NATO searching for a new secretary-general

[Video transcript]

It's been one of the most popular guessing games in Brussels for years: 
Who will replace Jens Stoltenberg? The Norwegian NATO chief has been asked to stay on as head of the western military alliance four times, once even after he'd already accepted another job.  
 
(Oana Lungescu, former NATO spokesperson) 
"It is time for NATO leaders to find a good candidate. It's really important that a choice is made early enough and that it is delinked from both the European Union elections and the campaign for the United States elections." 
 
Just why the alliance has been unable to find a suitable replacement is not exactly clear, in part because there's no official procedure for doing so.
 
There has been an unofficial list of desired qualities: 

- experience as a head of state or government
- of a country with robust defense spending
- from a southern or eastern ally
- and preferably, finally — a woman.
 
Many names have come up — and gone down. Currently, Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, and outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte all want the job.  
 
Rutte has gradually emerged as the clear favorite, a "safer" choice with Moscow's war on Ukraine dominating the alliance agenda.
 
(Kristi Raik, International Centre for Defence and Security) 
"There is the sense that having somebody from the Baltic states to be at the helm of NATO would be somehow counterproductive, not helpful. And it's difficult to see what exactly the problem is because the relations with Russia are frozen at this point in any case."
 
(Teri Schultz)
"Mark Rutte is reportedly the only candidate who has been discussed by NATO ambassadors. And while this all takes place behind the scenes, Kaja Kallas is making clear she's noticed that what used to be considered the desired qualities in a new leader, which she fulfills, seem to have changed. Take a look:

(Kaja Kallas, Estonian Prime Minister) 
"It should definitely be from a country that has spent 2% of its GDP on defense. And it would be nice if it would be a woman. So it's logical it's Mark Rutte."
 
Estonia's defense spending will hit 3% of GDP while the Netherlands won't quite hit NATO's target of 2%.
 
The NATO dynamics are so closely watched that this exchange between Rutte and Kallas at a European Union summit led to suggestions he may have been using the opportunity to build consensus for the job on the other side of town. We asked:

(Mark Rutte, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister) 
"No, no, no, no, no, no."
 
But it's not only European support a new secretary general will need, with US elections looming.
 
(Ian Lesser, German Marshall Fund of the US) 
"There is still the question of picking someone who could adapt to a variety of possible outcomes in Washington. And some of those outcomes could be very challenging politically for Europe."
 
Jens Stoltenberg earned the title of the "Trump whisperer" because he was so successful at managing the then-US president's disdain for NATO.  
 
And Rutte may already have an advantage there, should it become necessary.
 
"We've become friends over the last couple of years."
 
But even though speculation has gone on for years, insiders say it's still too early to predict the outcome.
 
(Oana Lungescu, former NATO spokesperson) 
"Nothing is decided until everything is decided."
 
The one thing that does seem certain is that Jens Stoltenberg will finally get to leave the post as the second-longest serving NATO secretary general so far.