Sri Lanka election: What's at stake after economic collapse?

Two years after violent anti-government protests, Sri Lankans are preparing to vote in a critical presidential election.

"We need hope. We don't need someone who will cheat us again," Colombo resident Priyadarshini Guhan told DW.

Sri Lanka is set to hold its presidential election on September 21, marking the first electoral process since the nation defaulted on its debt and declared bankruptcy in 2022.

Nearly 17 million out of Sri Lanka's population of 22 million are eligible to vote this Saturday.

Nearly 40 candidates are running for the top job. Whoever ends up in office will have to tackle massive challenges.

Why is the election important?

The 2022 crisis prompted shortages of fuel and medicine, with people struggling to afford food.

Faced with nationwide unrest, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and was replaced by his prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The Sri Lankan economy is now growing after the 7.5% dip in 2022 and shrinking by 2.3% last year.

However, most working-class people have yet to see any benefits.

"The economy is still fragile. The dollar-earning capacity remains weak, and the new president will face significant challenges in rebuilding it," said M. Ganeshamoorthy, an economist from Colombo University.

He emphasized that this election is pivotal for Sri Lanka as it represents a turning point following the economic and political crises that led to the downfall of the previous government.

Ganeshamoorthy also warned the country could face a repeat of the 2022 crisis, or potentially something even worse, if the new president fails to act decisively.

Who are the main candidates?

The ballot will include a total of 38 candidates. The top contenders are incumbent President Wickremesinghe — who is running as an independent candidate — as well as opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People's Power (NPP), an alliance led by the leftist party.

Namal Rajapaksa, the eldest son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is also in the fray for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) faction.

Despite the island nation having elected the world's first woman prime minister in 1960, this election will feature no female candidates.

How does the election work?

Under the country's preferential voting system, people can select up to three candidates from the ballot paper in the order of their preference.

Votes will be cast on September 21 and the results are expected the following day.

First, all first-choice votes will be counted. If any candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes, they will be declared the winner.

If there is no clear winner, second preferential votes come into play. Only the top two candidates from the first count remain in the race, and the second preferences are then tallied to determine the winner.

Tamil and other minorities as 'icing' on the cake

With so many politicians in the running, most analysts predict that no single candidate will secure the required 50% of the votes.

"The minority votes assume greater significance because the Sinhala vote may be split almost equally among three main candidates," columnist DBS Jeyaraj told DW.

Sri Lanka's majority ethnic group, the Sinhalese, makes up roughly three-quarters of the population. The 2012 census shows Sri Lankan Tamils as the second-largest ethnic group at 11.1%, followed by Sri Lankan Muslims at 9.3%, and Tamils of Indian origin (Hill Country Tamils) at 4.1%.

"The cake will be baked by Sinhala votes, but the icing will be the minority votes," Jeyaraj said.

Wickremesinghe secured billions from IMF

Economist Ganeshamoorthy notes that economy was the main focus of this election cycle, unlike ethnic issues which dominated elections in the past.

With economic concerns in the spotlight, many experts see this election as a referendum on President Wickremesinghe and on the government's handling of the crisis and recovery.

In 2023, President Wickremesinghe secured a $2.9 billion (€2.6 billion) bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"By cooperating fully with the IMF, the Wickremesinghe government ushered in much needed economic relief. The rupee has been strengthened. Inflation reduced. The tax base has expanded. The debt re-structuring program has been implemented," columnist DBS Jeyaraj told DW.

Sri Lankan economy still not 'out of the woods'

At the same time, Wickremesinghe faces criticism for tax and electricity price hikes associated with the government's austerity measures.

While there has been a tangible progress, Jeyaraj said thinking sections of the Sri Lankan public are fully aware that the country has only got a respite.

"Economically, the country is not out of the woods yet," he told DW.

Between 2019 and 2023, poverty levels more than doubled, with over a quarter of the population living below the poverty line, according to World Bank data.

Colombo resident Priyadarshini Guhan confirms that wages are stagnant while prices keep going up.

"We, the middle class, are suffering," he told DW. "But we need to choose the right leader with a vision for the country."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic