Mali breaks diplomatic ties with Ukraine

Mali's transitional military government has announced it is severing diplomatic ties with Ukraine.

The move, which Ukraine has branded as hasty and "regrettable," follows heavy fighting against Tuareg separatists in the Sahel nation, which resulted in significant casualties among government soldiers and Russian mercenaries.

Government spokesman Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga made the announcement on ORTM TV on Sunday, accusing Ukraine of complicity in the violence. He cited a confession by Ukrainian intelligence official Andriy Yusov, who allegedly acknowledged Ukraine's involvement in what Maiga described as a "cowardly, treacherous, and barbaric attack by armed terrorist groups."

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has condemned Mali's decision, issuing a statement on its website on Monday saying no evidence had been provided to show Kyiv played any role in the fighting and that Mali had not conducted a thorough review of the situation.

What happened during the rebel attack?

The attack in question, which occurred at the end of July in the northern region of Kidal, raised concerns about the potential spread of the Russia-Ukraine conflict into Africa.

According to the Tuareg separatists, several days of fighting near the village of Tinzaouatene on the border with Algeria resulted in heavy losses: 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Russian mercenaries, as well as 80 more linked to affiliated channels of Russia's Wagner Group —  one of Russia's heaviest losses to date in West Africa.

It took almost two weeks for Malian authorities to blame Ukraine for the attacks, claiming that Yusov of Ukraine's military intelligence agency appeared to acknowledge involvement on Ukrainian television last week.

"[The attackers] have received the necessary information to enable them to carry out a successful military operation against Russian war criminals," he said.

'Geopolitical confrontations' not unexpected, say analysts

Mali's announcement has broader geopolitical implications, particularly in light of a now-deleted Facebook post by the Ukrainian embassy in Dakar, Senegal, which expressed support for the attacks in northern Mali. This led Senegal to summon the Ukrainian ambassador for an explanation.

An unconfirmed photograph showing Tuareg fighters holding a Ukrainian flag has also since emerged online.

Younouss Soumare, a member of the Collective for the Defense of the Military, a pro-junta movement based in Mali, linked Ukraine's alleged actions to France, accusing the former colonial power of using its alliances to further destabilize Mali.

"France sent mercenaries to Ukraine to fight the Russians. It is the same France that relies on its neighbors to continue destabilizing us," Soumar told DW.

Lamine Diallo, a communications officer for Mali's Convergence for the Development of Mali party, told DW that the internationalization of local conflicts should not come as a surprise.

"Since the arrival of Russian instructors and the deteriorated relations between this country and Ukraine, we should expect geopolitical confrontations of this kind," he said.

'Too early' to draw conclusions about Ukrainian forces in Mali

However, other observers have advised caution against talking about an official Ukrainian presence in Mali without clear evidence.

"With regard to Ukraine's involvement, we need to have the necessary time to be able to analyze and truly authenticate who is behind its attacks against the Malian army and the Russian groups who [have said] they are there to help Mali deal with this growing insecurity for years," Jean Francois Marie Camara from the University of Legal and Political Sciences of Bamako told DW.

Nina Wilen, Africa program director for the Brussels-based Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, said only time will tell to what extent Ukraine is involved on the ground.

"It is still too early to talk about Ukrainian forces in Mali," she told DW.

"I am not completely sure that this is verified. If it turns out this is the case, Ukrainian forces in Mali, we can say that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is not limited to Ukrainian territory and is moving to other places, particularly in Africa."

What are the implications for regional stability?

While the situation in Mali might serve as a proxy for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the implications for the country and the region could be immense. The presence of the Wagner Group, alongside the alleged involvement of Ukrainian intelligence, could increase the influence of foreign actors in Mali's internal conflicts.

"Internationalizing a conflict also allows other actors to come in and turn it into a field of experimentation or confrontation between Western powers," said Diallo.

The Malian junta's decision to expel the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in June 2023 and rely on Wagner mercenaries marked a significant shift in the country's foreign policy. This decision has led to a resurgence of violence, as the Tuareg separatists, who had been part of a fragile peace agreement, resumed their armed struggle for independence.

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Edited by: Ineke Mules