Israel-Hezbollah conflict: What is behind Iran's restraint?

Amid international efforts to reach a cease-fire ahead of a potential ground invasion of Israel's forces in Lebanon, one of the key players in the conflict has been noticeably quiet.

Officially, Israel is not at war with Lebanon, but the Hezbollah militia — which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US and Germany, while the European Union classifies its armed wing as a terrorist group — is financed, equipped and trained by Iran.

"There seems to be a reluctance on the part of Iran to defend Hezbollah directly, which would entail a direct military confrontation with Israel," Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told DW.

This view is echoed by Fabian Hinz, who specializes in defense and military analysis at the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "I believe that a real military intervention is very unlikely for Iran," he told DW.

Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, offers a further explanation. "Iranian leaders believe the conflict has not yet reached a point where Hezbollah faces an existential threat," he told DW. 

Aziz added that Hezbollah still has the capacity to defend itself and endure this phase of the conflict without suffering significant losses.

"There is also the practical question of what Iran can do to assist Hezbollah that Hezbollah cannot do for itself as Iran's geographical distance limits its ability to offer direct military support," Azizi said.

Last April, Iran had launched a large-scale attack on Israel but was not able to inflict major damage.

Furthermore, Israel's recent killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the pager attacks on Hezbollah members "have further highlighted the extent of Israel's intelligence reach within Iran and across the region," Azizi said.

All of this has been weakening Iran's deterrent power as well as its credibility and any further military intervention in this conflict would carry a great risk, Hinz believes.

Iran's ideological strategy

Meanwhile, Iran's vice president, Javad Zarif, stated earlier this week that "we believe that Hezbollah is capable of defending itself."

For Hinz, this positioning is also very much in line with Iran's domestic strategy.

"Iran has repeatedly stated that the survival of the Iranian regime is its absolute priority," Hinz said, adding that this was not just "cynical power politics in the back room."

The state's survival is even codified ideologically, he explained.

"Iran's position is that Shiite Islam can only survive if the Iranian system survives, and accordingly, Iran does not want to put itself in substantial danger," he said.

There also appears to be another rationale behind Tehran's position.

"We saw [Iranian President Masoud] Pezeshkian at the General Assembly in New York sending conciliatory messages to the West by talking about the willingness of Iran to reengage with nuclear talks," RUSI's Ozcelik said.

Iran is biding its time

However, if Hezbollah lost its core strategic military assets and forward strike capability, Iran would be left vulnerable nevertheless, Ozcelik said.

"One of the most strategic consequences of Israel's escalated attacks inside southern Lebanon is that Iran could be losing its deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites," she told DW.

"Add to this its oil refinery sites and other critical national infrastructure that could impact Iran's already bruised and battered economy and its sanctioned trade relations," Ozcelik added.

She believes that Iran will choose to buy time during which it can put together a proactive approach on how to recover Hezbollah's strategic capability.

This might entail a closer watch over the organization and more micromanaging to help reconstitute Hezbollah's intelligence infrastructure, she added.

Iran could also increase arms deliveries to Hezbollah or send some advisors, Hinz of the IISS said.

"Iran has also repeatedly relied on non-state actors and so-called proxies to attack Israel," he added. In addition to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi militia in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq are aligned with Iran.

Sowing chaos and instability via Iranian-aligned proxy groups means that Iran has so far avoided direct consequences of the conflict, Ozcelik agrees.

"Iranians are not in close proximity to the fallout of the violence," she said, adding that "however, Palestinians and Lebanese are."

Edited by: Rob Mudge