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PoliticsIran

Iran-Israel: What are the two sides' defense strategies?

October 2, 2024

The escalation between Israel and Iran has intensified fears of a wider war. What are the strategic and military considerations that could drive Iran and Israel to either escalate, or deescalate?

https://p.dw.com/p/4lL3n
Damage at an Israeli restaurant in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel
Iran's missile attack on Israel was twice as large on October 1 and caused more damage than the previous attack in AprilImage: JACK GUEZ/AFP

For Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Tuesday's missile attack on Israel is "concluded, unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation."

"In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Araghchi, who used to be a senior member of Iran's nuclear negotiating team, said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

So far, Iran has argued that Tuesday's attack with around 180 missiles had come in response to Israel's recent killings of Hezbollah leaders and its current incursion in Lebanon.

Tehran said the missiles had only targeted Israel's military infrastructure.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking at a microphone
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the latest attack is concluded, as long as Israel does not retaliateImage: Frank Franklin II/AP Photo//picture alliance

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to fight back. "Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it," he said on Tuesday.

The US said it would support Israel to ensure Iran faced "severe consequences" for Tuesday's attack. The Pentagon also confirmed that it had fired around a dozen interceptors against the Iranian missiles.

In turn, said Simon Wolfgang Fuchs, a Middle East professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards explicitly threatened the US.

"They said if you attack our refineries, we will set fire to your refineries as well as refineries and oil fields throughout the region, including in Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain," he told DW.

Israelis take shelter during an air raid siren after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles
Across Israel, alarm sirens sent civilians into shelters on October 1Image: Ronen Zvulun//REUTERS

Israel 'not interested in deescalating'

And yet, many in Israel view the current situation as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to turn the entire Middle East upside down and decisively weaken Iran, Fuchs added.

"Israel is anything but interested in deescalating the situation at the moment," he said.

However, if Israel were to target Iranian oil facilities or even nuclear installations, the situation in the entire Middle East would become truly unpredictable, he said.

According to U.S. website Axios, a "significant retaliation" will be launched within days. According to their reporting, Israeli officials said that oil production facilities and other strategic sites would be in the focus.

Lebanese civilians who fled Israeli bombardment on Beirut's southern suburbs sit on the street
Israel has started a limited incursion in Lebanon after killing several leading Hezbollah fighters since September, causing hundreds of thousands to fleeImage: JOSEPH EID/AFP

Israel has been fighting the Iran-backed terror group Hamas in its war in Gaza — which was triggered by the militia's attack on Israel on October 7 — for almost a year in the country's south.

It has also increasingly attacked the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon — whose armed wing is labelled as terrorist group by the European Union — following a year of limited fighting at Israel's northern border.

This week alone, Israel carried out a least a dozen airstrikes against targets in Beirut's southern suburbs while Hezbollah kept firing rockets into Israel

Meanwhile, strikes by the Iran-linked Houthi group in Yemen continue.

On Wednesday, the Houthis said they had launched strikes "deep into Israeli territory".

Dangerous escalation

Further reports point to up to 40,000 Iran-aligned fighters who are on hold in neighboring Syria, near the border with Lebanon.

"Fighters from Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan have previously declared their solidarity with Hezbollah and a commitment to fight if called upon," said Burcu Ozcelik, an expert in Middle East security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

"The risk of a buildup of Arab fighters drawn from across the so-called axis of resistance [countries and groups that view the US and Israel as enemy] coalescing on Syria's porous border to support Hezbollah has been brewing for some time," she added.

Lebanese Hezbollah fighters in uniform holding guns
Up to 40,000 additional Shiite fighters are said to wait in Syria for their call to support Hezbollah in LebanonImage: Fadel Itani/NurPhoto/IMAGO

In her view, increasing the potential impact of the Iranian proxies is part and parcel of Iran's two-pillar security policy: "A latent military nuclear capability and the deployment of a network of aligned militia, or the 'Ring of Fire', which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, armed groups in Syria and Iraq and the Ansar Allah, or Houthi movement, in Yemen," she said in a recent analysis on the think tank's website.  

"The first pillar has served to constrain Iran from taking overt belligerent action against Israel out of fear that an Israeli retaliation on its territory would damage its nuclear programme, setting it back by years and at great cost," she wrote, adding that the second pillar by definition "requires ongoing organizational resilience and offensive military competence of its allies."

But given the current escalation it's unclear whether these two pillars will avert a wide regional war.

"If Israel's limited raids into southern Lebanon would lead to a prolonged entanglement and combat with Hezbollah on the ground, this might trigger [these] Iran-linked fighters to try to infiltrate into Lebanon," she told DW. 

Israel-Iran escalation has shattered precedents, expert says

Edited by: Andreas Illmer

Jennifer Holleis
Jennifer Holleis Editor and political analyst specializing in the Middle East and North Africa.