Turkey Could Offer Valuable Launching Pad For U.S. Forces

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell headed off to Asia on Friday with difficult issues involving Japan, China and South Korea on his agenda. But the retired U.S. Army general also was likely to be mulling over a pressing problem created by a key ally that lies at the crossroads between Europe and the Middle East.

That ally is Turkey and the issue is the potential Turkish endorsement of a plan that would allow Washington to deploy tens of thousands of troops in the NATO country for a possible invasion of Iraq. Turkey has been wary of complete support for a US-led invasion and on Friday said their decision on allowing American troops to use Turkey as a springboard was still a few days off.

"They understand our worries, we understand theirs. A result will be reached in the coming days," Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul told an Istanbul meeting.

The reason to use Turkey

For the United States, Turkey would provide a key launching pad if the Bush administration decided to invade Iraq. Knowing the country's value, the U.S. government is willing to pay a major price, up to $26 billion in grants and loan guarantees to compensate Turkey for war-related economic damage. Turkey has asked for $30 billion.

The point of the U.S. assistance is to win valuable maneuver room for the commander of U.S. forces, Army General Tommy Franks. With Turkish permission, Franks could open what one analyst called a "two-pronged" war against the forces of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

In this scenario, U.S. troops would swarm across the 218-mile border that Turkey shares with Iraq and pour in from the south in Kuwait. "That would split Saddam's forces," said Phillip Mitchell of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Saddam would not know from one day to another where the pressure would come from."

Oil fields would be a key goal

As part of this two-front assault, the forces invading from the north would have their eye fixed on the Iraqi oil fields stretching across this region, said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East editor for Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment in London.

The short-term goal of this mission would be clear, Binnie said: to prevent Iraqi forces from destroying the oil fields in the same way they did in Kuwait in 1991.

By preventing a repeat of this pollution and cleanup nightmare, U.S. forces could also help a postwar government, he said. "They need as much oil flowing as possible to fund the reconstruction of Iraq," Binnie said.

Even if they accomplish the task of protecting the fields, a successor government in Iraq would be unable to count on major revenue for years to come, according to a study by Rice University's Baker Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations.

The report concludes that it will take 18 months to three years and $5 billion to bring the Iraqi oil industry back to pre-1990s production levels of 3.5 million barrels per day. Currently, the country's oil production capacity in Iraq is around 100,000 barrels per day, the study said.

U.S. troops seen as security force

As an offshoot of the operation, U.S. forces could help secure a region that is a potential source of trouble for Turkish leaders. Northern Iraq is the home of the Kurds, and the Turkish leaders worry that if the Kurds formed an independent state in the north of Iraq, Kurdish guerrillas in southeastern Turkey could resume their rebellion.

In anticipation of Turkish approval, four U.S. ships carrying tanks and other heavy equipment for the Army's 4th Infantry Division are waiting off the Turkish coast, according to The Washington Post and other news reports. A Pentagon spokesman would not confirm these figures in an interview with DW-WORLD on Friday.

A Turkish refusal would force Franks to make other plans. The general acknowledged this much in a television interview with the Fox News Channel this week.

''In every case with a good war plan, there are many ways to accomplish the mission that we may be given,'' Franks said.

Life-saving operation

Loren Thompson, chief executive officer of the Lexington Institute, a think tank in Arlington, Va., said the loss of Turkey as an invasion launching pad would have two major disadvantages. The operation "would take longer and more Americans would be likely to die," Thompson told DW-WORLD on Friday.

Binnie also suggested this change of plan "would make things harder." Instead of sending troops backed by armor from Turkey, Franks would likely have to send in airborne units to accomplish the mission, he said.

In an earlier interview with The Boston Globe, Thompson said he envisioned a similar solution. But Thompson said an assault using C-17 transport planes to airlift forces into northern Iraq would be difficult. That deployment ''would require a lot of sorties, and we don't have a lot of those aircraft,'' he told The Globe.

Such airlifts would raise another logistical problem as well, Thompson told DW-WORLD. "You have to get the forces to a secure location where they could board the planes," he said.

Focus on the political issue

For now, though, Washington officials' priority is the political decision to be made by the Turkish government. The United States already has won one round of support from the Turks as part of the military buildup against Iraq. Earlier this month, the country's parliament took a first step in supporting the United States by allowing the American military to renovate several bases and ports for use in case a war starts.

But the issue of allowing thousands of more U.S. troops into the country for an invasion of Iraq remains a problem. Binnie suggested that the Turkish government eventually would go along. "They cannot afford to say no," he said.

For one thing, such a refusal could dampen U.S. support in other areas, like Turkey's drive to join the European Union, he said. "The United States might not be as supportive as previously," Binnie said.

Thompson also said he expected the Turkish government to support the United States. "They don't want to lose influence over a postwar Iraq," he said.

U.S. backing of Turkey

In the give and take of international politics, the United States has stood by Turkey in another international arena, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The United States asked NATO last month to begin military planning to support the member Turkey in case of war. The request set off an internal dispute that climaxed when Germany, France and Belgium filed vetoes against the plan on Feb. 10. The dispute, described as one of the worst in NATO's 53-year history, was finally settled late Sunday after a 13-hour session.

Turkey and the United States have long military ties. A key focus of U.S. military operations is Incirlik Air Base in south-central Turkey.

In 1960, Francis Gary Powers took off from the base in a U-2 spy plane before he was shot over the Soviet Union in an incident that triggered a Cold War crisis. The base also played a major role in the Persian Gulf War. Today, it is the staging area for Operation Northern Watch, the mission of monitoring the northern no-fly zone in Iraq.