Transatlantic relations

It was just a few weeks ago that US President Barack Obama got a "crash course" in European politics, as he jokingly noted.

"There are a lot of meetings here in Europe," Obama said in his press conference after the G20 summit in Cannes earlier this month. "Trying to coordinate all those different interests is laborious, it's time consuming." It isn't just the president who finds it difficult to comprehend why the Europeans meet so often without reaching any concrete results.

Now, Europe is a guest in Washington. On November 28, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman van Rompuy will meet with President Obama for the annual EU-US Summit. And there too, no groundbreaking results are expected. It is a "continuous dialogue," European diplomatic circles in Washington report. At the same time, it's indicated that this marks the first time that the European Union is only represented by "European" politicians at a summit in the US - and no longer by a country or government leader of one of the EU member states. Europe does in fact speak with one voice now.

Economic issues and financial crisis top the agenda

The dominating issue during the talks will be the economic and financial crises, which are dictating the political agenda on both sides of the Atlantic. There are plans to set up a working group which is supposed to find ways to improve transatlantic economic relations better in order to create jobs and stimulate growth. The findings of this body are then supposed to be presented at the next summit in 2012.

Already now, transatlantic trade and investment relations are unparalleled worldwide. They make up for 49 percent of the global gross domestic product and a third of world trade. Some 1.8 billion euros ($2.4 billion) of goods and services cross the Atlantic daily, more than 15 million jobs are associated with this trade.

In addition to the economy, which the Transatlantic Economic Council will also focus on during the summit, there are many other topics to discuss: The developments in the Arab world, the Middle East peace process, Iran's nuclear ambitions, the threat of international terrorism, both in the real world and in cyberspace, as well as energy security and climate change - to name a few. In addition, deals will be addressed such as the recently agreed exchange of air passenger data which gives the Europeans more rights than the current agreement.

Giving Europe the cold shoulder?

But the Europeans are worried that the US is increasingly orientating itself towards Asia. After all, the US president just completed a 10-day trip through the region and said that the 21st century would be America's Pacific century. The Europeans are particularly pleased that the summit hasn't been combined with other appointments, but rather stands alone. They want to put things into perspective from their point of view.

Europeans are needlessly worried, though, said Daniel Hamilton, executive director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. The extensive economic relations showed how closely the two sides are intertwined.

"We are just as much a Pacific as we are an Atlantic power and this has been the case for a couple of decades already," Hamilton said.

Four transatlantic scenarios

Hamilton is one of the publishers of a study by the German foundation Heinrich Böll Stiftung called "Transatlantic 20/20: The US and Europe in an Interpolar World." It presents four possible scenarios for a transatlantic future: An expanded, influential Atlantic network that includes Africa and Latin America; an isolated America which has lost influence; a Europe that has fallen behind and finally: a Europe and US which have fallen behind newly industrialized countries due to their financial problems and aging population.

"Politically, the alliance is no longer what is once was," Hamilton said. But this should be viewed as a positive development, as the stability of Europe is no longer the main problem for the Americans as it was during the 20th century, when Europe was a "source of danger" for the world. Now, he said, it's about whether "the Europeans are capable of acting as a partner of the Americans to together face issues such as climate change, Afghanistan or the challenges in the Arab world or not." A further question is whether the Americans are capable of working with partners when this cooperation proves to be frustrating and difficult from a US perspective.

Hamilton says it's now up to the politicians to show the way ahead. How they deal with the economic crisis, which is also very much a political one, is decisive. In order to maintain global influence those governments will have to convince the public that they stand to gain from a healthy economy. And there must be a clear emphasis on the strengths of a transatlantic community, says Hamilton.

"Whenever we have transatlantic consensus, we are the vanguard of a global coalition pursuing a clear aim, whatever that may be." However, he warns, in the absence of such unity there is no other coalition that can achieve those aims. Hamilton himself is optimistic that the problems can be solved and that there is a future for transatlantic ties.

Global shift?

Stephen Szabo, director of the Transatlantic Academy in Washington is more pessimistic than Hamilton.

"I think the Americans are losing confidence in the EU as the voice of Europe based on what they've been seeing in the past year or two in Europe," Szabo said. "I think they would like to see the EU be cohesive and speak for Europe, but I think there's growing skepticism that that's the case."

Szabo says the Washington mindset is such that Germany is perceived as the center of power in Europe and that the continent is seen as a problem rather than a partner. As a result, he says, a historical change is taking place in which the West's influence is waning and emerging Pacific-region countries are gaining in stature.

"That's the big danger, that we are seeing a serious decline of the West, both North America and Europe. We may be seeing one of these pivot points in history where the shift will move away from the West towards some of the rising powers in the Pacific and elsewhere. So I think we are facing the real prospect that there is going to be a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the world."

The political polarization in the US coupled with Europe's inability to form a common consensus on crucial decisions is a recipe for disaster, says Szabo.

"So we're losing control over our own fate," he said.

Regardless of which camp turns out to be right, the upheavals in the transatlantic partnership can't be rolled back. However there is still time and scope to give those changes the desired direction.

Author: Christina Bergmann, Washington / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge