Opinion: The Impact, if Any, of the Prisoner Swap

The intelligence services coordinator in the chancellor’s office, Ernst Uhrlau, can finally breathe a sign of satisfied relief. After a false start last November, the prisoner exchange between Israel and the Hezbollah, which he had quietly worked on for three years, finally took place.

It was an unfair exchange: three dead and one living Israeli for one German and 434 Arab prisoners and it was an act that surely won’t stop the violence in the region – the recent attack in Jerusalem made that clear. But it was a step in the right direction. As long as both sides take prisoners – some of them are also clearly hostages – there will be no initiative to decrease tension.

The exchange at the Cologne-Bonn airport and the release of Palestinians in Israel are still nothing more than small humanitarian gestures in an area not typically oriented towards humanitarian gestures. The action will not likely have a great effect on the peace process, a realization Germany is likely well aware of.

No greater involvement by Berlin

As successful and helpful as the German involvement in the exchange was, it was not the start of greater engagement on the part of Berlin in the region – definitely not as a middleman in a possible peace talks. The role of Germany will continue to be limited to help of this kind.

Germany has good relationships with all sides in the Middle East conflict and the trust it enjoys helps Berlin mediate in such situations. The good relations to countries in the region include Berlin’s relationship to Teheran -- Uhrlau apparently visited Iran regularly -- and that could have a much greater effect than the direct mediation between Israel and Hezbollah.

Quiet contact between Iran and Israel

Despite the deep distrust between Israel and the Islamic republic, there is interest on both sides to keep up at least minimal contact. Iran is looking for information on the location of some of its diplomats in Lebanon and Israel wants assurances on the fate of four of its citizens who are missing.

The second phase of this exchange should be completed in April and should free more prisoners in Israel. Maybe it also sends a message to the operators, whoever they may be, that their intended goals will not be reached through violent means.

But the experience up until now speaks against that hope and much indicates that the circle of violence will continue. Even if there is no direct connection: exactly 45 minutes separate the arrival of the airplanes from Beirut and Tel Aviv and the bomb attack in Jerusalem. Reason and madness continue to exist side by side in the Middle East.