October 7: One year on in the Middle East

Saudi Arabia

Since Saudi Arabia froze its normalization talks with Israel in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, the prospective deal has turned into an asset of the Israel-Hamas peace negotiations instead.

Meanwhile, October 7 has also reignited pro-Palestinian solidarity on a social level, Sebastian Sons, senior researcher for the German think tank CARPO, told DW.

Politically and economically, however, the Israel-Hamas war is more seen as a direct threat to the kingdom's ambitious socioeconomic transformation, Sons added.

"In turn, Saudi politics have been focusing on a diplomatic balancing act for the past year," he said.

Lebanon

Shortly after the Hamas terror attacks on Israel, Lebanon's influential armed wing of Hezbollah — which is classified as a terrorist group by the European Union — started striking Israel's north.

"At the beginning, Hezbollah was criticized for deciding to engage in a war with Israel and dragging Lebanon into it," said Kelly Petillo, Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"And yet, Hezbollah has also been enjoying increased support within the Lebanese population since October 7," she added.

In her view, many Lebanese are frustrated with Israel's appalling conduct in Gaza and the lack of results from international diplomacy.

"They started to see Hezbollah as the only guarantor of solidarity with the Palestinians," said Petillo.

However, after almost one year of what analysts call "contained fighting" — which means that mainly military infrastructures were targeted — the situation has escalated in September.

Jordan

Neighboring Jordan , which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, has been walking a political tightrope for the past year.

"Since October 7, Jordan has mostly tried to balance the strong domestic support for the Palestinian cause with its relations with Israel," said Petillo.

Jordan's King Abdullah II and his wife, Queen Rania, who is of Palestinian origin, have repeatedly pointed out that they are not willing to take in more Palestinian refugees.

This would jeopardize the Palestinian cause in general and is in direct violation of the  peace treaty, Petillo explained.

"However, with potential new fronts opening up not only in Lebanon but also in the West Bank, Jordan finds itself faced with its nightmare scenario," said the analyst.

"This situation reignites initial fears that were felt in the very aftermath of October 7, of a spillover and subsequent movement of Palestinians into Jordan."

Occupied West Bank 

"The situation in the West Bank was already very tense before October 7," said Peter Lintl, an associate of the Africa and Middle East division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The Palestinian Authority has been weak for years. Jewish settlers have been attacking Palestinians, Lintl told DW, and the current extreme right-wing Israeli government has exacerbated tensions by stating in their coalition program that the occupied West Bank, or as they call it, Judea and Samaria, can only belong to the Jewish people.

"All of this has intensified since October 7," he added.

Jewish extremist settlers have been brutally assaulting Palestinian civilians.

Tensions between the Israeli army and Palestinian militant factions in the occupied West Bank reached a new peak in September.

"The West Bank is a powder keg that might explode at any time," said Lintl.

"In normal times, you would say there is already an intolerable situation with an incredibly high death toll, only this is being overshadowed by the war in Gaza and October 7," he added.

Syria

"The war that erupted on October 7 has further diverted media attention from Syria and the conflict that has been ongoing for over 13 years," said Lorenzo Trombetta, a Beirut-based Middle East analyst and consultant for United Nations agencies.

Syria's civil war is more and more dominated by foreign powers, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel and the US, he said.

"All actors claim they are fighting terrorism, and they claim to aim for stability and security," Trombetta explained.

Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad, who had been widely isolated over his crackdown on the Syrian population in the Syrian civil war, has been increasingly welcomed back to the Arab and European fold.

"Domestically, Assad's hold on power seems no longer in question," said Trombetta.

For the past year, Assad has remained silent on the events and the aftermath of October 7, he said, adding that "his approach is one of quiet diplomacy far from the media spotlight, aimed at achieving long-term domestic goals."

Egypt

Of all countries in the region, only Egypt has found a way to leverage the crisis to strengthen its geopolitical significance since October 7, said Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has been cooperating with Israel on moving goods into Gaza and helping to maintain the siege, Kaldas explained.

Also, Egypt's central role in the cease-fire negotiations have reestablished Egypt's perceived importance, he added.

"In turn, Cairo has earned a lot of additional support from Washington," said Kaldas. The White House granted Egypt the full $1.3 billion (€1.16 billion) in military assistance in 2024.

"It is the first time the Biden administration has issued the full amount," Kaldas said, adding that in the past, Washington would at least withhold a portion that is conditioned on human rights.

"Yet, in fact, Egypt is actually doing significantly worse on this front," he said.

Before October 7, Egyptians were very much focused on the deterioration of Egypt's economy.

"But the horrific war crimes committed by Israel against Palestinian civilians living in Gaza have divided their attention," said Kaldas, adding that public opinion could still shift further.

Kaldas said the public increasingly views the government as part of the problem.

"In the future, it will be a delicate balancing act for Egypt's leadership as they will try to maintain Western support as well," he said.

Edited by: Rob Mudge