Klaus Dethloff:In immediate terms, it will mean that we will have a better possibility for transport paths between Europe and Asia, northeast and northwest passages. There will be a better chances for exploration of resources - gas, gas hydrates and oil. And of course, there will be a big impact of these changes in the Arctic on weather and climate.
DW-TV: Now, your field of expertise is the causes and ramifications of climate change. Can we really predict with any accuracy what will happen?
Klaus Dethloff: We have a mixture of anthropogenic impacts on the development of the climate system and climate variation, and this mixture -- the existence of natural climate variations -- can mask the climate changes for the next decades. And until now, we are not sure what will happen in the next decades. Of course, we know that there is a strong human impact on temperature development in the Arctic, but natural variations can mask these variations. So the future is uncertain.
DW-TV: So, if I understand what you're saying, we're actually looking at a combination of causes with both natural factors playing a role and also greenhouse gases.
Klaus Dethloff: Yes, both factors are important, with fifty-fifty percent.
DW-TV: Now we hear a lot about what is happening in the Arctic, but are we seeing the same changes in the Antarctic?
Klaus Dethloff: The Antarctic is a much more stable environment. It has to do with the isolation of the Antarctic continent much more than in the Arctic. In the Arctic we have a much more meridional exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. So in the Arctic we see a much clearer warming trend superimposed or masked by decadal variability, and in the Antarctic this trend is much smaller.
DW-TV: You and your colleagues at the Alfred Wegener have been researching these changes in polar regions for years now. If you had the opportunity, what would you like to tell the delegates at the climate conference in Durban?
Klaus Dethloff: One thing I really believe is that of course we need international commitments and a new protocol following the Kyoto protocol. This is one point, but another important point is that the climate problem cannot be isolated from the world population increase, so we have a so-called climate syndrome: a lot of problems connected with the climate, but the climate problem is not the highest priority. Population increase, environmental problems, water problems, energy problems, food problems.
DW-TV: Klaus Dethloff, thank you very much for joining us.