How Germany is preparing for a Trump presidency

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) has a close and friendly relationship with US President Joe Biden. Scholz has made no secret of his hope that Biden will beat Republican challenger Donald Trump in the presidential election later this year.

That's a mistake, says Jens Spahn of Germany's largest opposition party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which was in a coalition with the SPD during Trump's first term in office from 2016 to 2020.

"I think Trump will very likely be the next president of the US," Spahn told DW on the sidelines of the Republican convention in Milwaukee this week. "We shouldn't make the same mistake we did during his last presidency. Back then, no one had a network of contacts with Trump's team. This time we should know beforehand and build up contacts with him and his team. That's why it's important to be here."

Uncertain future for Ukraine

Concern has mounted in Germany with the nomination of JD Vance as Trump's running mate, who has doubled down on cutting US support for Ukraine. "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine," Vance famously said in an interview with former Trump adviser, Steve Bannon, just a few days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Leading German figures are paying heed to the warning. Under Trump's leadership, "the US would set different priorities. Europe would have to take care of its own defense and also take on most of the burden of supporting Ukraine," Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) told the news agency Reuters. 

Trump had in fact already demanded that Germany and Europe step up their own defense during his presidency.

"But the problem is that Germany and Europe are much more vulnerable today than they were in 2016, because Russia is not only threatening Ukraine, but the whole of Europe, and Europe is still very dependent on the US in terms of security policy," Dominik Tolksdorf from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) told DW.

"However, Europeans can at least assess Trump better today than in 2016," he added. "If Donald Trump were to win the election, we should still look for ways to maintain reasonably constructive relations."

Long-range US weapons in Germany

Behind the scenes, German leaders have long been preparing for a possible second Trump presidency, according to Michael Link, a lawmaker of the smallest party in Scholz's coalition, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP).

Link is the the German government's transatlantic coordinator, and also attended the US Republican Party convention in Milwaukee as a guest. "The biggest challenge for any preparations is Trump's unpredictability," Link told DW. "No one can say for sure which parts of his political program Trump would implement in a second term. We must therefore strengthen our own ability to act. That goes for the European Union above all."

In response to the perceived threat from Russia, Germany has significantly boosted its defense spending. Chancellor Scholz took a further step just a few days ago at the NATO summit in Washington, where he agreed with President Biden to station long-range US weapons in Germany.

"Many of the weapons systems that have now been agreed on were first considered during Trump's presidency," Tim Thies of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg told DW. And in fact, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Germany will foot the bill for the deployment. "The German government seems to be anticipating any demands from a possible future President Trump," Thies remarked.

Remembering Trump's first term in office

In 2016, German politicians were caught by surprise when Donald Trump beat Hilary Clinton in the presidential race. Several of them had made some extremely undiplomatic comments during that election campaign, most notably then-Foreign Minister and current German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who called Trump a "hate preacher."

Michael Link points out that Biden respects Germany as a partner, and also the EU as an institution and has invested much in multilateral partnerships such as the G7 and the UN.

A second Trump administration would be dramatically different, Link fears: "Trump relies on bilateral relations and new transactional 'deals' instead of existing alliances. He does not respect the EU as an equal partner and would try to play the European states off against each other," Link warned.

However, he is also certain: "If Donald Trump is re-elected, despite all the America First rhetoric, he will realize that the US will still be dependent on allies," said Link, pointing to relations with China as an example: "The US and the EU can have a much greater impact if they work together instead of working against each other."

This article was originally written in German.

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