Taking stock of Pakistan's government a year after elections

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) took the reins of government on February 8, 2024, following a contested election that saw the popular opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) banned from contesting candidates.

Political tensions are still high, with Imran Khan, the imprisoned PTI leader and former prime minister, maintaining widespread popularity while continuing to insist his lengthy jail sentence is politically motivated.

Khan has called for fresh protests on Saturday, marking one year since the 2024 election.

Is Imran Khan losing momentum?

Despite continued political protests carried out by PTI supporters, analysts contend that this has not been enough to move the needle, as the PML-N enjoys significant support from Pakistan's powerful military.

"A year after a marred election, the civilian coalition government, in partnership with the military, has consolidated control over the country," Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

"Of course, it has come at quite a bit of cost — to the country's democracy, to the judiciary's independence, to people's freedom of speech and right to information — and its benefits are in question," she added. 

Khan was removed from premiership in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Pakistan's parliament.

Last month, a court sentenced Khan to an additional prison sentence of 14 years for corruption, along with his wife, Bushra Bibi.

Khan is currently facing nearly 200 legal cases, but his party asserts that the recent conviction is being used as a tactic to force him out of politics.

"The enduring political crisis is a consequence of an especially bitter and brutal confrontation between Khan and the military and civilian leadership," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "Khan is unwilling to walk back his harsh criticism of the establishment, and the establishment is unwilling to ease up on its crackdown."

Khan called for his supporters to protest after receiving a lengthy new jail sentence. However, experts say Khan may be losing some momentum.

"My sense is that the level of political chaos has plateaued. The PTI's protests have not accomplished their goals, and the government-military team seem to have cemented their hold on power for the remainder of this electoral term," said Afzal.

Raza Rumi, a political analyst, told DW that despite energizing the PTI base and putting Sharif's government under pressure, "weak party organization and infighting within the party ranks" mean pro-Khan protests have "not yielded the desired results."

Economic indicators improving

For years, Pakistan has been dealing with an economic crisis marked by high inflation, a depreciating currency and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.

However, there is some room for optimism this week after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported year-on-year inflation came in at 2.4% ­— the lowest in nine years. This marks a significant decline from the 28.3% recorded in January 2024.

"One year after the February 2024 election, Pakistan's economy seems to have stabilized and this has certainly boosted the confidence of the current 'hybrid regime,'" said Rumi.

"Politicians in power have made arrangements to continue the current regime and have removed all the threats, in particular, the independent judges who may have questioned the act of the current hybrid order," he added.

Currently, Pakistan is benefiting from a $7-billion (€6.7-billion) support package from the IMF, which was granted in September, as it works toward economic recovery.

In January, Pakistan agreed to an unprecedented 10-year plan with the World Bank which will see $20 billion (€19.4 billion) worth of loans for the country's cash-strapped economy.

Last week, Pakistan's central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 12%, reflecting the easing of inflation and the anticipated growth following a total of 1,000 basis points in rate cuts over the past six months.

The State Bank of Pakistan has significantly lowered rates from a peak of 22% in June, marking one of the most aggressive actions among central banks in emerging markets, surpassing the 625 basis points cut implemented in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In December, Pakistan's consumer inflation rate was recorded at 4.1%, the lowest in over six years, aided by favorable base effects. This figure was below the government's expectations and a notable decrease from the multi-decade high of approximately 40% observed in May 2023.

'Path toward will not be easy'

Analyst Rumi said a stable path forward for Pakistan's democracy would require a "broad base consensus on the next election and how it should be held under a neutral election commission."

"Perhaps this quagmire can best be addressed through an early election, and history tells us that handling the current level of political instability would require an understanding of a free and fair election within the next two years," he said. 

On healing political wounds, Kugelman said the "only way forward is dialogue."

"Talks [between government officials and Khan's aides] collapsed in recent days, but at least there was an effort to sit together. This offers something to build on for the future. Even with all the anger and ill will, the two sides have been willing to engage," he added. 

Afzal agrees that Pakistan's opposing political parties need to bury the hatchet.

"The current level of political fighting will continue until there is some sort of reconciliation and political space allowed to the opposition — and that would be the right path forward for Pakistan and for its democracy — but the path toward will not be easy."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn