Poland seeks new partners in Scandinavia and the Baltics

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was hailed as a bearer of hope in Sweden this week. "Poland is a star," said the Swedish premier, Ulf Kristersson, commending the government in Warsaw for its high level of defense spending. Tusk confirmed that Poland will spend 4.2% of its GDP on the military this year, and its defense budget is set to increase to 4.7% in 2025.

"Poland is becoming an important player on security policy," the Swedish news agency TT wrote appreciatively. A photo posted on X shows Tusk and Kristersson in conversation in a rowing boat, accompanied by Kristersson's dog, Winston.

This was the first time Tusk had participated in a meeting of the NB8 (Nordic-Baltic 8) countries. The two-day summit was held at Harpsund, the Swedish prime minister's country residence, and concluded on Thursday, when Tusk and Kristersson signed an agreement elevating the strategic partnership between their countries from foreign minister level to that of heads of government.

Poland, northern Europe and the Baltics 'like a fist'

"Poland's security is Sweden's security," Kristersson said after the signing ceremony. Tusk described the closing of ranks between northern Europeans and the Baltics as the establishment of a "solid group of states in solidarity," a group that "speaks and thinks identically, including on the most difficult issues, which certainly includes Russia's invasion of Ukraine." He emphasized that "it will send an important message to Europe that, on this issue, we are like a fist."

The NB8 group has existed informally since the 1990s. It consists of the Scandinavian countries — Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden — and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Tusk proposed a joint surveillance of the Baltic Sea by the navies of the western coastal states — "a sort of Baltic Sea policing" along the lines of NATO's own Baltic Air Policing mission, which guards the airspace over the sea.

"I am very glad my colleagues were interested in this idea. We will continue to discuss the details," the Polish prime minister said.

Not quite two weeks ago, two undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea were mysteriously damaged. One ran between Helsinki in Finland and the German port of Rostock, the other between Sweden and Lithuania. The police have not ruled out sabotage. Investigators suspect the damage was caused by the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3, which allegedly passed the sites of the breaks at the relevant times.

'If Europe stands united, Russia is a dwarf'

Before leaving Warsaw, Tusk appealed to other countries not to give in to Vladimir Putin's threats, saying: "If Europe stands united, then Russia is a technological, financial and economic dwarf in relation to Europe. If Europe is divided, Russia is a threat to each individual European state."

At the summit in Sweden, the participants announced their intention to support arms production in Ukraine, increase ammunition supplies, and strengthen its energy infrastructure "so that Ukrainians can survive the winter." They will also support Ukraine on its path to NATO and EU membership.

"Russia does not want peace. If we want a free Europe, we must give Ukraine everything it needs. There can be no red lines," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Long tradition of Polish–Swedish partnership

Poland has a history of cooperation with Sweden, but this was overshadowed in the past by its close partnerships with Germany and France. In 2008, it was the Polish and Swedish foreign ministers — Radoslaw Sikorski and Carl Bildt — who initiated the Eastern Partnership, a political and economic cooperation program between the EU and six former Soviet states, aimed at supporting reform processes in the EU's eastern neighbors.

In his first governmental declaration on December 12, 2023, Tusk didn't mention Germany once. Instead, he announced plans for closer cooperation with the Baltic states, and with Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

This shift in orientation toward northern Europe is in large part a consequence of Polish disappointment with Germany. Despite the change in government in Warsaw a year ago, Polish-German relations are still not what they once were. There has been no progress on reparations for the surviving victims of World War II, nor on the investments Poland wants to secure as a frontline state on Europe's eastern border. And now, following the breakup of the coalition government in Berlin, the German-Polish House project to establish a place of remembrance and mutual encounter will probably also be delayed until after the German federal elections.

Poland is disappointed with Germany

Poland's self-assured politicians were deeply offended that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz invited the leaders of France and the UK to the October 20 meeting with US President Joe Biden to discuss the situation in Ukraine, but did not invite a Polish representative. Scholz's recent phone call with Putin also raised new questions about Germany's reliability. "No one will stop Putin with phone calls," Tusk wrote on X, in a criticism of this "telephone diplomacy."

Germany is not the only country that has disappointed Warsaw. Poland's traditional partners in central Europe, Hungary and Slovakia, cannot be considered its allies because of their close relations with Putin's Russia. "We are adapting to the new geopolitical situation," Marek Prawda, undersecretary of state at Poland's ministry of foreign affairs and former ambassador to Berlin and Stockholm, told the PAP news agency. He added that Poland is going back to the "idea of a northern policy."

Tusk's diplomatic offensive also aims to prepare Europe for the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. In Sweden, the Polish prime minister again emphasized that the European Union must put more into its own defense. Poland will assume the EU Council Presidency on January 1, 2025, and Denmark is next in line. Tusk says both countries must work to ensure that Europe "wakes up," insisting: "We have to do more to ensure our own security."

With these new partnerships, Poland's center-left government is trying to show that it has room to maneuver, and is not dependent on Germany. However, this stronger focus on northern Europe does not indicate that it has turned its back on Berlin. Last week there was a meeting in Warsaw of the foreign ministers of the Weimar Triangle (Germany, France, and Poland), which was expanded to include top diplomats from Italy and the UK; and this week Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz visited Berlin.

On Thursday — the day the NB8 summit concluded — it was announced that Germany has proposed to redeploy its Patriot air defense system to southeastern Poland. Coincidence, or a response to Poland's overtures to the countries of northern Europe?

This article has been translated from German.