Divided nations

Shots ring out, people run screaming through the streets and swathes of smoke fill the air. There are wounded people lying on the ground. These are some of the shocking pictures from Hama, stronghold of the Syrian opposition. They were posted on the Internet by eye witnesses, as journalists are not allowed in the country.

More than a hundred people were killed in this weekend's attacks on Hama, and activists say the numbers are increasing every day throughout the country. Human rights organizations estimate that more than 1,400 people have been killed since protests began five months ago.

Many Syrians are now hoping for a statement of condemnation from the United Nations Security Council. "If there is no clear international reaction, it would be a license for the Syrian regime to carry on killing," says Najib Ghadbian, a Syrian activist and political scientist based at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay on Tuesday urged the Syrian authorities to stop the bloodshed, warning that the world is bearing witness to the violence being inflicted on the Syrian people.

"The government has been trying to keep the world blind about the alarming situation in the country by refusing access to foreign journalists, independent human rights groups and to the fact-finding mission mandated by the Human Rights Council," she said, "But they are not succeeding. The world is watching and the international community is gravely concerned."

Row over resolution

A draft resolution has been up for discussion at the United Nations for weeks. But even though the paper only condemns violence against civilians and threatens no action, it has so far been blocked by Russia and China. The two permanent Security Council members - with power to veto - fear that a resolution could be the precursor to a Libya-style military intervention from NATO.

Non-permanent members of the council, like South Africa, Lebanon and Brazil, are also against any resolution. So too is India, which took over the rotating presidency of the Security Council from Germany on Monday.

The European Security Council members - including Britain, France and Germany - have now put four demands on the table: an end to violence, political dialogue, release of political prisoners, and a credible investigation of the violent battles.

Moscow, at least, could be open to discuss such proposals. As Syria's main arms supplier, Russia is officially refusing to countenance any kind of intervention, but behind the scenes the country is already negotiating with the Syrian opposition. The Russians are not as averse to a resolution as they always claim, says Ghadbian, who took part in a meeting in Moscow. He sees that as a sign that Russia won't protect Syrian President Bashar al-Assad forever.

German opposition

One country that supports the resolution and has relatively good relations to Russia is Germany, and the German opposition parties have criticized Chancellor Angela Merkel for not doing enough to lean on her counterpart in Moscow.

"Germany must finally use its good relations with Russia to isolate Assad properly," Green party leader Jürgen Trittin told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper on Wednesday. "Merkel and [Foreign Minister Guido] Westerwelle are showing shocking passivity."

Gernot Erler, deputy parliamentary leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party, was similarly unimpressed with Germany's leaders. "Why were the recent meetings in Berlin and Hanover not used to convince the Russians and the Chinese to alter their stance in the Security Council?" he asked in the Berliner Zeitung. "It is a farce that the Security Council has not yet been able to bring itself to condemn violence against the civilian population of Syria."

No NATO planes over Syria

Some member countries in the Security Council fear that the first fighter jets will start circling over Syria as soon as a resolution is passed, but analysts consider a military intervention unlikely. "For that to happen, the Arab League would have to agree, as with Libya," Mid-East expert Volkhard Windfuhr told news magazine Der Spiegel. "I can't see that happening at the moment."

Other commentators say that Syria's geo-political position rules out a military operation. The country borders Turkey, Iraq, Israel and Lebanon - all countries who constantly face their own share of crises and conflicts.

EU steps up sanctions

The European Union, meanwhile, is trying to increase the pressure on the Assad regime with strategic sanctions. Five more representatives of the Syrian government have now been denied access to the bloc, including Defense Minister General Ali Habib Mahmoud. That increases to 35 the number of Syrian leaders on the EU black list. Their European assets have also been frozen.

"Everything that weakens the regime is welcome," says Ghadbian. "But we should always consider how sanctions effect the Syrian population." He says economic sanctions would hurt those who are out on the streets demonstrating most.

Ghadbian suggests that Western nations would help the opposition more by withdrawing all their ambassadors and supporting the protestors financially. He believes Syrians need support more than ever now, and that protests would be stepped up for Ramadan. But Assad's soldiers won't stop shooting for the holy month either.

Author: Julia Hahn / bk
Editor: Michael Knigge