How Turkey is competing with China for influence in Africa

Turkey's strategic push into Africa has seen new projects in Somalia recently where Ankara wants to explore offshore oil fields and is planning to improve military cooperation with a new test site for missiles. 

Since launching its African Initiative Policy in 1998, Turkey has aimed to strengthen commercial, diplomatic, and security ties with the continent. 

The Turkish government is investing "great energy and ambition" to reach its economic goals under the policy, says Volkan Ipek from the private Yeditepe University in Istanbul. Its strategy was aimed at "increasing trade and fostering free-trade agreements," he told DW. "In this sense, perhaps the most stable and efficient region, or even continent, in terms of foreign policy is Africa." 

In the past two decades, Turkey increased the number of its embassies in Africa from 12 in 2002 to 44 in 2022. Turkey's flag carrier, Turkish Airlines, flies to 62 African destinations, while 38 African countries have established embassies in Ankara.

Turkey's growing influence on the continent is reflected by rising trade volumes, which surged from $5.4 billion (€4.85 billion) in 2003 to over $41 billion in 2022 before falling back to $37 billion last year.

What investors from Turkey find most attractive is Africa's young population and rising demand for goods, which are promising rich economic benefits. But Turkey's initiatives have to compete against projects launched by China, Russia, and Arab countries in the Gulf region seeking to increase their influence in Africa.

Volkan Ipek believes Africa is developing into a "great market" as its growing economies "aroused such a big interest that Turkey inevitably felt obliged to show itself in this competition."

In 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was still prime minister at the time, was the first non-African political leader to visit Somalia in two decades. His visit has pushed Ankara's engagement in Somalia and Africa as a whole.

Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, has become home to Turkey's largest military base abroad, while several bilateral agreements have been signed in recent months, including closer defense and security cooperation as well as a deal to explore oil fields off the coast of Somalia.

Exploration deals open the door to energy markets

In July, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar signed a so-called Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production agreement with Somalia granting Ankara exclusive rights to explore and produce oil and gas in three blocks off the Somali coast.

Turkey will be sending an exploration vessel to the region at the end of September or early October, Alparslan announced, as geo-seismic studies had shown the country sits on at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves.

Sohbet Karbuz, director of hydrocarbons and energy security at the Paris-based Mediterranean Observatory for Energy and Climate (OMEC) think tank sees the exploration partnership as a "strategic step" in securing Turkish energy supplies.

"Turkey is on its way to becoming an important player in deep-sea oil and gas exploration. With its four drilling and two seismic research vessels it already has the technical experience," Karbuz told DW in written comments.

Turkish energy supplies depend about 74% on imports from abroad which is why Ankara is eager to diversify its energy sector. Currently, the country still imports huge amounts of pipeline gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, Algeria and Iran, and buys liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Egypt, Russia, France and Nigeria.

"This [exploration agreement with Somalia] shows Turkey's ambition to find additional energy resources, with planned deals in the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean and the Black Sea further reflecting this ambition," said Ipek.

Missed targets and weak partners

However ambitious Turkey's Africa strategy may seem, the country has persistently failed to reach its trade-volume targets with Africa of €50 billion annually. This figure was envisioned for 2012 — four years after the African Union declared Turkey a "strategic partner." In 2021, Erdogan even announced that trade of $75 billion was now the target for trade with Africa without giving a timeframe for reaching the target.

Ufuk Tepebas, who was a researcher at the University of Basel's Center for African Studies, says setting targets is one thing, but it is more necessary to "determine the potential of countries and diversify trade partners." 

Turkey has signed free-trade agreements with only four African countries, so far — Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Mauritius. Somalia and Sudan are still primarily receiving Turkish development aid, while bilateral cooperation is mainly focused on Turkey's close religious and historical ties with the two countries.

Tepebas, therefore, calls on Ankara to "analyze correctly" when choosing its African trade partners. "The potential of Somalia and Sudan in terms of trade is very weak. If you had preferred to support Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Kenya, you would probably get bigger commercial returns," Tepebas told DW.

Security cooperation to back up investment projects

Turkey is also establishing itself as a key security partner for several African nations. The Turkish parliament has recently approved legislation deploying its military in Somalia for two years in effort to improve domestic security against terrorism.

"The defense cooperation is likely to develop further as the number of incidents requiring weapons increase. Since 2011, Jihadist terrorists have been active and playing a major role in the Sahel region," said Ipek.

According to data published by the SIPRI peace research institute in Sweden, Turkey has become the fourth-largest arms supplier to sub-Saharan Africa, due to its sales of combat helicopters to Nigeria, and training aircraft as well as unmanned TB2 Bayraktar drones to several African states.

Apart from selling arms to Africa, Turkey has also launched massive civil investments there. According to Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, altogether 1,864 projects have been completed over the past few decades, with Turkish investments totaling $85.4 billion. Turkish construction company Yapi Merkezi, for example, won a contract recently worth $2.35 billion to upgrade the railway network in Tanzania.

However, Turkish companies are struggling to compete with Chinese firms, notably in securing the necessary financing of large projects, says Tepebas. "The Chinese state directly supports its companies through its Exim Bank. Turkish companies cannot get the same support from their banks, and even if they do, the amounts are not comparable."

In 2023 alone, Chinese investments in Africa reached a total of $282 billion. By comparison, Turkey's investment to date has been around $10 billion.

Volkan Ipek thinks that Turkey's engagement in Africa falls behind Russia's politically and China's economically. "Instead of focussing mainly on imports and exports, Turkey should invest more and undertake some mega projects," he said and named the so-called Medusa project as a good example — a submarine fiber-optic cable in the Mediterranean that will link northern Africa with southern Europe and is being built without Turkey. 

Edited by: Uwe Hessler