Kashmir: What's next after first election in a decade?

India-administered Kashmir has elected its first government since the region was brought under New Delhi's direct control five years ago.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped Kashmir's special constitutional status in 2019, an unprecedented move that downgraded and divided the former state into two centrally governed union territories — Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Both are ruled directly by New Delhi through its appointed administrators along with unelected bureaucrats and security setup.

The revocation of semi-autonomy sparked protests in the restive Muslim-majority region, which has struggled with an Islamist insurgency for decades. Authorities responded with mass arrests and a monthslong communications blackout.

Since then, Kashmir has not had an elected local government, and has been ruled by a governor appointed by New Delhi.

Voters in the region took part in India's national elections in June when Modi won a third term in power, but these were the first local elections since 2014. While polling was held in three phases — on September 18, September 25 and October 1 — amid tight security, the results were announced on Tuesday.

What did Modi say?

Results announced on Tuesday showed that an alliance of the opposition National Conference (NC) and Congress parties won the elections, with the NC and Congress securing 48 of the 90 seats in the assembly.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came second, winning in 29 constituencies, all from the Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu.

In an address to his party workers in New Delhi late Tuesday, Modi  said the peaceful election in the region was "the victory of the Indian Constitution and democracy."

"The people of Jammu and Kashmir gave the mandate to the NC alliance, I congratulate them too. If we look at the vote share percentage, BJP has emerged as the biggest party" in the region, he said.

Omar Abdullah, the 54-year-old NC leader, is widely expected to become the next chief minister.

"People have supported us more than our expectations. Now our efforts will be to prove that we are worth these votes,” he said after the results were announced, adding that the outcome was a rebuke to the policies implemented by Modi's party.

A powerless government?

The elections will allow Kashmir to have its own government and a regional legislature, called an assembly, rather than being directly under New Delhi's rule.

But the newly elected government will have restricted powers due to Jammu and Kashmir's current status as a union territory after the political changes in 2019. 

Key decisions will continue to be taken by Kashmir's New Delhi-appointed lieutenant governor, who will remain in charge of public order and police, and also wield substantial authority over the administrative machinery and key appointments.

New Delhi will also have the power to override legislation passed by the regional assembly.

This dynamic may lead to a governance model where the elected representatives have minimal influence over government, observers say.

"As it tests the limits of its authority, the new government will come into a lot of friction with the union government," A Wani, from the social sciences department of Kashmir University told DW.

"There will also be a push from the new government to harden domicile laws and press for statehood and some sort of special status." 

Navnita Chadha Behera, a political science professor at Delhi University and Kashmir expert, said the challenge for the NC-Congress alliance would be to find ways to listen to the Jammu region's political choices and for the federal government in New Delhi to let the Kashmiri government govern.

"One can only hope that they guard against any temptations to topple the government and engage in a constructive dialogue about restoring the statehood," Behera told DW.

To tackle security challenges in the region, she stressed, "the BJP government [in New Delhi] will be well advised to restore [Kashmir's] statehood and strengthen the new government's hands."

Will New Delhi grant Kashmir statehood?

NC leader Abdullah already said that the NC-Congress government, in its first Cabinet meeting, will pass a resolution to restore Jammu and Kashmir's statehood. But it will have little effect as that decision has to be taken in New Delhi. 

Abdullah also called on PM Modi to fulfil the promise he made to Kashmiri voters during the election campaign. 

"The PM is an honorable man... he promised the people of Jammu and Kashmir statehood and I hope he lives up to that," the NC leader said.

Radha Kumar, a former Kashmir interlocutor and a specialist on peace and conflict in South Asia, told DW that Kashmiri leaders will need the support of opposition MPs in parliament in New Delhi in their "battle for the powers that any elected administration rightfully deserves."

"For many opposition-headed states, what happens in Jammu and Kashmir is part of the larger struggle for federal rights," said Kumar.

Wani said he doesn't expect a major confrontation between Kashmiri leaders and New Delhi over the issue of statehood.

The political class in Kashmir "has been bereft of power for a long time," he noted, adding, "they will prioritize survival over all-out confrontation."

"We may see a graded confrontational approach, where the new government will also keep some channels of accommodation open," said Wani.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru