Subte shift

The statement of the UN Security Council, condemning the Syrian government's crackdown on protesters and human rights violations, has been approved by permanent council member Russia.

Although the regime in Damascus currently was issued only a verbal warning, Gernot Erler, former Minister of State at the Federal Foreign Office, told Deutsche Welle that this could be "a turning point in Russian politics."

However, Moscow won't allow a UN resolution on Syria, neither now and nor in the future, argues Russian political analyst and president of the Polity Foundation Vyacheslav Nikonov.

According to Nikonov, Russia is concerned about the stability in the Middle East and fears that meddling in the Syrian conflict would lead to a civil war. The arms deals between Moscow and Damascus play only a minor role, holds Aleksandr Golz, a Moscow-based independent military expert.

While Syria is an important partner for the Russian defense industry, Golz argues that there is no strategic partnership between both countries.

Arms deals with Syria

Nevertheless, Syria remains one of the key buyers of Russian military products in the Middle East, notes Golz. In the past the military cooperation between Russia and Syria has been rocked by some scandals. Despite Israeli protests, Russia sold modern short range surface-to-air systems and tank buster rockets to Syria. Some of them apparently ended up in the hands of Hezbollah.

These days Syria is mainly paying for the maintenance and modernization of Soviet-era armaments and the Russian navy operates a small base in the Syrian port of Tartus. According to Golz, this base is used exclusively to supply Russian navy vessels.

The biggest arms deals between Moscow and Damascus were conducted in the 1970s. However, Syria de facto got many arms for free, because Russia in 2005 wrote off nearly ten billion dollars of Syrian debt - mainly from previous arms purchases. Syrian military planes and its T-72 tanks, which are used in the current brutal assault on Hama which left dozens dead, date back to Brezhnev era.

Change of mind in Moscow?

Germany which held the rotating chair in the UN Security Council in July failed to pass a resolution against Syria's behaviour. During the recent German-Russian government consultations in Hanover, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Syria should be reprimanded.

But sending a clear signal to Damascus was rejected by Moscow until August 3 and the events in Hama. Moscow had argued that it was disappointed by the consequences of the UN mandated no-fly zone over Libya, said Nikonov. It had not intended that the no-fly zone turned into a full-fledged military operation, argued the political scientist who is close to the Kremlin.

But the Hama incident outraged Moscow, said Erler. "These people became the victims of a downright massacre."

As a consequence, Russia approved the statement of the UN Security Council, noted Erler and added that he believes that Moscow has realized now that Bashar al-Assad who is conducting a war against his own people can not be partner for cooperation in the future.

Author: Viacheslav Yurin/ce
Editor: Michael Knigge