Baby flop instead of baby boom

For the past thirty years, China has been shaped by its one-child policy. Couples were only allowed to have two children if both parents had been only children themselves. But at the beginning of last year the rule was relaxed. Since then couples have been allowed to have two children even if only one of them is an only child. But nothing is happening in Chinese bedrooms. Those who were expecting eight million babies in the next five years got it wrong.

One year into the reform, it's already clear that the birth rate last year hardly rose at all and was even well behind the more realistic expectations. So far behind, in fact, that China's demographic outlook is looking just as bleak as it did before the reforms were deemed necessary and initiated. The first figures since the reform are sobering for Beijing. Of 11 million couples who have become eligible for an extra child only one million have even applied for permission. The government had hoped for double that figure.

Worries about the costs

This baby drought is unexpected. In 2012, 60 percent of couples said they would like a second child if the law were changed. But polls should not be confused with real life. Two years can be a very long time in China. Rapid urbanization has changed Chinese attitudes.

Now, roughly 70 percent do not want a second child because the costs are daunting. A second reason given by families is a lack of time, due to work, to take care of an additional child. With costs and careers now the more pressing concerns than more heirs, China has, at 1.5 per woman, one of the lowest birth rates in the world. Germans know this scenario all too well.

If Chinese demographics continue down this path, the number of people over 60 in China will soon exceed the entire population of the US.:400 million. For now, the figure is 171 million. Germany is also an aging society, but the average age is only 45 at present. China's population is young in comparison: in 2010, the average age was 22.5. In the past five years this has jumped to 34.5. Soon the Chinese will not only overtake us in exports, but also in terms of average age.

More Incentives Needed

China is already under the strain of losing 3.5 million working-age people every year. If the trend continues it will be shedding 8 million workers a year from 2023 on. By 2040, the workforce will have shrunk from 817 to 696 million people. China is in urgent need of babies to counter this development. But relaxing the one child policy is not enough to persuade more people to have more children. Living standards have to rise, too. People need more in their pockets and less spending on care for children and parents.

Beijing's reforms do not go far enough. Legalizing a second child is just the first step. At least in the cities, family planning needs to be backed up by the state with child support and paid parental leave. This will definitely turn out cheaper than if the Chinese state just sits back and does nothing.

DW-columnist Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for the past 20 years.