Ukraine: What's behind recent talk of a negotiated peace?

In recent weeks, there has been increasing debate about whether Russia's war in Ukraine could be ended at the negotiating table.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Russian President Vladimir Putin on what the former described as a "peace mission." Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently claimed in his regular column for the British Daily Mail tabloid that he had presented former US president and current presidential contender Donald Trump with a "peace plan" that would require Putin to withdraw to "at least" the pre-invasion boundaries of 2022; Russia illegally annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and was already occupying parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by 2022.

For his part, Trump has claimed on various past occasions, including during recent campaign events, that he would end the war immediately if reelected.

But what came as a surprise to many observers was a comment by Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might have to consider territorial compromises with Russia.

"The next few months will be very difficult for Volodymyr Zelenskyy," he said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. "Should he continue the war with new deaths and destruction, or consider a territorial compromise with Putin? And in this case, what pressure will come from America if Trump wins? And how do we explain to the country that we need to give up pieces of our territory that cost the lives of thousands of our fighting heroes? Whatever move he makes, our president risks political suicide."

Klitschko added that Zelenskyy would "probably have to resort to a referendum" in this case. "I don't think he can reach such painful and important agreements on his own without popular legitimacy," he said.

Klitschko 'settling accounts' with Zelenskyy

Do such statements about peace plans and potential territorial compromises on the part of Ukraine mean the country is open to a diplomatic solution to end the war? Would that be acceptable to Ukrainians and to Ukraine's Western partners?

Volodymyr Fesenko, the director of the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv, likened Klitschko's comments to a "false start." He said there were no real peace talks happening at the moment, only initiatives and plans that are not necessarily the foundation for negotiations. He said Klitschko was trying to settle accounts with Zelenskyy, with whom he has been at odds for years.

"Klitschko is fueling existing fears in society of a secret deal. But there are no secret agreements, there are no peace talks at all," insisted Fesenko. He said it would be impossible to conclude a secret deal, as it would have to be implemented with Ukrainian society anyway.

"Approval by means of a referendum would be needed precisely in this case, as Klitschko indicated, so that Zelenskyy does not relinquish anything on his own," he said.

Roger Hilton, an analyst with the international think tank GLOBSEC, based in the Slovak capital, Bratislava, said some Ukrainian politicians were beginning to talk about territorial concessions after more than two very difficult years of war.

"The fact that this concept is being expressed publicly by someone like Mayor Klitschko is recognition of the very tough policy choices for the country," he said. "And these comments by the mayor might be a domestic political exercise to test if even such a position would be somewhat received by the population."

Hilton suggested Klitschko, who has never made a secret of his ambitions to become president, is using the situation to accumulate "political dividends" for himself. He said his comments could be "viewed as pseudo-campaigning with an eye to the elections in the future," given that the Ukrainian presidential election did not take place this year as regularly scheduled because of the war.

Territorial concessions would be painful for Ukraine, Europe

Hilton said territorial concessions would not only be painful for Ukraine, but also for the rest of Europe.

"In general, I think most of Ukraine's Western allies would be loath to having the country give up some of its territory due to the unresolved issues it would create in Europe, as well as the global precedent it would set for other authoritarian leaders bent on illegally taking territory," he said.

According to polls, there has been a gradual increase since spring 2023 in the proportion of Ukrainians who would be willing to make territorial concessions in order to achieve peace as quickly as possible.

In May, 32% of respondents said they would be willing to make concessions, compared to around 10% in May 2023. At the same time, according to a study published on July 23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, a majority of respondents (55%) were against any territorial concessions to Russia. From May 2022 to May 2023, the absolute majority of 82% to 87% was against such concessions, with only around 8% to 10% of respondents prepared to make them.

This article was originally written in Ukrainian and translated into German. This English version has been translated from the German.