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Opinion: Olaf Scholz in China — A day trip to a minefield

von Hein Matthias Kommentarbild App
Matthias von Hein
November 3, 2022

Partner? Competitor? Systemic rival? Germany's chancellor must find a balance on his trip to Beijing. When dealing with Xi Jinping's China, naivety is as ill-advised as hysteria, according to DW's Matthias von Hein.

https://p.dw.com/p/4IvLn
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets via video link with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Scholz will be the first Western head of government to visit Xi since his re-election for a third term as head of the Communist PartyImage: Yue Yuewei/Xinhua/IMAGO

It is highly likely no German chancellor has traveled to China under such difficult conditions as Olaf Scholz. Even his own government is quarreling over how to handle Beijing. That was shown recently in the conflict — which bordered on hysteria — when Chinese shipping giant Cosco bought a stake in a container terminal in the Port of Hamburg.

On a European level, it has been noted with suspicion that Olaf Scholz is taking a business delegation with him on his one-day trip to Beijing. That looks like a continuation of the China policy from the era of his predecessor, Chancellor Angela Merkel, which focused on economic development.

At a global level, the rivalry between the US and China is coming to a head. Berlin is facing the question of how it will position itself in the conflict between its most important partner in terms of security and values on one side, and its most important trading partner on the other. Washington is portraying the conflict between the established and ascending superpowers not only as a battle between democracy and autocracy but almost as a battle between good and evil — and expects loyalty from its allies.

US and China: Germany's most important trade partners

As if that were not enough, Chinese President Xi Jinping has just been confirmed for an unprecedented third five-year term as head of the Chinese Communist Party — further extending his dictatorial powers. Scholz is the first top Western leader to meet with Xi after he expanded his authority.

There are opportunities in this visit: An opportunity to speak about humanity's challenge to protect the climate, which will not be achievable without China. A chance to talk about Russia's war against Ukraine and gauge how much influence Beijing might have over Moscow — and how or if it intends to use it. A chance to speak about the tensions surrounding Taiwan. An opportunity to discuss human rights, like the treatment of minorities such as the Uighurs. And, for Scholz, traveling to China with entrepreneurs presents an opportunity to talk about equal access to the markets. That is more important than new contracts — and would also benefit European partners.

Matthias von Hein
DW's Matthias von Hein

In Beijing, Olaf Scholz needs to show how he intends to strike a balance between partnership, competition and strategic rivalry in German relations with China. Germany is no longer naive when it comes to China, but it's still unclear what its new strategy is. What is clear, though, is that it can't replace its former naivety with hysteria, which can sometimes befall those discussing the dangers of the German economy becoming dependent on China.

Economic relations will always be important when it comes to the world's second-largest economy. Dissociation is neither realistic nor desirable. But the top managers have also long since got the message: Diversification is the order of the day for both supply chains and sales markets. There is a need to look for new partners, without giving up on China.

It is bad for the world, for peace, that the lines of communication between Washington and Beijing have largely been severed. Apart from hurling insults at one another, they have little to say. That makes it even more important for Europe to keep communication lines open — especially since their interests are not congruent with those of the US. Scholz, too, should act as a European. 

When French President Emmanuel Macron took a member of Germany's government along with him on a trip to China in 2019, it was a strong show of European unity. Only together can European countries have enough influence to leave a lasting impression on Beijing. Without Europe, Scholz's day trip lacks an essential element.

This text was originally written in German.

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