Uncertainty Regarding Constituent Assembly Elections in Nepal

Fears in Nepal are growing that the long-awaited elections, which are scheduled to take place on November 22nd, will be postponed once again. This would be the second time for the polls to be put off since the government and the Maoist rebels signed a peace deal in November last year.

The political situation seemed to look up when the Maoists joined the interim government at the beginning of this year. However, hopes for a peaceful solution between the seven-party alliance and the rebels were dashed when the Maoists withdrew from the government last month. This move was seen as the most serious setback to the peace process since the peace deal ended the 10-year insurgency last month.

Another postponement?

Sam Taylor, bureau chief of the AFP news agency in Kathmandu, spoke to a senior government minister, who told him that there was a high probability that the vote would not go ahead. And Taylor thinks that a further postponement of the elections would have serious repercussions for the country:

"This would be a disaster as this is the second time the elections would get delayed. They were supposed to be held in June this year, now they are supposed to be in November but it looks increasingly unlikely that they are even going to be held in November. What this creates is a space for lots of possibilities for negative incidents like we had this communal violence down in Kapilvastu. There could be plenty more of these incidents between now and the time of the elections, which could be very destabilizing for the country."

The Maoists and their demands

On Thursday, Nepal's governing alliance was trying to persuade former Maoist rebels to rejoin the interim coalition, and the Maoists gave them until midnight on Thursday to agree to their demands.

These include the abolition of the monarchy before the election and the change of the electoral system. Last November the seven-party alliance and the Maoists agreed on an election system that consisted of half electorate-based and half proportional representation. However, the Maoists are expected to do badly in the elections and would clearly benefit if a proportional representation system were in place.

Dashed hopes

Taylor thinks that for the people of Nepal, especially outside the capital Kathmandu, the current situation is very difficult:

"There is an atmosphere of despondency here at the moment. There was a lot of hope when the Maoists signed the peace deal. There was an awful lot of hope that the country could for the first time have an election that could address some of the old issues: issues of the mistreatment of low castes, issues of under-representation of ethnic minorities. But if the elections don’t happen, those issues won’t be addressed and these problems that have been there for hundreds of years will still be there. The international community are desperate for the elections to happen in November as there is too much potential for danger if these elections get postponed again."

Better or worse?

Nepal has seen increasing violence all over the country in the past few months. The most recent incident happened in Kapilvastu in southern Nepal in September when more than 30 people lost their lives in riots following the assassination of a prominent anti-Maoist leader.

According to Taylor, the political situation in Nepal has not necessarily become better since the peace process. He says that whereas it used to be a Maoist problem, there are now so many ethnic groups involved that the situation is difficult to understand:

"It is difficult to say whether the situation is better or not. There was a lot of optimism with this peace process, that the war was finally over and people could return to their homes in the countryside. But unfortunately what we have seen is things haven’t actually changed that much. The Maoists have put their soldiers in the camps, but they bring them out to protest so they break the peace process. Labour export has increased since the ceasefire and normally you would expect that number to fall, but clearly the average working man is not that optimistic as they are leaving in greater numbers than ever before."

Whether or not the elections are being held as scheduled remains to be seen, however, it becomes increasingly unlikely as the government seems to be prepared to cave in to the Maoist demands of installing a new electoral system. And that, according to the main parties, would take at least 110 days -- exactly 61 days more than the scheduled election date permits.