Niger: One year after coup, junta remains vague on future

There was a moment of confusion before the dust finally settled. The roads leading to the presidential palace in Niger's capital Niamey remained blocked for hours on July 26, 2023, with some people demonstrating for President Mohamed Bazoum to remain in power.

Just before midnight, Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane made the fateful announcement on TV: "We, the Forces of Defence and Security, united in the National Council for the Salvation of the Fatherland (CNSP), have decided to call an end to the regime that you have known," Abdramane said, citing the deterioration of security as well as bad governance as the main reasons.

Initially there was some confusion as to who was going to take the lead in the CNSP. It took two days for General Abourahamane Tiani to eventually be endorsed as the president of the transitional government after what had been reported as considerable internal disagreement.

One year on, the junta seems to have found a balance of sorts, according to Ornella Moderan, a researcher at the Netherlands Institute for International Relations, Clingendael.

"Whether this balance will endure remains to be seen," Moderan told DW, stressing that internal tensions are typical for junta-led governments — and they're not necessarily a bad thing. "In some cases, this helps avoid that certain members become a bit too power struck," Moderan added.

Splitting from the West and ECOWAS

With the events of July 26, Niger joined the ranks of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which were already under military rule.

The coup soon resulted in Niger moving away from its Western partners, especially in international cooperation. This meant that Western nations lost the one partner they had left to rely on in the Sahel region, in fighting terrorism.

Furthermore, the coup put Niger at loggerheads with the ECOWAS regional bloc, which imposed sanctions and even threatened to intervene militarily to stabilize the situation.

This threat, however, appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Instead of forcing a return to constitutionality, ECOWAS saw the three Sahel states withdraw and form their own bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Moving away from the battlefield 

A year on, it is unclear what the junta in Niamey actually has to show for itself, since the Islamist threat undoubtedly remains.

But in the view of Nigerien security analyst Abdoul Moumouni Abass, the year of military rule also had its successes.

"Of course we are facing threats, our soldiers are being ambushed; 90% of the attacks our soldiers are facing are ambushes," Abass told DW.

"But when you see that the enemy is frequently carrying out such ambushes, this shows that their strength has been defeated in the battlefield. If it were not for the sanctions, our achievement in the fight against terrorism this year would be better than in previous years."

A military without a strategy

But not everyone agrees. Moussa Moumouni, who served as security advisor to the ousted President Bazoum, strongly opposes this stance. "In terms of security, the situation has worsened. Because since July 26, 2023, we have lost more than 780 security personnel in combat. Whereas during Bazoum's rule of two years and four months, we lost 57 security officers," Moumouni said. "God only knows how many civilians were killed."

Independent experts have also voiced concerns about the military government's record. Among them is Clingendael's Moderan, who blames the lack of a comprehensive strategy for this failure: "Niger had started to implement such a strategy. The coup put an end to this strategy, which had political, developmental and economic dimensions in addition to the military approach."

Changes to Niger's international affairs 

The junta seems to equally lack direction when it comes to the economy. The pressure on the economy of the landlocked country has been increasing, especially since Niger's falling out with ECOWAS. Just recently, a row with neighboring Benin led to the small coastal nation blocking the export of Nigerien oil to China.

This is why today Niger has to depend heavily on its alliance with other junta-led countries, Mali and Burkina Faso, says Moderan, distancing itself further from the partnerships with Western countries it used to pursue prior to the coup.

The West African nation is also flirting with Russia — as part of a "collective dynamic" of the three Sahel states turning their attention to the east, as Moderan puts it. And only a week ago, Niamey welcomed a Turkish delegation for a ministerial meeting between the two countries, as Turkey is also trying to increase its influence in Africa.

A transition with an open end

Immediately after taking power, General Tiani evoked a return to democracy after a three year transition. One year later, there is no longer any talk of this. "No single organ of the transition has been installed. There is only the CNSP," Moderan told DW. "It really is a quasi-exclusive military administration."

Rather than moving back towards democracy, many fear that Niger is gliding off into the opposite direction. Several potential interviewees contacted by DW said that they were afraid to talk publicly about the transition.

Maman Wada from Transparency International Niger is one of the few who remain outspoken in this tense political climate:

"The question of the elections bothers the military leadership," Wada told DW. "Very often, those who talk about it will be prosecuted or kidnapped. They cannot talk about the elections with impunity."

Meanwhile, former President Mohamed Bazoum remains in custody. It would appear that the question of what is to become of him is one of many unresolved decisions weighing heavily on the junta rulers.

Gazali Abdou (in Niamey) and Georges Ibrahim Tounkara contributed to this article.

This article was originally written in German.

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson