Is Germany still able to act on foreign policy?

Germany's three-way coalition of center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) fell apart on the very day that Donald Trump was declared winner of the US presidential election. It was a day of international uncertainty about international relations.

The timing was no coincidence. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz(SPD)  dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) over irreconcilable positions on budgetary and economic issues. The dispute had an important foreign policy dimension that is directly linked to the US presidential election: Scholz wants to take on more debt to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion — because he expects Trump, as the next US president, to significantly reduce or completely stop US aid to Ukraine. Scholz wants to declare an emergency in Germany, which would enable him to release the so-called "debt brake," enshrined in the German constitution. Former Finance Minister Lindner did not agree with Scholz's plan.

 

Broad consensus on foreign policy

Germany's Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock — both members of the Green Party — expressed regret at the coalition's collapse at such a sensitive time in international politics. "The investments in Ukraine, the additional billions that would have been needed, would also have been investments in our own security," Baerbock said.

Chancellor Scholz will continue governing in a minority government and said he intends to call a vote of confidence in the Bundestag in January, which would make early elections mandatory by March, at the latest. Germany would thus have to wait around six months until it would have a new government capable of acting.

The main opposition, the center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) say that is far too long. Its foreign policy spokesman, Johann Wadephul, sent the following statement to DW: "We call on the Chancellor to call a vote of confidence in the Bundestag next week, and thus bring about new elections. It is his last chance to show responsibility for Germany. We cannot afford to be incapable of acting."

The CDU, which is expecting to win Germany's upcoming general election has signaled a willingness to cooperate. "Germany needs to have a stable government, as soon as possible. We will therefore only be ready t center-left o discuss partial cooperation in parliament, once Scholz has passed a vote of confidence," Wadephul explained.

Until new elections are held in Germany, Chancellor Scholz will have to piece together parliamentary majorities on a case-by-case basis — also on foreign policy issues, such as further support for Ukraine.

"It should be possible with the help of those votes to send a signal and increase German aid to Ukraine," according to Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Hoff told DW he sees no major differences between the SPD, the Greens and the CDU/CSU on other major international issues, such as the Middle East conflict. "That shows the great consensus we have in Germany on foreign policy issues. It is also a stabilizing factor in this time of crisis," Hoff added.

Simultaneous crises

The international situation seems more turbulent than it has been in a long time: in the US, an unpredictable Trump has been elected, but he won't take office until January 20th. In Germany, the world's third-largest economy and one of the most important countries in the EU, the government has just fallen apart. In France, Germany's closest partner, President Emmanuel Macron has been severely weakened domestically, and the country is extremely polarized. All of this is happening against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and China's aggression in the South China Sea.

"The situation is very serious," warns Henning Hoff. "On the other hand, this is now a window of opportunity for Europeans to act, to take concrete steps to position themselves vis-à-vis the Trump administration. That would include sending a clear signal that Europe is not only prepared to do more for Ukraine but also for its own defense."

The break-up of Germany's coalition government has triggered concern on the EU level: "Europe is not strong without a strong Germany," said EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola ahead of this week's EU summit. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo warned that without a strong Germany, the EU would not be able to make important decisions.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, on the other hand, is unfazed: He said he is convinced Germany would continue fulfilling its obligations in defence and foreign policy. 

This article was originally written in German.

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