Lackluster Merkel keeps Macron waiting
For a long time, French President Emmanuel Macron was seen as someone who could breathe new life into the European Union. The youthful and dynamic leader passionately and convincingly urged for greater EU integration on matters of foreign affairs and defense, as well as monetary and economic policy. But realizing these ambitious plans requires the backing of other EU nations, above all Germany. It is certainly hoped that Berlin endorses Macron's plan, but it's not quite that simple.
Indeed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's reaction to Macron's reform agenda has so far been lukewarm. Berlin's approach has been to narrow down Macron's range of ideas to that which is actually feasible. That's the strategy that Merkel again underscored Tuesday during her speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg by reiterating her support for the creation of a European rapid reaction force. That move could pave the way for a common European army, for a banking union that protects savers, for a eurozone investment budget, and for establishing an EU migration and asylum regime based on solidarity.
Out of ideas
Merkel promised to deliver concrete results regarding the taxation of internet companies and the creation of a banking union by mid-December. This corresponds to what she and Macron already agreed in June. Her promise most likely stems from previous French accusations that Germany is slowing EU reform progress.
Other than this, Merkel did not offer any new suggestions or grand visions as to how the EU should evolve in the future. And she did not make clear what her specific European legacy will be. Granted, Merkel did warn Poland, Hungary, Italy and other nations to respect the rule of law. And she did stress the importance of solidarity in European affairs. But she said nothing radically new. Indeed, while Merkel cited the only ever German European commissioner, Walter Hallstein, who in 1969 described the European project as "uniquely audacious," she herself was anything but.
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Merkel is well aware that this will have been her last big speech in the European Parliament, which represents some 500 million EU citizens. She will resign as the leader of Germany's conservative Christian Democrats, and that means her days as German chancellor are numbered. But Germany, the bloc's largest member state, will keep playing a decisive role in EU politics after Merkel ends her 12-year-long reign of pragmatism. Until she steps down, Merkel remains a lame duck who will not be pushing any daring political projects ahead.
Waiting for Merkel's successor
Macron, who too is under considerable domestic pressure, will have to patiently wait until Merkel's political successor takes over in Berlin. Whether this transition will occur prior to the elections for the European Parliament in May 2019 and thereby hopefully reinvigorate European politics, remains wholly unclear. Macron will be campaigning on a decidedly pro-European platform, and doing his utmost to prevent various anti-European populists from entering parliament. For this, a powerful new German chancellor, rather than an increasingly weak Merkel, would certainly be helpful.
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One thing is for sure, however: Whoever takes over from Merkel will hardly sign off on all of Macron's reform plans. The EU is all about compromise, after all. That is a strength, not a weakness. Besides, France and Germany do not get to dictate EU affairs. All 28 member states have a say. This is something Merkel also made clear during her speech in Strasbourg. Macron will have taken note.