Germany risks EU 'chain reaction' with new border checks

Theoretically, seamless internal borders and unhindered travel are what the European Union's Schengen Area is all about. That is, unless you're Germany's center-left federal coalition government, shaken by two historic state election results for the far right and a terrorist stabbing by a suspected failed asylum seeker. 

"Until we achieve stronger border protection with the joint European asylum system, we must further protect our national borders," Interior Minister Nancy Faeser of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) said Monday in the German capital.

According to Faeser, stricter border rules would allow for a "massive step-up in rejections" of asylum seekers and help deal with Islamist terrorism and serious cross-border crime.

The announcement comes after weeks of intense debate sparked by a knife attack that killed three people in Solingen, a town just north of Düsseldorf in western Germany. The suspect is a 26-year-old Syrian man due for deportation and with links to the so-called "Islamic State" group, which claimed responsibility for the attack.

Less than a week after the attack, the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party made big gains in state elections in eastern Germany, finishing first in Turingian and second in Saxony. The results have put pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's embattled coalition government as more Germans want the country to get tougher on immigration and border controls.

What exactly is Germany planning?

As of next Monday, Germany will introduce more systematic land border checks for six months on people arriving by bus, train or car from Schengen zone neighbors Belgium, France, Denmark, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.

The country introduced similar controls in October 2023 on its borders with Poland, the Czech Republic and non-EU country Switzerland, and controls have been in place much longer at its Austrian border. Those measures have seen more than 30,000 people turned away since, according to the Interior Ministry.

However, the full details of the latest plan — for example, the frequency and intensity of identity document checks — and how exactly it would comply with Schengen rules and EU law remain unclear.

Germany's plan allows for systematic checks to be imposed temporarily for up to two years at most in practice when there is a specific threat to security. However, both Schengen rules and EU law enshrine the right to seek asylum and the principle of non-refoulement. A detailed proposal is expected this week.

What's the big deal for Germany's neighbors?

Bordered by nine countries, Germany is at the geographic and economic heart of the EU. Travelers from those countries will now be subjected to increased vigilance and potentially time-consuming checks, which could snarl traffic at borders, slow transit and even affect the economy. According to the German Federal Employment Agency, some 240,000 people from neighboring countries commute into the country for work.

On Tuesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk slammed the announcement as "unacceptable" and said his government would call urgent consultations with other affected countries.

"What Poland needs is not an increase in controls at our border but greater involvement of countries such as Germany in guarding and securing the EU's external borders," Tusk said in comments reported by the German news agency DPA.

There is also the question of what happens to people turned away from German borders. On Monday, Austria's conservative interior minister, Gerhard Karner, vowed that his country would not take in any rejected asylum seekers or migrants.

"There's no room for negotiation here. It's the law. I have therefore instructed the director of the Federal Police not to carry out any transfers," Karner told Bild, a German tabloid.

What does it mean for people seeking protection in Germany?

The German government's intention is to turn more people away and reduce irregular migration. According to Alberto-Horst Neidhardt of the European Policy Center think tank, the result could be a backlog of people stranded as Germany refuses to take people in and neighbors refuse to take them back.

"Chaotic scenes of camps could come to mark some of the most [congested] entry points," Neidhardt told DW.

However, the EU migration policy expert didn't think that was very likely. "I doubt that Germany has sufficient capacity and well-trained border forces to efficiently guard all its land borders."

What does it mean for the EU asylum system?

A more realistic concern, Neidhardt warned, is that the move could set off a "chain reaction, with countries such as France or the Netherlands where coalition partners were elected on anti-immigration platform following suit."

"The honeymoon following the introduction of long-awaited reforms in the area of migration and asylum could be over, with realpolitik, short-termism and national interests taking the EU and national political agendas by storm," he said.

Mireia Faro Sarrats of the European Council on Foreign Relations agreed it could inspire similar moves elsewhere.

"This will likely set a precedent for other EU member states that are not very supportive of migration, such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, to claim some kind of security threat," she told DW.

What does it tell us about the mood in Germany?

Many observers have been quick to point out that it is a sign of how far Germany's stance on immigration has changed since the 2015 European migrant crisis. Back then, under the center-right government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, the country largely opened its borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees arriving from Syria and elsewhere.  

According to Neidhardt, the increased border checks should be understood as a  "political message in response to security-related anxieties among voters rather than an effective answer to the security threats cited by the government."

"While raising public expectations that internal borders will be sealed, the reintroduction of controls will, however, not prevent all irregular arrivals," he said.

Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp