Munich Security Conference in the shadow of Donald Trump

The traditionally close ties between the US and Europe have defined the Munich Security Conference for decades. Despite some differences, there has always been a solid foundation. Everyone worked well together and respected each other.

But since US President Donald Trump has come into office, such certainty has been crumbling. This is why the conference has also acted as an indicator of how good trans-Atlantic relations are. And now it is set to kick off this coming Friday.

New tensions between the US and its allies?

One thing is certain: A different wind is now blowing from the United States after the first few weeks of Trump's second term as US president. "America First" is Trump's unwavering mantra, even if it comes at the expense of his allies.

These tensions are likely to shape some of the debates to be held in the conference rooms of Bayerischer Hof, the prestigious Munich hotel where politicians, military leaders and experts will meet from February 14 to 16.

Sixty heads of state and government are expected to attend the MSC, which is regarded as the world's most important forum for security policy.

From the new US administration, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have confirmed their attendance but not the new US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth.

In addition, conference chair Christoph Heusgen has announced that one of the largest delegations from the US Congress ever to attend the MSC is expected. Among the guests is also the new NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

'Ripped off' by Europe

The MSC is an informal meeting at which no decisions are made. That is why the event encourages an open exchange of views, and conflicts are not swept under the carpet.

And Donald Trump has already set a new, sharper tone in trans-Atlantic relations. "We were being ripped off by European nations both on trade and on NATO," read a quote by Trump during his election campaign published in the "Munich Security Report" to accompany the conference. He went on to say to Europe: "If you don't pay, we're not going to protect you."

According to Trump, the European NATO partners' insufficient investment in their armies is a thorn in his side. He has also repeatedly criticized Germany on this topic.

Previously, the US has paid the lion's share of NATO's costs and offered Europe reliable military protection. Trump now wants this to come with conditions: He is demanding that the allies spend 5% of their gross domestic product on defense. Germany is struggling to meet the 2% that is now regarded as a minimum requirement in NATO.

Republican Trump has already proven that he can drastically cut US funds from international organizations. According to the "Munich Security Report," Trump's camp has also justified this by arguing that even a global power like the US has only limited resources and must use them for the good of its own country. "Indeed, the notion of 'resource scarcity' has become a central premise of Republican foreign policy thinking," the report states.

Outlines of a peace plan for Ukraine?

This could also have a negative impact on aid for Ukraine, where the US had previously led the way. There is certainly no shortage of things to talk about for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump's Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, who are both expected in Munich.

In the run-up to the conference, rumors have been circulating that Kellogg could present the Trump administration's plan for ending the war in Ukraine at the security conference.

In response, conference chairman Heusgen has remained cautious: "We hope that Munich will be utilized, and we also have indications that it will be used to make progress towards peace in Ukraine."

Heusgen expressed the hope that a peace plan could take shape in Munich. The diplomat emphasized, however, that Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty would have to be preserved. Heusgen was previously a foreign policy adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and German ambassador to the United Nations in New York.

However, representatives of the Russian government have again not been invited to the MSC. The prerequisite for an invitation is "a willingness for dialogue," stressed Heusgen, "and as long as President Putin does not recognize the government in Kyiv or Zelenskyy, I do not think that such a dialogue is possible." Representatives of the Russian opposition and nongovernmental organizations, however, are welcome in Munich.

Trump's bid for Greenland

Unease and outrage were triggered in Europe by Trump's threats to annex territories by force if necessary, including Greenland, which is part of Denmark. US Vice President JD Vance is behind Trump's plans for expansion. Should he reaffirm these plans in Munich, he is likely to meet with fierce opposition, particularly from representatives of the EU and European states.

In response to Trump's threat, they warned that the US must abide by international law. "The integrity of borders is a fundamental principle of international law. This principle must apply to everyone," commented German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

It was not without reason that conference chair Heusgen has repeatedly emphasized the importance of international law ahead of the conference: "In my view, there is no better alternative to the order as laid down in the United Nations Charter."

German election looms large

German domestic policy will play a special role at this year's conference. The meeting will take place just one week before Germany's early federal elections on February 23 — and thus in the middle of the final stretch of the election campaign. Several leading politicians have confirmed their attendance, including the CDU's leader and top candidate, Friedrich Merz, who polls predict will win the election, making him the favorite to be Germany's next chancellor.

Among other topics, they are likely to focus on how much money Germany should invest in the Bundeswehr in the future and how it should be funded in light of tight budgets. The question is not whether, but how, Germany and Europe could do more for their own security. Now that Donald Trump has moved into the White House, this topic is likely to be discussed at the Munich Security Conference with greater urgency than ever before.

This article was originally written in German.

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