Myanmar is Becoming a Rogue State

With this ruling, the junta in Naypyidaw has ensured that Aung San Suu Kyi will not be able to participate in next year’s elections, observers are certain. Although she would not have been allowed to be a candidate -- according to the constitution -- she would still have been able to run an active campaign. Next year’s elections that the regime only announced because of international pressure will be the first free polls since 1990. These were won by Aung San Suu Kyi but the generals annulled the results and refused to step down. The only reason for Tuesday’s verdict was to prevent the 64-year-old from returning to politics before next year's poll. The junta is aware that the opposition would probably win free elections if the Nobel laureate was to participate. That’s why charges were lodged against Aung San Suu Kyi just days before her house arrest was supposed to come to an end. The charges -- like the trial itself -- were a first-class farce. A confused American, who believed he had to transmit a message from God to Aung San Suu Kyi, managed to get into her house and thus breach the terms of her house arrest. At last the junta had the pretext it had been looking for. The court’s guilty verdict had clearly been decided upon in advance. The commuting of the sentence to house arrest was cosmetic. The sentence is unacceptable to the West.

But it’s not only about Suu Kyi. The fact that the court also sentenced the 54-year-old American, John Yettaw, who forced his way into the Nobel laureate’s house, to a long jail term also shows that the leaders in Myanmar have learnt from North Korea. North Korea ran circles around the international community -- especially the US under President Barack Obama -- when it recently carried out a nuclear test and arrested and jailed two US journalists. And now the Myanmar junta is also running circles around the international community. It is making clear that it is in no way willing to make any concessions that could jeopardise its own survival. That was also clear in 2007 when the junta violated human rights and brutally suppressed an uprising by Buddhist monks. It was clear in 2008, when it did not allow international aid organisations to enter the Irrawaddy Delta after Cyclone Nargis struck. Thousands died without reason. And it seems clear now: a few weeks ago, Washington started speculating that the regime might be developing its nuclear capacity with North Korean help. According to newspaper reports, the junta would be in a position to build an atom bomb in five years. Consequently, India just stopped a North Korean ship which was en route to Myanmar.

What should be done in the face of this uncompromising behaviour? Considering the increasing poverty of the people of Myanmar it makes little sense to tighten sanctions. Can the West rely on China -- the junta’s closest ally -- to pressure Myanmar towards human rights and democracy? Unlikely. Will the other regional neighbours lead the country out of international isolation? This might be possible if ASEAN were considered a regional political entity like the EU. But in the current situation all the West can do is protest. It has to accept that the classic levers of international politics don’t seem to be working with Myanmar. It also has to accept that the country is gradually developing into a rogue state.

Author: Grahame Lucas
Editor: Anne Thomas