Russian President Vladimir Putin really needs to win this aggressive war against Ukraine quickly. And that's not because he has a conscience or any scruples. No, it is because the coffins of young Russians, who died fighting their neighbors, people with whom they share Orthodox Christian values, will soon cast doubt on Russian state propaganda about this being purely a defensive action.
Soon it will be Lent, the period during which eastern European Orthodox Christians fast and prepare for Easter. Putin likes to present himself as a pious Christian at this time, with a candle in his hand. But that picture won't jibe with photographs of dead women, children and men, who have been killed over the past days, thanks to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This war won't be over quickly though.The Ukrainians won't give up, even if they have to fight with their bare hands and home-made Molotov cocktail explosives.
Moral high ground?
The Russian people bore much suffering during the Soviet era and they showed great courage during the Second World War. But it is not like the Ukrainians are in any way lesser than the Russians. Additionally, the Ukrainians stand on more solid moral ground in this case. They are defending THEIR country, THEIR families, THEIR lives. The Russian soldiers are there as aggressors, occupiers, kin-killers.
It is true that for the hesitant West, there wasno enmity with Russia until recently. We promoted bilateral trade, we cooperated in the political, cultural and scientific sectors.
Millions of Russians regularly travelled to Spain, Greece and Turkey as tourists, alongside plenty of Western Europeans who also spend their vacations in those lands.
All of that was exactly why nobody could imagine Putin committing this crime, or that Russians would follow him in this mad pursuit.
Putin is correct that Europeans are not well equipped to deal with this. They have taken their prosperous, privileged lives for granted. But that has changed now. Every freedom- and peace-loving European sees this crime against Ukraine as an attack upon themselves. Everyone sees that Putin lies almost every time he opens his mouth, and that he doesn't abide by any international treaties or rules.
Many Germans are dismayed by the sudden realization that right now, only the US can guarantee German security. Of course, they're grateful for that. But can a mother in Mississippi be expected to send her children to fight to guarantee European security, if a mother in Berlin is not prepared to do the same?
German policy turnaround
Germany has to wake up and understand that peace, freedom and democracy don't come for free.
With each picture of crying children in Kyiv's underground train stations, where they've sought shelter from Putin's bombs, the resolve to revive the German military's operational capacities and to strengthen the NATO alliance grows. Europeans are willing to sacrifice for their values and they'll stand up to Russia's declaration of war on the continent's peaceful political order.
The civilized world's prospects for winning this battle look good. Putin might try to make the world and his countrypeople believe that Russia is strong. But that too is a lie. The morale in Russia might be good if locals think they are standing up for what is right. But sooner or later, they will begin to realize that their war against neighboring Ukraine is a crime — despite what Russian state-controlled media says.
In economic terms too, Russia is weak because Putin has proven incapable of modernizing his nation. Today's political class is more corrupt than even in the time of former Soviet leader, Leonid Brezhnev. Back then, political corruption became a major obstacle to the Soviet Union's economic development.
Putin himself only tolerates those who agree with him, whom he then humiliates on live television.
Making sacrifices
Economic sanctions and significantly higher spending on the defense sector won't be enough to win in this confrontation with a dictator though. Russia's criminal elite must also be isolated. Diplomatic relations must be reduced to the very minimum.
However the West must be careful not to lock out younger Russians. Both the German and American economies desperately need hundreds of thousands more skilled workers. Those individuals who want to emigrate, to live a normal life in a more secure environment, must still be welcomed.
Because one thing is already clear: Russia's war against Ukraine and the new arms race it is engendering will cost a lot of money. Additionally Putin will only be able to go on as head of his country if he turns Russia into one giant jail, a place more like China.
And that is actually one more good reason why our freedom-loving societies have to emerge victorious from this confrontation. Beijing is watching things closely. If Putin succeeds in overcoming Ukraine, then China may well attack Taiwan and others.
At that stage, might would rule the world order and only the strongest would have a say. Humankind would return to barbarism.
But it doesn't have to come to that. In order to ensure that it doesn't, we must once again be prepared to make some sacrifices to save our freedoms and our way of life.
This commentary was originally published in German.