Survey: Germans fear Russia — and political instability

There is a sense of crisis in Germany: The economy has slipped into recession, and many people are worried about jobs and inflation. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are also weighing on Germans' minds.

And then, as if to add to the uncertain mood, there was the collapse of Olaf Scholz's coalition government — until recently made up of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the neoliberal FDP — which has triggered an early general election on February 23 next year.

Fear of Russia and Putin remains high

Researchers from infratest-dimap, conducting the latest DeutschlandTrend survey for public broadcaster ARD, asked Germans what they are most concerned about at the moment. Based on interviews with around 1,350 representatively selected citizens, the result was clear: At the top of the list, with 65%, was the fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would attack other European countries in the future.

Compared to the survey conducted before the last federal election in 2021, the number of people who fear political uncertainty will continue has risen sharply. Confidence in politicians has also declined.

Germans prepare for likely new Chancellor Merz

Germany is currently being governed by a minority government of the SPD and the Greens after the coalition with the FDP broke up in early November. This damaged the standing of all three parties in opinion polls, and though Scholz's SPD had recovered slightly in recent weeks, all the signs suggest that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, will win next year's election. The most likely outcome of this is a coalition government of the CDU, its Bavarian sister-party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the SPD.

The second strongest force in German politics is currently the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), sections of which are considered by intelligence agencies to be so extreme that they are a threat to Germany's constitutional order.

Poor approval ratings for all chancellor candidates

Along with the incumbent Scholz and opposition leader Merz, there are two other candidates running for chancellor: Economy Minister Robert Habeck for the Greens, and AfD leader Alice Weidel.

All four candidates have relatively poor approval ratings, reflecting general uncertainty about the political situation in Germany. Merz, at 28%, is slightly ahead of Habeck, on 27%, while Scholz is only on 19%, ahead of Weidel in last place with 17%.

Most parties in favor of further Ukraine support

One of the predominant topics as election campaigning begins is the question of whether Germany should continue to support Ukraine in the war against Russia. Most parties are in favor, albeit with differences in the details. The AfD is against it, while the renegade leftists of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also very skeptical.

US President-elect Donald Trump is said to be planning an agreement that would end the war, although it will likely entail Ukraine surrendering territory to Moscow.

Some 39% of Germans believe that Germany is sending too many arms to Ukraine, though a large majority also believes that Ukraine must decide for itself whether and when the country is ready to negotiate with Russia to end the war. But a slight majority shares the view that this will hardly be possible without ceding territory to Russia.

This article was originally published in German.

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