Cameroon: To Biya or Biya? That is the question

When the central African state of Cameroon goes to the polls later this year, 92-year-old President Paul Biya will most probably be on the ballot again for an eighth consecutive term, making him the longest-serving ruler in Africa.

"[Biya's] party members have already written a series of motions of support asking him to stand," said Dr. John Akpo, a political commentator living in Cameroon.

"There is no doubt about President Paul Biya's candidacy for the next election," he added — despite widespread concerns about his health.

Elvis Ngolle Ngolle, a member of Biya's Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM), was less categorical but told DW that the party was gearing up for the 2025 elections. "Any talk about preparing for a post-mandate is premature and amounts to speculative analysis," he said.

92 and counting

Biya has ruled Cameroon for more than 42 years. If he runs again and is reelected, he will be 99 years old by the time the next elections come around in 2032 — if he gets to live that long.

The nonagenarian leader has even attracted support from some opposition parties but Akbo cast doubt on their sincerity.

"Those in opposition calling for the return of President Paul Biya are satellite parties that were created by the same ruling party to fight the [actual] opposition," Akpo explains.

"This is the greatest wickedness that has fallen on this nation and many Cameroonians are not proud of it," he told DW.

Cameroon, a fractured nation

Paul Biya is credited for establishing a multi-party democracy in Cameroon and for deepening the nation's ties with Western governments.

But a seven-year civil war led by Anglophone separatists in the southwestern and northwestern regions has dampened the country's economic prosperity.

"I'm not sure Biya would have allowed these crises to escalate," lawyer and opposition politician Tamfu Richard said, suggesting that the president's age may have hampered his ability to resolve crises that he might have been able to deal with better in the past. 

"He's unable to go to those zones due to his age," he added, highlighting that the president has no first-hand experience of what the situation on the ground might actually be like. 

Rather than trying dialogue, his critics say that the president has clamped down on political opposition, jailing hundreds of peaceful protesters, including the runner-up in the 2018 presidential election Maurice Kamto, who spent nine months in jail without charges in 2019 and was freed only after heavy international pressure.

A marriage of inconvenience

The ruling CPDM party depends heavily on support from its coalition partners, mainly the Democratic Movement for the Defense of the Republic (MDR) as well as a faction of the Union of the Populations of Cameroon (UPC), to maintain control of parliament.

But support for both MDR and UPC have waned, with the former winning just one seat in the 2020 parliamentary elections while the latter was barred from running.

However, the two parties still remain important to the ruling government as part of a broader coalition with another group of smaller parties dubbed the "G20."

The "G20" came about in 2018 to counter the rising dominance of Maurice Kamto, the leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM) party and a key opposition figure.

Kamto has been touted as a possible successor to the president. However, Biya's son, Franck Biya, has also been increasingly visible in political circles, and is believed to be being groomed to take over from his father.

Religion versus politics

Earlier this week, there were local media reports of Catholic bishops weighing in on the political situation in Cameroon during their 48th annual seminar in the western city of Buea. Some reportedly called on the president to transfer power, and for the government to create better living conditions for people.

The bishops' comments drew stark criticism from government circles but the communications director of the Diocese of Buea, Solomon Lyonga, denied that any resignation demands had been made.

"No bishop has asked the president to step down," he told DW. "Rather, the bishops have made calls on the government to improve the well-being of Cameroonians."

The Catholic Church has a significant influence over the country's predominantly Catholic population. Any political position taken by the Church could potentially sway public opinion.

"The bishops are not fighting with the government, the church and the state can coexist. The relationship must not be conflictual," Lyonga further stressed.

A fragile economic climate

Cameroon's economic condition has shown some signs of recovery in recent years but in 2023, the country's real GDP growth slowed to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in 2022, according to the World Bank.

Various factors, including higher domestic inflation, fiscal consolidation, and internal conflicts, have contributed to the deceleration.

Despite the challenges, there was a slight rebound in early 2024, with real GDP growing by 3.7% year-on-year, driven by improved performance in services and export-oriented agricultural production.

At the same time, poverty reduction stagnated, with about 23% of the population living below the extreme international poverty line.

Recent corruption indices have branded Cameroon as one of the most corrupt nations in the world.

Akpo said that "corruption is at the bone marrow of every political being in Cameroon."

"State projects have been abandoned for personal projects, Cameroonians are unable to eat, and Cameroonian teachers are unable to afford basic living conditions," he lamented.

To Biya or not to Biya? That is the question

Cameroon also faces a slew of structural weaknesses such as poor infrastructure, limited internet connectivity, and heavy dependence on commodity exports.

Addressing these issues is crucial for achieving sustainable economic growth and reducing poverty, analysts agree. But will this happen under yet another Biya presidency?

Despite the doubts over his ability to run the country at the age of 92, a fragmented opposition plagued by infighting has also failed to provide Cameroonians with any clear alternatives.

Lawyer and opposition supporter Michele Ndoki attributes Biya's survival as president to some Cameroonians wanting "power to remain the same."

"The question is whether or not he's able to perform his duty as the president of the republic," she said. 

"We [the opposition] have been saying no."

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson