU affairs.

https://p.dw.com/p/4hgzE
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