Japan's influence in Pacific comes up against China

Leaders from 18 member states and regions of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) recently concluded a three-day summit hosted by the Japanese government in Tokyo, with concerns over climate change and regional stability in Oceania topping the agenda.

Japan hosts a meeting with PIF leaders every three years, allowing Tokyo the opportunity to position itself as a partner for the region, which is seeking international support to ensure a "peaceful, safe and secure Blue Pacific region that contributes to global peace and security," according to a joint declaration.

The declaration called for Japan to provide greater support and cooperation in climate change, maritime security and defense and economic development.

"Japan has long been proactive in reaching out to developing nations, particularly those in the Pacific that were the scenes of great destruction during World War II," said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.

However, the rise of China in recent years has seen Beijing attempt to extend its sphere of influence into the Pacific, for example, through infrastructure projects and security deals.

"China is trying to build greater influence in the region, which runs completely counter to Japan's calls for a free and open Indo-Pacific," Hinata-Yamaguchi told DW. "Japan is not able to rip these countries out of China's arms, but it can provide beneficial alternatives."

China building influence in Pacific

Japan, the US and other regional countries were caught by surprise in 2019 when the government of the Solomon Islands severed its diplomatic ties with Taiwan and switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing.

In return, China has funded the construction of a new sports stadium in the country, along with advanced health care facilities, mobile telephone equipment, roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

On July 17, Beijing announced that it would inject an additional $20 million (about €18.4 million) into the country and help cover the cost of expanding its only international airport.

China and the Solomon Islands also signed a security pact in 2022. And while official details of the agreement are secret, leaks have suggested it includes a clause that permits China to deploy military personnel to the islands, for Chinese warships to be replenished locally and to use the country as a base for aerial surveillance of other Pacific Islands and Australia.

China has also been actively wooing Vanuatu, for example, by donating a $31-million presidential palace. There are reports that the government in Port Vila is considering allowing China to construct a military base and naval facilities.

The tiny Pacific state of Nauru has also switched its allegiance away from Taiwan, severing ties with Taipei in January 2024 and signing a new diplomatic pact with Beijing the following week.

Pacific nations have strategic significance for China

"China wants to increase its diplomatic influence over many of the small island states across the Pacific in order to expand its own sphere of influence," said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

"And it does not matter that these nations are geographically very small and have tiny economies," she told DW. "They control large maritime areas in the Pacific, they are strategically located and loosening their ties with the US, Australia, New Zealand or other countries would benefit Beijing immensely."

The joint declaration, while carefully avoiding specifically mentioning China, called for "the importance of the free and open international rules-based order in line with the international law."

The communique also opposed "unilateral attempts to change the status quo by the threat or use of force or coercion."

China's Foreign Ministry issued a statement shortly after the summit concluded on Thursday, saying Japan and other Pacific states should "help to promote peace, stability and development" in the region instead of criticizing China.

The Chinese state-run Global Times newspaper also accused Japan of using the summit to "economically entice" and, simultaneously "politically and militarily pressure" Pacific states to fall into line with its wishes.

What role can Japan play?

Much of the three days of discussions were given over to efforts to reduce the impact of rising sea levels due to climate change, which many Pacific states have called the single greatest threat to their survival.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan would "mobilize technology, know-how and financial resources” to assist islands in efforts to mitigate the effects.

Member states also agreed a joint action plan under which ships and aircraft of Japan's Self-Defense Forces will make more frequent visits to Pacific states and step up training and defense cooperation. 

A number of bilateral meetings yielded more specific assistance, with Japan agreeing to provide grant aid totaling 5 billion yen (€29.3 million/$31.5 million) to rebuild the terminal building at the Marshall Islands' airport, with the US contributing a further 1.2 billion yen.

Tokyo is also donating a fishery research ship to each of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu to help local officials to monitor fishery resources.

"Japan is also keen to use its soft power to assist these countries and that kind of outreach is far better than what a lot of other governments are doing," said Hinata-Yamaguchi.

"Tokyo knows it is far better to talk with these governments than to take the relationship for granted," he added.

However, Japan has yet to sign on to the Pacific Resilience Facility, which is a financing mechanism led by Pacific island finance and economic ministers to bring in international donors to risk-proof infrastructure against climate change.

"We welcome Japan's indication that they are considering a contribution to the Pacific Resilience Facility, but we encourage Japan to confirm earlier rather than later," said forum chair Mark Brown, the prime minister of the Cook Islands.

According to the PIF secretariat, China made an initial support pledge of $0.5 million to the facility. The US has pledged $4.5 million, Australia $2.8 million, while Saudi Arabia has pledged $50 million.

The Pacific Islands Leaders' Meeting (PALM) was launched by Japan in 1997 and has become Tokyo's primary diplomatic tool to build relationships with Pacific island countries. Representatives from 18 Pacific Islands Forum members and Japan participate in PALM.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn