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European powers resume nuclear talks with Iran

January 13, 2025

Little progress on nuclear diplomacy is expected as France has warned that Iran's uranium-enrichment program is "nearing the point of no return."

https://p.dw.com/p/4p6lv
Metal tubes with Iranian flags on them
Iranian uranium centrigfuges seen at the Natanz research facility Image: AEO Iran/AFP

Representatives from Tehran and the "E3" grouping of the United Kingdom, France and Germany are set to sit down in Geneva this week for two days of talks that are expected to include the topic of Iran's nuclear program.

The meetings, scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, come a week after President Emmanuel Macron told a French foreign policy conference that Iran and its nuclear program presented the "main strategic security challenge" for the European Union.

The E3 comprises the remaining European signatories to a faltering 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers that allowed sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable proof that the country was not producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

The deal has mostly fallen through after Donald Trump pulled the United States out and reimposed sanctions during his first term as president in 2018. Iran is now widely considered to be approaching advanced uranium enrichment toward weapons-grade levels.

In December, Germany, the United Kingdom and France released a statement expressing "extreme concern" over Iran's enrichment capacity.

"We strongly urge Iran to reverse these steps, and to immediately halt its nuclear escalation," it said.

The statement came after Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported that Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% purity, approaching the 90% level needed to produce a weapon.

Last week, Macron said the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program was "bringing us very close to the breaking point," adding that EU partners to the nuclear deal should consider reimposing sanctions if there is no progress from Tehran on addressing the concerns.

Macron said Iran's uranium enrichment was nearing the "point of no return."

Iran denies France's assessment 

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei called Macron's statement "baseless" and "deceitful," while accusing France of not adhering to its obligations under the nuclear deal.

The government has always denied that it is aiming to produce nuclear weapons, and has claimed that its nuclear activities are "peaceful" and "within the framework of international law."

Baghaei said a "wide range" of topics would be discussed in Geneva, including the nuclear issue.

"The primary objective of these talks is to remove the sanctions," Baghaei said.

Is Iran developing a nuclear weapon?

The French Foreign Ministry on Thursday said the talks were an effort toward a "diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program, the progress of which is extremely problematic."

"This is the continuation of the talks we had in December," Baghaei said.

Potential for more pressure on Iran

In December, Iran and E3 representatives met for closed-door talks on the nuclear deal, with little details shared other than an Iranian Foreign Ministry statement that the discussion was "progressive."

That sit down came after the US, UK and EU in November rejected an earlier offer from Iran to cap uranium enrichment at 60% and allow further inspections of nuclear facilities.

Subsequently, the E3 filed a motion at the IAEA, demanding a "comprehensive" report confirming Iran's compliance with the JCPOA.

Iran could face a return of the UN Security Council sanctions regime after the nuclear deal formally expires in October, and the IAEA report would be the first step toward that outcome.

"In the coming months, we will have to ask ourselves whether to use ... the mechanism to restore sanctions," Macron said last week, referring to October's expiration date.

The mechanism would allow nuclear deal signatories to reimpose harsher UN sanctions on Iran in cases of the "significant nonperformance" of commitments.

Since the United States pulled out in 2018, Iran's documented development of nuclear material has given Western negotiators little basis for compromise.

In a June 2024 statement responding to an IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program, the E3 said Iran's continued nuclear development was "unprecedented" for a state without a nuclear weapons program.

The statement also said Iran had "significant" quantities of highly enriched uranium, "from which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded."

The administration of US President Joe Biden has tried to revive the deal, and reportedly came close in 2022, but talks fell through, and negotiations since have gone nowhere.

Nazila Golestan, a Paris-based political activist, told DW in December that Iran's weakening regional influence and growing domestic unrest leave the regime in a vulnerable position.

"The government faces a dual crisis: declining authority at home and diminishing power abroad. These pressures may force Iran to adopt a more conciliatory stance in international negotiations," she said.

The talks in Geneva also come a week before Trump's return to the White House. His administration is widely expected to take a hard line on Iran and its nuclear program. 

Written with material from France's AFP news agency.

DW's Farsi department contributed to this report.

Wesley Rahn Editor and reporter focusing on geopolitics and Asia