Why is India's PM Modi visiting Ukraine after Russia?

Kyiv is due to welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 23, on the eve of Ukrainian Independence Day, and just over a month after Modi visited Moscow.

His visit is sure to envoke mixed feelings among his Ukrainian hosts. India has persevered in maintaining close ties to Russia despite the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, at the cost of significant irritation to Kyiv and its allies.

While Modi has called for peace, he has also refused to directly hold the Kremlin responsible for the war.

This was also illustrated during Modi's trip to Russia in July and his meeting with President Vladimir Putin, which coincided with Moscow's deadly attack on a Ukrainian children's hospital.

The Indian prime minister responded with a carefully worded comment.

"When innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying," Modi said at the time.

First visit of Indian leader to Ukraine in decades

In turn, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Modi's visit to Russia as a "disappointment."

"It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day," Zelenskyy wrote online.

Now, Modi is set to make his first visit to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, and the first visit by an Indian leader to Ukraine for about 30 years.

"India has substantive and independent ties with both Russia and Ukraine and these partnerships stand on their own," Tanmaya Lal, Secretary (West) at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told reporters during a media briefing on Monday.

India wants peace talks

Experts say that this visit is a balancing act for India, which also gives New Delhi a chance to urge peace negotiations.

 But Indian diplomacy has to maintain a difficult balance.

"Russia is a long-term traditional ally and Ukraine also has had very friendly relations with India. It is a difficult task to manage this, especially because Ukraine has received strong support from the West, with which India also has good relations," Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian ambassador, and a distinguished fellow at the Gateway House think tank, told DW.

"India wants to expand, consolidate and maintain its ties with Russia," he said, adding that New Delhi was not concerned that the Kyiv visit could jeopardize India's relations with Moscow.

Tiptoeing between US, Russia, China

Military, trade and diplomatic ties between Russia and India already run deep.

India purchases over 40% of its oil and 60% of its armaments from Russia, and also imports significant amounts of coal, fertilizer, vegetable oil and precious metals.

The fact that Russia is being shunned by the West over the Ukraine invasion is working in India's favor, as it motivates Moscow to pursue even closer ties. Also, New Delhi is wary that alienating Moscow could push Russia closer to China, which is India's major rival in Asia.

Complicating the geopolitical calculation even further, the US and other Western countries are irritated by Modi's Russia-friendly stance and by his meeting with Putin.

However, the West also doesn't want India to lose this influence in Moscow, as India could serve as a counterbalance to China when trying to sway the Kremlin.

What will Modi do in Kyiv?

"India will try to project itself as a peacemaker and engage in humanitarian assistance," Amit Julka, an assistant professor of International Relations at Ashoka University, told DW.

"Despite India's closeness to the US, there are undercurrents of suspicion. The Ukraine visit will also serve as damage control in terms of the optics. While it enjoys close ties with Russia, India does not want to alienate the West," Julka said.

India's Foreign Ministry said that New Delhi would not unveil a peace plan in Kyiv, but India was ready to support the negotiation of a peace settlement.

What else is on the agenda?

Apart from Russia's war on Ukraine, there are several other items on that Modi will likely discuss with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"Defense and economic cooperation, and the role of India in the eventual rebuilding of post-war Ukraine will also be discussed," said former ambassador Bhatia.

"Modi is also likely to express gratitude towards the Ukrainian government for their help in evacuating Indian students after the war broke out," he added.

Before the full-scale war in Ukraine, India had about 19,000 students enrolled in Ukrainian universities. Following the Russian invasion in February 2022, India, Ukraine and Poland worked together to evacuate most of them in a push dubbed "Operation Ganga."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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