Disappointment in Egypt

Amazed expressions, glowing faces, radiant smiles - these are the moments captured on Cairo's Tahrir Square in January 2011. In the video accompanying the protest song "Sout Al Horeya" ("Voice of Freedom") by Hany Adel and Amir Eid, the pictures tell the story of Egyptians fighting for their freedom. It has been viewed millions of times on YouTube.

But this euphoric atmosphere is long gone. One and a half years after the fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime, there are not many traces of the revolution left. It appears as though the protesters of the first round of demonstrations have lost their voice, and the idea of freedom has become fiction.

With slogans such as "The people demand the fall of the regime," hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets at the beginning of last year. Who they were and where they came from seemed to have no significance: together, they forced the long-standing Egyptian leader out of office, demanding democracy and the right to participate in political decisions. And as the Egyptian military assumed power over the country, it seemed like a new era had begun.

After taking the reigns, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces was supposed to hand over power to a civilian government within a few months. But this still has not happened. At the same time, for many Egyptians it looks as if the military council wants to retain its authority more than ever.

A return of the old powers?

The dissolution of the parliament elected a few months ago and the decision to allow Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, to participate in the run-off presidential election has been interpreted by some observers as a type of coup by the old powers, which are represented in the military council, as well as in the highest court and administration. But many Egyptians dream of peace and order, and are dogged by the country's stagnating economy and increasing crime rate. This is why some can imagine Shafiq as the future leader.

"There are many people in rural areas who don't have much of a clue about the protests and revolts of last year," said Oliver Schlumberger, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics at the University of Tübingen. "To them, Ahmed Shafiq may represent increased stability."

'A choice between the plague and cholera'

Yet many see Shafiq as representing the old regime - and hope that Mohammed Morsi becomes the new president. The moderate Islamist has a rather uncharismatic image, but is still a lesser evil for some than the former prime minister. As leader of the Freedom and Justice Party, Morsi led the Muslim Brotherhood into the parliamentary elections. With 45 percent the vote, it became Egypt's strongest political force. During this election, its members are hoping for a similar result.

Many of the first-wave activists do not see the two candidates as acceptable choices. In the last few days, they've been calling for a boycott of the elections, declaring them a "choice between the plague and cholera." A great number of them are disappointed with the outcome of the revolution, as their demands for co-determination, a civil government and an independent justice system have not been met.

Asiem El Difraoui, a Middle East expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that "the liberal forces that wanted to turn Egypt into a secular democracy seem to be very weak right now."

"Especially women, who greatly assisted the revolutionaries, have not gained a lot of emancipation through the uprising," El Difraoui added.

The liberals' resentment over the failings of the uprising seems to be growing. There is talk of large-scale demonstrations in case the elections are not fairly executed.

Fragmented opposition

However, it is hard to estimate the exact number of disillusioned revolutionaries, as the once united opposition is now fractured, and the dividing lines in the Egyptian society are blurred and in flux.

"The Muslim Brotherhood, for example, is what we in Germany would call a large people's party: it unites very different political movements under one name," said Schlumberger.

While the Brotherhood, together with the military council, has till now been seen as the winner of the revolution, its influence sank with the Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court's Thursday decision to dissolve the Islamist-dominated parliament. Secularists in Egyptian society are concerned that the party would have Egypt become an Islamic state.

The revolution's achievements

Despite all the uncertainty and disappointment, one thing seems clear: Egyptians will not be worse off in the future than under Mubarak.

"Even if a military dictatorship comes into existence, Egyptians from all sections of the political spectrum are convinced that the clock can't be turned back," explained El Difraoui. "There will never again be a dictatorship like the Mubarak regime."

However, should the military authority remain in power, the participants of the initial uprisings would likely again raise their voices. They may be disappointed, but they are not afraid, as many of the changes brought about by the revolution are here to stay.

Author: Anne Allmeling / ew
Editor: Sonya Diehn